[War] China 2013

[Chazenesq2b at aol.com]

----
Country long-name (In English):  The People's Republic of  China
Head of State:  President Xia Hong
Head of Government:   President Xia Hong
Population:  1,439,613,525 (2012 Est.)
GDP (PPP):  $9.62 Trillion (U.S)
GDP (PPP) per capita: $7,407.88 (U.S.)
Unemployment:  9% (Actual)
Economic Growth: 2% (2012 Est.)

Political Landscape
 
The economic downturn in the west, combined with continued "devout  
religious intolerance" as one Chinese minister put it, has lead to a deep  yearning 
for rampant change in China's extraordinarily intricate and complicated  
political system.  This broad-based desire has lead to a polarization of  
Chinese politics, yearning for the safety and security promised by the 'old  
guard' Communist methodology versus the promises of liberty, advancement,  
protected rights and freedoms fronted by the 'Modernist' camp.  In the  
traditional Chinese way, differences have been 'ironed out' in the proverbial  
shadows.  Popular tools have included investigations for corruption,  allegations 
of fraud and ethics violations, claims of subversive activities,  and, 
rumor has it, assassinations.  In fact 'suicides' among the political  elite of 
the country have tripled since 2009, leading many to question the  loyalty 
of China's National Police.  Others point out that suicides in  general have 
increased greatly in China, a country particularly hard hit by the  global 
recession.  
 
One such suicide of particularly high-profile was that of Wen Hong, a  
powerful commercial banker, husband of a People's National  Congresswoman, and 
one of the pioneers of China's deprivatization  program.  The 44 year old 
banker left behind a son Chan, a daugther Meili,  and a wife, Xia.
 
It was Xia Hong that took the reigns of the Hong family following her  
husband's death.  Of the family hierarchy, it was Xia who typically handled  the 
socio-political aspects of the prominent family, while Wen had concentrated 
 on the economic aspects.  Rumors, though none publicized by any reputable  
organization, began floating abound about the Hong patriarch's death.   
Rumors ran the gambit from scandalously incredulous (killed by an angry  
prostitute during sex, killed as part of one international conspiracy or  
another), to the inappropriately fanciful... including rumors that Xia herself  
played a role in 'assisting' his suicide.  Little is known of the actual  
circumstances, but an official investigation ruled out foul play.
 
Rather than retreat into a life of comfortable solitude, the least  
dangerous option likely available to her, Xia used the wave of publicity  following 
her husband's death in 2011 to advocate massive changes to China's  
political and economic systems.  Her calls for change rallied the public,  while 
specific agenda items, modernizing China's major cities, continuing and  
expanding China's military modernization, making necessary environmental and  
healthcare reforms, and expanding educational opportunities, brought in  
moderates from both camps under a single tent.  By January of 2012, Xia had  
managed to position key allies and like thinkers in the right positions, and was  
nominated by the party's Politburo and hierarchy to run for President, with 
the  support of China's military.
 
What followed was a historic event.  China's very slow but steady  march 
towards democracy lead, by political arm wrestling, in China's first free  and 
fair election for Presidency.  Xia defeated the Hard-liner candidate in  
the party's internal election by a comfortable margin to win the official  
nomination, and won the national election with a powerful 75% of the vote.   
The transfer of power proceeded on January 10, 2013 smoothly, with very minor  
protests, and major celebrations, throughout China.
 
The 'feel good' atmosphere is a gilded covering over serious political  
problems that China still faces.  The Communist Party remains split between  
the majority modernists, and the vocal minority of hard-line Communists.   
Serious questions regarding human rights remain, and the question of whether  
China will move forward or regress defensively in light of its problems still 
 lingers.  Additionally, internal questions of engagement versus isolation  
with respect to international affairs, China's new role as the 
counterweight  against American hegemony, and of the role of religion and individuality 
versus  the state, and serious sectarian concerns, all pose potential traps 
for the new  Chinese leadership.  Political analysts, although energized by 
the historic  vote, are none the less aware that the progress is tenuous at 
best thus far, and  could easily be broken.  There is a definite need to 
balance the  traditional Sino respect for history and tradition, with the 
modern day needs of  the masses.  The eyes of the world are once again focused on 
Beijing.

Economics
 
China's export based economy was hid hard by the global recession, dropping 
 from a usual average of 10% a year growth to just 2% in 2012.  Economic  
analysts are optimistic in China's resurgence however, particularly as export 
 orders are beginning to pick up, and global concerns continue to rely on 
China's  terrific industrial capacity.  New environmental standards set in 
place by  the PNC had a dual effect of making production a little more costly 
when it came  to heavy industries, and encouraging the continued development 
and nurturing of  China's own 'Green Industries'.  Successful bail out 
plans have kept  China's largest domestic industries in tact, while at the same 
time  demonstrating the growing resilience of China's own economy to operate 
 independently.  
 
The growing urban population has been widely effectively managed, with  
appropriate redistributions of CNP assets, and the integration of landmark  
legislation requiring the upgrading and rebuilding of residential and 
commercial  buildings to be more resistant to environmental disasters, more 
environmentally  and economically sound, and more livable.  China's standard of 
living  increases slowed, but did not stop during the recession, and the modern 
Chinese  family enjoys far greater buying power than their parents did.  
China's  largest cities are virtually indistinguishable from western 
counterparts, and  world traveler magazine emphasized this by comparing Beijing with 
the likes of  New York, London, Paris, or Tokyo.
 
There are problems on the horizon however, that could threaten China's  
economic growth.  They include needed reforms to the social safety net to  
counteract a population adept at saving, securing substantial job growth in the  
face of continued urban migration, properly handling and controlling 
corruption  and other economic crimes, and contending with the environmental and 
social  impacts of an industry dominant economy with heavy secondary emphasis 
on  services.  A reliance on imported petroleum and resources, and 
agricultural  sustainment and advancement, are also obstacles which must be  
overcome.

