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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Country long-name: Federative Republic of Brazil<BR>Head
of State: President Jaoa Carlos dos Anjos Taveres<BR>Head of Government:
President Jaoa Carlos dos Anjos Taveres<BR>Population: 208,270,804<BR>GDP (PPP):
2.2 trillion<BR>GDP (PPP) per capita: 10,200<BR>Unemployment: 9%<BR>Economic
Growth: 5%<BR><BR>Political Landscape</FONT></P>
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face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"><st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>
is breathing a sigh of relief after the peaceful resignation of the former
President and Vice President at the end of a struggle that looked like it would
spark into civil war. The problems began in June 2012 when it was discovered
government officials in the <st1:place>Bahia</st1:place> state were embezzling
millions of dollars earmarked for education and health care projects. While not
unusual for
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region> except
for the amount of money being pocketed, it quickly became apparent that
knowledge of the scheme went higher than local officials and eventually came to
rest at the doors of the President and Vice President. Investigators knowing
that then President da Silva was popular with the army and fearing reprisal
sought the aid of then Senator Jaoa Taveres who was a vocal and popular opponent
of corruption. Attempting to prevent loss of face, Taveres went to the President
with the accusations and attempted to make a deal. He was rebuffed, and several
days later was himself arrested on charges of corruption. The result was a
political stand off between the supporters of Taveres and those against
corruption and da Silva who potentially had the backing of the military. It
seemed like it would come to violence until a petition was delivered by Taveres’
supporters with the signatures of the leaders of the major parties calling for
the President to step down. After two tense days, he summoned the party leaders
to a private meeting before stepping down on October 1<SUP>st</SUP> along with
the Vice President. </FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 324.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-tab-count: 1"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">
</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Elections followed 90 days later and a released Taveres
won handily on a platform of reform and hope. With the political situation
stabilized Taveres has the remainder of President da Silva’s term to make good
on his promises to clean up the government and help
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region> step up
from a regional power to one with truly global reach. <o:p></o:p></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"></SPAN><BR>Economics<BR
style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR
style="mso-special-character: line-break"></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"><st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>
was able to capitalize on its supply of oil to weather the worst of the global
recession. With the addition of new fields fully explored in 2010
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region> became
<st1:place>South America</st1:place>’s leading oil producer and lacking the
protectionist ‘gringos out’ policies of its neighbors quickly became the
preferred source of South American oil for western nations. Additionally
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
comparatively free regulations on foreign investment allowed numerous businesses
forced out of neighboring countries set up their South American operations in
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region> expanding
its manufacturing sector considerably. These two factors contributed
considerably to
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region> being
able to prevent its economy retracting during the recession and be among the
first countries to bounce back at its end which in turn allowed its agricultural
and financial sectors weather the storm as well.</FONT></P>
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face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Despite the general rosy financial picture,
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
ambitions towards becoming a major player in the financial services market have
taken a serious hit due to corruption in that industry. The most famous case of
this corruption is the failure of Brazilian securities authorities to catch
Felipe Serrador who operated a Ponzi scheme in the fashion of Bernie Madoff for
five years before he was exposed by local reporters and finally arrested by
Brazilian authorities. This and the general opinion that most of the regulatory
bodies are corrupt or simply inept has led many investors to be skeptical of
investing in Brazil and halting expansion of any plans to build existing
financial service providers. This issue is of particular import to the business
community who has made it clear to President Taveres that he should make this a
priority. </FONT></P>
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face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><BR><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Social Issues<BR
style="mso-special-character: line-break"><BR
style="mso-special-character: line-break"></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"><st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
social ills are many, but none are more prevalent than poverty and crime.
