From dylandv at gmail.com Sun Jun 28 13:57:28 2009 From: dylandv at gmail.com (Dylan de Valk) Date: Sun, 28 Jun 2009 10:57:28 -0700 Subject: [War] Ethiopia 2013 Message-ID: <763946e70906281057k67a28e01y2fb47b0223ec1c98@mail.gmail.com> *Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia * Head of State: President Girma Wolde-Giorgis Head of Government: Dirma Zembagis Population: 88 million GDP [PPP] = $71.3 billion per capita = $800 Unemployment Rate: 11% Economic Growth: 8% -------------------------------------------------------- *Political Landscape:* In late 2012, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi retired on a high note after a long and successful career in Ethiopian politics. Since the Prime Minister has the real power in Ethiopia, this position opening up is significant, as it allowed Dirma Zembagis to fill in the position and take over. As interim leader, Dirma's position is not yet solidified, but he is exercising increased control over the House of People's Representatives [lower chamber] and the House of Federation [upper chamber]. With President Girma Wolde-Giorgis' term coming to an end in the next year, Dirma has another chance to fill the position with a political ally, as long as the HoPR votes in favour of his choice that is. As for Dirma himself, he is a well known public figure in Ethiopia and has been for the last few years since he started campaigning with his party, the Ethiopian National Front. Dirma created the party himself, and it has gained momentum rapidly since its inception in late 2009. They did well, carrying 102 seats in the HoPR in the 2010 elections, and Dirma has organized a coalition government to gain power with Zenawi gone. The Ethiopian National Front [from now on ENF] has a broad agenda and a wide appeal among many people in country for its generally progressive, yet patriotic ideas: 1. Equality amongst the many diverse ethnic groups of Ethiopia. 2. Protection for critical sectors of the economy 3. Supports bringing back the Emperor and the Imperial family to act in a constitutional manner, similar to the system in many European nations and Japan. 4. Reform and investment in agriculture, critical to so many Ethiopians. 5. Investment and construction of infrastructure to aid economic development. 6. An independent and neutral course in international diplomacy. Dirma is a well known nationalist and disagrees with common markets and free trade, along with other attempts to integrate Africa. 7. Promotes traditional values 8. Promotes extending Ethiopia's influence amongst its neighbours in the region. 9. Wants Eritrea integrated back into Ethiopia, by what means doesn't matter. *Economics:* By 2013, after a short slowing in growth, Ethiopia's economy is back on track and is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Although a drought struck in 2008, and hurt many people, the monsoon rains have returned with regularity and have once again brought prosperity to many farmers. Nonetheless, Ethiopia remains an extremely poor nation, with many varying economic problems. A lack of electricity, fossil fuels, infrastructure, and foreign exchange reserves, little government spending on social programs like education and health care, no coastal access, population overcrowding, and a heavy dependence on agriculture, are some of the problems facing the country. The agricultural sector remains dependent on coffee exports to keep many farmers afloat, and poor water usage, lack of irrigation, outdated farming techniques, and overuse of pesticides lead to desertification. Ethiopia is a very mountainous country, and much of country is within the East Africa Rift Valley, a major earthquake zone. Although there has not been a major earthquake in recent history, there is bound to be one again, and when one strikes, many impoverished people will suffer. Because the population is growing so rapidly, the economy must generate hundreds of thousands of new jobs every year just to keep the per capita income level. Until population growth declines, per capita income will grow slowly. All that being said, the future is bright. Industry and services continue to grow apace, and migration to the cities runs at about 4% annually. Addis Ababa is undoubtedly the economic hub of the country, with a rapidly growing population of about 3.5 million people. The soils of the nation remain very fertile due to the very thing that also threatens the people, volcanism and tectonic forces. With coaxing and time, Ethiopia could become a breadbasket region for export and be able feed itself. *Social Issues:* Ethiopia has a fast-growing population. Population growth averages out at approximately 2.4% annually. This leads to enormous strain on the existing infrastructure in place and leads to many issues that come with an exploding population. Ethiopia's population has grown from 33.5 million in 1983 to 75.1 million in 2006! And since 2006, a further 13 million people have been added to that sum. Needless to say, disease and health care are major issues. While the economy grows rapidly, hand in hand with population growth, the per capita income of the average Ethiopian has been stationary at about $800 per capita. More people than ever before are mired in poverty, although percentage-wise this is slowly improving. At a staggering 81% living below the poverty line, some 70 million people are considered poor in the country. AIDS runs rampant with