[War_ooc] Canada 2013

[Michael Downey]

Leader: Prime Minister R. Leon MacIntyre
Country: Canada
Ruling Party/Coalition: Liberal Party of Canada (Majority Government,
165/308 Seats)
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Political Landscape:
The Conservatives win a majority in 2009 (under the election calender
set out by Act C-16 of Parliament), taking 160 of 308 seats. The
bitter defeat of the separatists in a referendum in Quebec by a 62%
earlier that year left the Bloc Quebecois reeling; the Liberals were
able to sweep up most of the province and become a strong opposition
to Prime Minister Harper's government. The NDP did not fair very well
either, taking only just enough seats to remain an official party.

However the recession of the 2010-2011 caused economic slowdown in the
United States occurred at an inopportune time for the Conservatives;
failures by the Harper government to reinvigorate the Canadian beef
and cattle industry globally and find a common border policy with the
United States combined with general irritation at the recession caused
headaches in the approval polls that would dog the CPC.

At the same time, many backbenchers in the Conservative caucus felt
that the PMO was concentrating too much power into itself and ignoring
the cabinet and party as a whole. Deep divides began to grow between
the party leadership and rank-and-file MPs, especially ones from
Eastern ridings.

The 2012 budget introduced by the Harper administration cut back
significantly the transfer payments diverted from the Western
provinces to the East, and also contained several other taxation and
spending clauses that the Quebec provincial government quickly railed
against. Combined with the growing infighting within the party itself,
the Liberals were able to bring the government down in a
non-confidence vote.

Very quickly, the Liberals maneuvered themselves into a strong
position over the Conservatives. The Bloc Quebecois had completely
imploded, leaving the Liberals to once again have their way with that
province. Secondly, Harper was unable to reconcile longstanding
disputes between the 'Eastern' and 'Western' wings of the
Conservatives Party left over from the merger of the Canadian Alliance
and Progressive Conservative Party. This infighting on the part of the
Conservatives played right into the hands of the Liberals, who
traditionally had a closer relationship with their provincial
branches.

Finally, concentration of media power in Toronto and Montreal
(traditionally dominated by the Liberals) and better support in urban
areas was the a decisive advantage against the Conservatives, who drew
their traditional support from more rural parts of Canada.

The Liberals won the election with a 165-seat majority, with the
Conservatives rounding out second with 135. The NDP were clobbered,
keeping only the most far-left ridings scattered throughout Canada and
backed only be die-hard socialists who wanted some voice in
Parliament. Their more moderate members, such as former leader Jack
Leyton, either retired or defected to the Grits. It is rumored that
the NDP may not have the funds to continue operating beyond 2014.

R. Leon MacIntyre, former Premier of New Brunswick and five-year
veteran of the House, was selected by the party caucus as leader (and
thus PM) just prior to the election. However his ascent was not
without stiff competition from more prominent Liberal MPs from Quebec
and Ontario. Post-election, the Liberal backbenchers have made it
quite clear that the dictatorial rule past prime minister's have held
over the party caucus will not fly well, pointing to the downfall of
Prime Minister Harper. Thus far the new PM has spared the rod and
promised more open voting for the government side of the house.

Stephen Harper is down, but not out. While he returned to the
Opposition side of the House, he's been impressive as a backbencher;
Age and his defeat have mellowed his rhetoric a bit, and he's been
said to be using his newly-acquired free time (such as it is) to
pursue a second
master's degree, this time in psychology. He is conspicuously not
commenting on whether or not he'll try for the top again.

Seating is as follows:
Liberals- 165
Conservatives- 135
NDP- 8

Economy:
Unavoidably, the recession of 2010-2011 affected Canada through its
large and intricate trade relationship with the United States. The
large automotive industry of Southern Ontario was hardest hit, while
the country's massive oil, energy and logging industries shrugged the
recession off with only limited market shrinkage. Tight inspection and
regulation of imported cattle feed and Federal investment into new
forms of inoculation has allowed the beef industry to weather the
recession as best as can be imagined, and a growing market in China
and the rest of East Asia has allowed the Canadian cattle industry to
start getting back on its feet.