Despite the country’s prosperity there is a wide gap between the richest and
poorest Brazilians. In 2012 the richest 10% received 50% of the nation’s income
and the poorest 10% received only 1%. Further crime and crime particularly
violent crime, is rampant with 48,245 murders in 2012 and the majority of crimes
committed being unsolved. Tied to both these issues are the further issues of
drugs and corruption. Many of
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s poorest
citizens are addicted to drugs, and it is a problem that is spreading into youth
of the middle class. Controlling the supply and distribution of the drugs are a
number of powerful and well armed cartels who produce, import and export drugs
from the country and control a number of the ghettos in some of
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s biggest
cities. These cartels along with other organized crime groups contribute to the
culture of corruption that is prevalent throughout the Brazilian government,
buying local officials as well as police officers in order to protect their
illegal activities. However corruption doesn’t stop with criminals, legal
entities also engage in bribery and it is often the only way to secure some
service in the poorer parts of the country. Embezzlement is another big issue
facing the government as many civil servants line their pockets with money
marked for other things, which in turn degrade the services going to the public,
often to the point that in the poorer areas they are virtually non-existent
forcing them to turn to alternative authorities such as gangs for what they
need. </FONT></P>
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face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">In
addition to the numerous problems caused by crime, drugs and corruption the
environment has become an increasingly important issue for Brazilians especially
those in urban areas where smog has become a serious problem. While many
international organizations such as Greenpeace, put pressure on the Brazilian
government to protect the Amazon rainforest and stop the slash and burn tactics
employed by the local cattle producers to expand grazing land. </FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Defense</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"><st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
armed forces are continuing their drive to upgrade in 2013 however with the
focus turned on the Army instead of the Air Force and Navy as has traditionally
been the case. For example some army units have antiquated equipment sometimes
upwards of 40 years old while the Air Force has just received over 100 newly
built JAS 39s and the Navy has just launched its first nuclear powered attack
sub. During his election campaign President Taveres has promised to make
modernization of the army a priority along with a commitment to build most of
the new equipment domestically simultaneously rebuilding
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s arms
industry.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">The
armed forces currently have a budget of 3% of the GDP, slightly higher than NATO
standard and there is still mandatory conscription, however exemptions are
fairly easy to come by. Currently the armed forces consider domestic criminal
organizations, border incursion by non-government forces from
<st1:City><st1:place>Columbia</st1:place></st1:City> and the possibility of a
attempt to ferment socialist revolution from
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-region> as the
largest threats to
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
security. The first of these threats, criminal groups, are only reluctantly
considered ‘the army’s business’ however after the August Crisis (see timeline)
which ended in the army ousting a major criminal organization from the Rocinha
ghetto in Rio de Janeiro it is clear that these gangs are becoming too well
armed for the police alone to handle and regular urban warfare training has
become a standard practice for all units of the army. As to the other threats,
conflict from Columbia spilling over to Brazil, and socialist uprising spurred
by Venezuela have been dealt with in the same way, both countries borders have
been reinforced and a number of intelligence assets human and electronic have
been deployed in order to detect and thwart either of these problems before they
become a major security issue. However there are some of the old guard who feel
Chavez is too much of a threat to remain in power on
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s border
and are pushing for more direct action against the dictator. </FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Finally Brazil has had the capacity to produce 6 nuclear
bombs per year since the late 70's, however the current administration as with
the ones before it remains committed to refraining from developing any such
weapons and following the launch of its nuclear powered sub allowed the
IAEA to inspect both the sub and their power plants to prove to their neighbors
only the sub's power systems are nuclear.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Foreign Relations</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman"><st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
major diplomatic objectives are three fold: financial, cultural, and political
integration with the Latin American community, acquire new trade agreements with
the developed and developing world, gain entry to both the UN Security Council
as a permanent member and becoming part of the G8. All three of these objectives
have been given the support of President Taveres, and he has promised many times
throughout his campaign that they will be a priority for his
administration.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT face="Times New Roman">In
addition <st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>
has indicated it will continue to vigorously support multinational organizations
like the UN, Mercosur, and the Organization of American States as opposed to
seeking unilateral solutions to international conflicts.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">Timeline</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><o:p><FONT
face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></o:p></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2010 February – Felipe Serrador, a major investment guru
with connections to
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s oldest
families is accused and later confesses to major securities fraud reducing
confidence in
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s stock
market. New laws are passed as a result but many pundits opine they are mostly
token gestures as enforcement remains the main problem. Felipe Serrador flees
the country while on bail and takes up residence in
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Venezuela</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2010 – Former Vice President da Silva wins the
Presidential Elections against several rivals including newcomer Jaoa Taveres,
while Taveres is unable to win the presidency, his Moral Democrats are able to
form a coalition government with the Worker’s Party and the Brazilian Republican
Party.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2010 October – Petrobras confirms the Jupiter off shore
oil field at approximately 5 billion BOE confirming
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
reserves of oil the largest in <st1:place>South America</st1:place>. The
government agrees to a partnership with private firms to exploit the new
field.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2011 August <SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>– <SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>“The August Crisis”. Three prominent
American businessmen are kidnapped in <st1:place>Rio</st1:place> on August
8<SUP>th</SUP> the Amigos dos Amigos criminal group is implicated. On August
12<SUP>th</SUP> one of the prisoners is released when part of the requested
ransom is paid. Federal Police unable to locate the remaining prisoners arrest
the leader of the Amigos and put out the word he will be released if the
prisoners are. August 13<SUP>th</SUP> the body of one of the businessmen is
thrown into the street outside the Rocinha ghetto controlled by the gang. August
15<SUP>th</SUP> <st1:place>Rio</st1:place>’s military police special police
operations battalion storms the Rocinha ghetto and after an hour long gun battle
rescue the final hostage. The leader of the Amigos is ‘shot while trying to
escape’ the same day. August 17<SUP>th</SUP>-20<SUP>th</SUP> several members of
both the Civil, State and Military police are shot dead in retaliatory attacks.