an ever increasing death toll and infection count, and the death rate is at 11/1000. A lack of health care funding and medicine severely limit what aid agencies and the government can do for the people. Meanwhile, the percentage of the population with an education remains low, despite attempts over the years. All is not dark on the social front though. Despite the many challenges Ethiopia faces, the AIDS infection rate is lower than to the south. As government revenues increase, more is spent on education and health care. The growth rate of population is also slowly declining, as is the death rate. The life expectancy is rising, albeit slowly, and currently stands at a median rate of 56 years. The situation, while dire. is improving and will continue to do so. *Defense:* The Ethiopian military is one of the largest in Africa, with more than 200,000 active service personnel. The Ethiopian National Defense Force [ENDF] is currently transitioning from a rebel force to a professional contract military. The military is overseen by the Ministry of Defence, which also regulates the domestic arms industry. The domestic arms industry is a polyglot of businesses that create new parts and somehow generally keep the ancient weaponry of the military working. The debt of the federal government, all $3.5 billion of it, was incurred by arms purchases from the USSR in the late 1970's and early '80's by the Derg regime. This debt remains unserviced. Ethiopian forces have participated in many regional conflicts, including Somalia, Darfur, and Eritrea. Ethiopia will remain a major player in the region, and commands respect among its neighbours because of its comparatively large military. * Foreign Relations:* Ethiopia maintains embassies in all major nations of the world. Relations with the US and co. have improved markedly since the collapse of the Derg and institution of democracy in the 1990's. Relations with China are also warm, as Chinese investment in Ethiopia continues, as in much of east Africa. *Timeline:* November 2009: ENF founded by Dirma. April 2010: Monsoon rains return in June after scattered showers begin in February. Farmers rejoice. September 2010: Farmers reap a record crop. Food aid is temporarily reduced and the government stores away as much as it can. January 2011: Ethiopia rejects the new boundary recommended by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission. Tensions increase between the two states. Ethiopian forces still remain as occupiers of much of Eritrea. October 2011: A friendly fire incident by Eritrean forces on their own led to a confused gun fight on the border and 23 soldiers on both sides died. Although the situation was defused, diplomatic relations are near an all-time low. June 2012: A bomber detonates himself in the city of Dire Dawa in the eartern portion of the country, killing 2 people and wounding 19. Ethiopian security forces link him to an Eritrean rebel cell and the Foreign Affairs Ministry denounces Eritrea as a haven of terrorism. August 2012: A small natural gas field is discovered in the eastern desert region of the country. November 2012: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi retires as announced a year earlier. Dirma Zembagis becomes interim Prime Minister until the next elections. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://esteroic.com/pipermail/war_esteroic.com/attachments/20090628/b10b9616/attachment.html From Chazenesq2b at aol.com Sun Jun 28 18:28:07 2009 From: Chazenesq2b at aol.com (Chazenesq2b at aol.com) Date: Sun, 28 Jun 2009 18:28:07 EDT Subject: [War] China 2013 Message-ID: ---- Country long-name (In English): The People's Republic of China Head of State: President Xia Hong Head of Government: President Xia Hong Population: 1,439,613,525 (2012 Est.) GDP (PPP): $9.62 Trillion (U.S) GDP (PPP) per capita: $7,407.88 (U.S.) Unemployment: 9% (Actual) Economic Growth: 2% (2012 Est.) Political Landscape The economic downturn in the west, combined with continued "devout religious intolerance" as one Chinese minister put it, has lead to a deep yearning for rampant change in China's extraordinarily intricate and complicated political system. This broad-based desire has lead to a polarization of Chinese politics, yearning for the safety and security promised by the 'old guard' Communist methodology versus the promises of liberty, advancement, protected rights and freedoms fronted by the 'Modernist' camp. In the traditional Chinese way, differences have been 'ironed out' in the proverbial shadows. Popular tools have included investigations for corruption, allegations of fraud and ethics violations, claims of subversive activities, and, rumor has it, assassinations. In fact 'suicides' among the political elite of the country have tripled since 2009, leading many to question the loyalty of China's National Police. Others point out that suicides in general have increased greatly in China, a country particularly hard hit by the global recession. One such suicide of particularly high-profile was that of Wen Hong, a powerful commercial banker, husband of a People's National Congresswoman, and one of the pioneers of China's deprivatization program. The 44 year old banker left behind a son Chan, a daugther Meili, and a wife, Xia. It was Xia Hong that took the reigns of the Hong family following her husband's death. Of the family hierarchy, it was Xia who typically handled the socio-political aspects