Social Issues
 
Social Issues in China remain dominated by the philosophy of the  
Individual-State relationship.  Chinese, like other people, pride  themselves on 
patriotism, and in China the needs to the State carry particular  importance.  
This said, modern Chinese generations, often lead by those  schooled in the 
west or at China's more independent institutions have pushed for  increasing 
reforms to recognize individual and humanitarian rights, while also  
honoring duty to the State.  This debate has been most obvious in the  continuing 
saga of the influence of religion in China.  Tight controls have  been slow 
to give way, leading to frustration and anxiety among many of the  clergy and 
their followers.  Other issues include the protection of the  freedom of 
speech (some have indicated China now has a 'privilege' of free  speech, 
though not a full right yet), the end of compulsory selective military  service, 
the adoption of a more humane legal system, and the continued  deregulation 
of the electoral process to allow for more parties to compete with  the 
Communists.  China's relationship with Taiwan remains a constant  concern, as 
does its actions in Tibet and Hong Kong.  A swelling of support  for greater 
international involvement and a move away from isolation is  pervasive 
amongst the younger groups, while China's influential elders continue  to support 
a return to the 'old ways' as much as is manageable.  
 
Limitations on transportation, the needs of an evolving justice system,  
environmental problems, disease control concerns, the 'one child' policy, and  
other social issues are also critically important to the next 
administration to  confront.  

Defense
 
China's expenditures on it's military have grown to 5% of GDP as of fiscal  
2012, up from 4.3% in 2008.  Though normally not considered a drastic  
increase, China has also significantly reduced the size of its standing forces  
as it continues to move towards a more western model from it's eastern  
roots.  Though Commisars still do exist, the vast majority of China's  military 
officers and enlisted are ardent professionals, near par or on par with  
their potential rivals, and matching regional parity with the United  States.  
By and large the 1.5 million men and women of the People's  Liberation Armed 
Forces are well paid, extremely well trained, and surprisingly  well versed 
in modern warfare.  Exactly how competent the Chinese military  has become 
is the subject of much debate and speculation, with virtually  anything 
related to defense being a closely held secret of the State.   China is 
suspected of harboring the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal of the world,  and its 
strategic forces in particular are suspected to have received  significant 
attention when it comes to upgrades.  Despite the advancements,  analysts believe 
China's 'amphibious' capabilities have only marginally  improved, and thus 
the world's intelligence services continue to believe any  operation against 
Taiwan would require months of pre-positioning.  
 
New laws passed by the PNC and expected to be signed by the Hong  
Administration would officially segregate the armed forces into component  branches.  
This would include the Air Force (PLAF), the Navy (PLN), the  Marine Corps 
(PLNMC), and the Army (PLA).  Operational command of China's  airborne 
forces are being transferred from the PLAF to the PLA, and the Second  Artillery 
Corps is being re-designated as the crown jewel of China's new  Strategic 
Warfare Command (SWC), the makeup of which is also a closely guarded  national 
secret.

Foreign Relations
 
China's preeminence in the international domain has steadily grown, despite 
 its economic difficulties.  With the expansion of its military power, the  
Chinese government has gained leverage with its neighbors, and increased  
participation in the counter-piracy effort of 2009 and beyond have lead to  
greater projection of power and strategic alliances with nations like 
Indonesia,  Australia, and Kenya.  China maintains embassies in virtually all 
nations  in the world, as well as a number of consulates or special diplomatic  
offices.  China remains a permanent member of the UNSC, and its sway in UN  
missions has grown along with its military capacity.
 
Military influence aside, China has become a flag contributor to various  
international charities and relief efforts.  This includes the IRC/RC, the  
anti-AIDS campaign in Africa, and International Development efforts in Africa 
 and South America.  

Timeline
 
January 3, 2011:  Wen Hong commits suicide.
February- April, 2011:  A rash of protests erupt in Beijing and  Shenyeng.  
Largely peaceful, the PNC was able to handle the situation with  little 
side fair.  However the unruly actions of a single police officer  are used to 
again highlight the problems of police brutality in China, adding to  the 
public outcry.
August, 2011:  22 moderate Chinese politicians meet at the Hong  residence 
near Chengde, Hebei province.  They agree in general terms on  China's need 
to modernize, and this is dated to be the official start of the  'modernist' 
movement in China.
December, 2011:  The Politburo elects Xia Hong as the next candidate  of 
the Communist Party for the Presidency in China.
April 2012:  Political protests erupt into a fight when a rally  held at 
Shanghai University by members of 'The Green Party' is dispersed by the  CNP 
as an un-permitted public nuisance.  There are no fatalities, but 3  officers 
and 45 protestors report injuries ranging from cuts and bruises to mace  
and tinitis.  
October, 2012:  Xia Hong is elected as President of the PRC, term  
beginning January 10, 2013.
---
 
1409800000- 2009
1419668600- 2010
1429606281- 2011
1439613525- 2012
 
$8.56 Trillion- 2009  (9.8%)
$9.07 Trillion- 2010  (6%)
$9.43 Trillion- 2011 (4%)
$9.62 Trillion- 2012 (2%)
 
$6,588- 2009
$6983.28- 2010
$7262.62- 2011
$7407.88- 2012
**************An Excellent Credit Score is 750. See Yours in Just 2 Easy 
Steps! 
(http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1221323006x1201367222/aol?redir=http://www.freecreditreport.com/pm/default.aspx?sc=668072&hmpgID=62&bcd=Jun
eExcfooterNO62)
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://esteroic.com/pipermail/war_esteroic.com/attachments/20090628/e784480e/attachment-0001.html