At the request of the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro and the governor of Rio de Janeiro
state President da Silva orders the army to intervene and oust the Amigos dos
Amigos gangs from the Rocinha ghetto. August 26<SUP>th</SUP>, “Red Thursday”
Brazilian troops enter the Rocinha ghetto and engage the Amigos dos Amigos gang
in day long fighting intent on destroying the gang’s major strongholds. The
initial day of fighting costs the lives of 13 soldiers and 428 civilians and
forces from the Brazilian army occupy the ghetto until September 3<SUP>rd</SUP>
during which time five more soldiers are killed as are 38 civilians whom the
government claims were gang members. The invasion of their territory and the
loss of their leader ends the Amigos dos Amigos gang, and the operation is
declared a victory by the da Silva government. Jaoa Taveres is quietly
disciplined by his coalition for speaking in opposition of the operation
declaring it ‘a victory for no one but Satan’.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 – The 1350 MW Angra 3 nuclear reactor goes online in
April, The San Antonio dam opens in June adding a further 3150 MWs to Brazil’s
struggling power grid. The first off-shore rig begins drilling the Jupiter
field.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 May – State prosecutors in
<st1:place>Bahia</st1:place> charge several members of the state government of
embezzling funds that were meant for health and education projects. Protests
follow in the poorest regions of the state and the accused are shot at on the
way to the state court house causing the police to have to break up the protests
with force.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 June – Documents discovered in the embezzlement case
indicate that people higher up in the government knew about what was going on.
</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 July – New charges are laid against staffers in the
governor of <st1:place>Bahia</st1:place>’s office who it appears knew about the
embezzlement and were receiving kickbacks. <SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 August – Brazilian news and documentary channel GNT
airs a documentary on the August crisis that points out that while the Amigos
dos Amigos gang was destroyed the struggle to fill the power vacuum actually
increased the violence in the area and today a new gang simply occupies the old
Amigos stronghold.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 August – Jaos Taveres openly supports the
<st1:place>Bahia</st1:place> investigation which forces the President to do the
same or appear to be supporting the embezzlers. Shortly afterwards the Governor
of Bahia resigns for personal reasons and is later to on one’s surprise
implicated in the embezzlement scandal. <SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 September – Amidst protests against government
corruption,
<st1:country-region><st1:place>Brazil</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s
Independence Day marks the official launch of its prototype nuclear powered
attack sub. On the 10<SUP>th</SUP> suspicion falls on the office of the
President in the <st1:place>Bahia</st1:place> scandal, investigators are
uncertain how to proceed knowing that da Silva, a former defense minister, is
popular with the army. Senator Taveres is approached and he brings the evidence
to the President. </FONT><FONT face="Times New Roman">September 20<SUP>th</SUP>
Senator Taveres is accused of corruption and arrested by the Federal police.
Protests erupt in the streets when word is released by Taveres’ supporters that
the President is implicated in the <st1:place>Bahia</st1:place> scandal.
September 21<SUP>st</SUP> President da Silva shuts down the investigation into
the corruption scandal through a Provisional Measure and protests intensify.
September 25<SUP>th</SUP> Acting President of the Moral Democrats Jaime Taro
Nacamura meets with representatives from the major political parties and
presents the President with a petition calling for the reinstatement of the
corruption investigation and release of Senator Taveres. September
27<SUP>th</SUP> after two nervous days of waiting, the President meets with the
major political parties including a freed Jaoa Taveres.</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 October - October 1<SUP>st</SUP> the President
admits his guilt and the guilt of the Vice President and both officially resign
from office. Under the constitution, the Speaker of the House of Deputies
becomes acting President and an election is called for December 29<SUP>th</SUP>.
</FONT></P>
<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; tab-stops: 75.0pt"><FONT
face="Times New Roman">2012 December – President Taveres is elected in the
special election as President of Brazil and is required to serve until <st1:date
Year="2014" Day="31" Month="12">December 31<SUP>st</SUP> 2014</st1:date>.
</FONT></P></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>