of the prominent family, while Wen had concentrated on the economic aspects. Rumors, though none publicized by any reputable organization, began floating abound about the Hong patriarch's death. Rumors ran the gambit from scandalously incredulous (killed by an angry prostitute during sex, killed as part of one international conspiracy or another), to the inappropriately fanciful... including rumors that Xia herself played a role in 'assisting' his suicide. Little is known of the actual circumstances, but an official investigation ruled out foul play. Rather than retreat into a life of comfortable solitude, the least dangerous option likely available to her, Xia used the wave of publicity following her husband's death in 2011 to advocate massive changes to China's political and economic systems. Her calls for change rallied the public, while specific agenda items, modernizing China's major cities, continuing and expanding China's military modernization, making necessary environmental and healthcare reforms, and expanding educational opportunities, brought in moderates from both camps under a single tent. By January of 2012, Xia had managed to position key allies and like thinkers in the right positions, and was nominated by the party's Politburo and hierarchy to run for President, with the support of China's military. What followed was a historic event. China's very slow but steady march towards democracy lead, by political arm wrestling, in China's first free and fair election for Presidency. Xia defeated the Hard-liner candidate in the party's internal election by a comfortable margin to win the official nomination, and won the national election with a powerful 75% of the vote. The transfer of power proceeded on January 10, 2013 smoothly, with very minor protests, and major celebrations, throughout China. The 'feel good' atmosphere is a gilded covering over serious political problems that China still faces. The Communist Party remains split between the majority modernists, and the vocal minority of hard-line Communists. Serious questions regarding human rights remain, and the question of whether China will move forward or regress defensively in light of its problems still lingers. Additionally, internal questions of engagement versus isolation with respect to international affairs, China's new role as the counterweight against American hegemony, and of the role of religion and individuality versus the state, and serious sectarian concerns, all pose potential traps for the new Chinese leadership. Political analysts, although energized by the historic vote, are none the less aware that the progress is tenuous at best thus far, and could easily be broken. There is a definite need to balance the traditional Sino respect for history and tradition, with the modern day needs of the masses. The eyes of the world are once again focused on Beijing. Economics China's export based economy was hid hard by the global recession, dropping from a usual average of 10% a year growth to just 2% in 2012. Economic analysts are optimistic in China's resurgence however, particularly as export orders are beginning to pick up, and global concerns continue to rely on China's terrific industrial capacity. New environmental standards set in place by the PNC had a dual effect of making production a little more costly when it came to heavy industries, and encouraging the continued development and nurturing of China's own 'Green Industries'. Successful bail out plans have kept China's largest domestic industries in tact, while at the same time demonstrating the growing resilience of China's own economy to operate independently. The growing urban population has been widely effectively managed, with appropriate redistributions of CNP assets, and the integration of landmark legislation requiring the upgrading and rebuilding of residential and commercial buildings to be more resistant to environmental disasters, more environmentally and economically sound, and more livable. China's standard of living increases slowed, but did not stop during the recession, and the modern Chinese family enjoys far greater buying power than their parents did. China's largest cities are virtually indistinguishable from western counterparts, and world traveler magazine emphasized this by comparing Beijing with the likes of New York, London, Paris, or Tokyo. There are problems on the horizon however, that could threaten China's economic growth. They include needed reforms to the social safety net to counteract a population adept at saving, securing substantial job growth in the face of continued urban migration, properly handling and controlling corruption and other economic crimes, and contending with the environmental and social impacts of an industry dominant economy with heavy secondary emphasis on services. A reliance on imported petroleum and resources, and agricultural sustainment and advancement, are also obstacles which must be overcome. Social Issues Social Issues in China remain dominated by the philosophy of the Individual-State relationship. Chinese, like other people, pride themselves on patriotism, and in China the needs to the State carry particular importance. This said, modern Chinese generations, often lead by those schooled in the west or at China's more independent institutions have pushed for increasing reforms to recognize individual and humanitarian rights, while also honoring duty to the State. This