White-collar crime has become an issue in Canada, where it has not
been nearly as investigated or prosecuted as in the United States. The
bankruptcy of several prominent Toronto-based companies in early 2011
brought this issue much further into the public eye, and the MacIntyre
Government has in coordination with the RCMP's Financial Crimes
Department promised a crackdown on corporate fraud.

Regional economic imbalance has slowly been dealt with by a growth of
mining and oil exploration in the Territories and offshore oil profits
in Atlantic Canada. Finally, after well over twenty years, the
Atlantic fish stocks have recovered and are entering into a large
growth stage thanks to good administration and environmental
protection by Canada with a little help from the US, though stocks may
not quite reach pre-moratorium levels. Rigorous Coast Guard and Navy
patrols have kept European trawlers not there by invitation out of
Canadian fishing waters. Now all Ottawa has to do is keep Canadian
boats from over fishing.

The Territories are still heavily dependent upon transfer payments
from Ottawa, however.

Social Issues:
Canada was caught in the post-2010 religious upswing, though not as
much as their American relatives. Both federal and provincial
governments strictly adhere to the separation of church and state.
Currently Ottawa is content to allow provinces to administer same-sex
civil unions at their own discretion, though has adamantly insisted
that churches  are not bound by provincial or federal law due to
secularism and may do as they see fit. As of yet there is no talk of
limiting abortion.

Alberta and the Prairie Provinces have the highest attendance rates,
with the Catholic Church gaining more attendance in Quebec. The
Atlantic Provinces are also starting to feel the upswing, Catholic
Newfoundland . Ontario and BC remain largely secular.

Immigration is starting to become a hot-button issue in Canada. The
Conservative Government made large cuts to immigration quotas in 2010,
ending what was at one point the most liberal immigration policy in
the Western world. As well, qualifications and standards for new
immigrants have been boosted. Now, immigrants must undertake mandatory
testing to have a functional knowledge of either French or English.
While the MacIntyre government as increased the immigration quota, it
has thus far seen fit to leave the standards higher than it was over
the past fifteen years

Language is no longer the issue that it once was; the Federal
government remains very strictly bilingual, with stringent language
training and requirements for MPs, agency heads, and other prominent
government officials. The CF has ended the practice of organizing
units along linguistic lines, and now all commissioned officers are
required to have a working knowledge of both English and French.

Quebec:
 The separatist movement in Quebec, to no one's great surprise, is
very quickly running out of steam. Heavy dependence on
inter-provincial trade and Federal contracts has made independence
economically unviable for Quebec. Ottawa's willingness to allow Quebec
to preserve and protect aspects of its distinctive French culture and
retain French language laws have also lent little credence to the
cultural arguments of major separatist groups such as the now-defunct
Bloc Quebecois. Politically, the regional Parti Quebecois has
continually failed to unseat the ruling Liberal provincial government,
though has managed to force it into consecutive minority governments
since 2007.

Defence:
The Afghan War taught Canada many harsh lessons about warfare in the
21st Century. Mounting public pressure to withdraw from the war with
(comparatively) low losses did not help the credibility of the
Canadian Forces in the eyes of Canada's NATO allies. Issues of
equipment, training and funding also became apparent problems. One USMC
general once famously referred to the CF as the
'Red Army of NATO: a proud group with a proud history and a very bleak
future.'

A special committee of the Canadian Senate drafted a document, named
the Byron Report after the lead Senator of the committee, that
advocated several changed for the Canadian Forces. These changes
included new arms acquisitions, a breakdown of the ineffective unified
command structure back into the Canadian Army, Royal Canadian Air
Forces and Royal Canadian Navy, the creation of two operational
brigades for the Regular Forces, acquisition of strategic lift
aircraft and an increase in the defence budget to a set peacetime
level of 2% of the GDP, in keeping with the average per capita
military spending of the other NATO countries.

Unfortunately the end of the Afghan War and onset of the global
recession made military reform a low priority for both the Harper and
MacIntyre governments. While the reorganization of the CF into
separate service branches has finally been completed, the rest of the
Byron Report's recommendations have not been addressed, despite
continued pressure from the Pentagon who have made no secret that they
feel Canada must 'mature' as a military power and rely less upon the
United States for protection.

Currently the defence budget is 1.3% of the GDP, which equates to 16.5
billion US Dollars.