debate has been most obvious in the continuing saga of the influence of religion in China. Tight controls have been slow to give way, leading to frustration and anxiety among many of the clergy and their followers. Other issues include the protection of the freedom of speech (some have indicated China now has a 'privilege' of free speech, though not a full right yet), the end of compulsory selective military service, the adoption of a more humane legal system, and the continued deregulation of the electoral process to allow for more parties to compete with the Communists. China's relationship with Taiwan remains a constant concern, as does its actions in Tibet and Hong Kong. A swelling of support for greater international involvement and a move away from isolation is pervasive amongst the younger groups, while China's influential elders continue to support a return to the 'old ways' as much as is manageable. Limitations on transportation, the needs of an evolving justice system, environmental problems, disease control concerns, the 'one child' policy, and other social issues are also critically important to the next administration to confront. Defense China's expenditures on it's military have grown to 5% of GDP as of fiscal 2012, up from 4.3% in 2008. Though normally not considered a drastic increase, China has also significantly reduced the size of its standing forces as it continues to move towards a more western model from it's eastern roots. Though Commisars still do exist, the vast majority of China's military officers and enlisted are ardent professionals, near par or on par with their potential rivals, and matching regional parity with the United States. By and large the 1.5 million men and women of the People's Liberation Armed Forces are well paid, extremely well trained, and surprisingly well versed in modern warfare. Exactly how competent the Chinese military has become is the subject of much debate and speculation, with virtually anything related to defense being a closely held secret of the State. China is suspected of harboring the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal of the world, and its strategic forces in particular are suspected to have received significant attention when it comes to upgrades. Despite the advancements, analysts believe China's 'amphibious' capabilities have only marginally improved, and thus the world's intelligence services continue to believe any operation against Taiwan would require months of pre-positioning. New laws passed by the PNC and expected to be signed by the Hong Administration would officially segregate the armed forces into component branches. This would include the Air Force (PLAF), the Navy (PLN), the Marine Corps (PLNMC), and the Army (PLA). Operational command of China's airborne forces are being transferred from the PLAF to the PLA, and the Second Artillery Corps is being re-designated as the crown jewel of China's new Strategic Warfare Command (SWC), the makeup of which is also a closely guarded national secret. Foreign Relations China's preeminence in the international domain has steadily grown, despite its economic difficulties. With the expansion of its military power, the Chinese government has gained leverage with its neighbors, and increased participation in the counter-piracy effort of 2009 and beyond have lead to greater projection of power and strategic alliances with nations like Indonesia, Australia, and Kenya. China maintains embassies in virtually all nations in the world, as well as a number of consulates or special diplomatic offices. China remains a permanent member of the UNSC, and its sway in UN missions has grown along with its military capacity. Military influence aside, China has become a flag contributor to various international charities and relief efforts. This includes the IRC/RC, the anti-AIDS campaign in Africa, and International Development efforts in Africa and South America. Timeline January 3, 2011: Wen Hong commits suicide. February- April, 2011: A rash of protests erupt in Beijing and Shenyeng. Largely peaceful, the PNC was able to handle the situation with little side fair. However the unruly actions of a single police officer are used to again highlight the problems of police brutality in China, adding to the public outcry. August, 2011: 22 moderate Chinese politicians meet at the Hong residence near Chengde, Hebei province. They agree in general terms on China's need to modernize, and this is dated to be the official start of the 'modernist' movement in China. December, 2011: The Politburo elects Xia Hong as the next candidate of the Communist Party for the Presidency in China. April 2012: Political protests erupt into a fight when a rally held at Shanghai University by members of 'The Green Party' is dispersed by the CNP as an un-permitted public nuisance. There are no fatalities, but 3 officers and 45 protestors report injuries ranging from cuts and bruises to mace and tinitis. October, 2012: Xia Hong is elected as President of the PRC, term beginning January 10, 2013. --- 1409800000- 2009 1419668600- 2010 1429606281- 2011 1439613525- 2012 $8.56 Trillion- 2009 (9.8%) $9.07 Trillion- 2010 (6%) $9.43 Trillion- 2011 (4%) $9.62 Trillion- 2012 (2%) $6,588- 2009 $6983.28- 2010 $7262.62- 2011 $7407.88- 2012 **************An Excellent Credit Score is 750. See Yours in Just 2 Easy Steps! (http://pr.atwola.com/promoclk/100126575x1221323006x1201367222/aol?redir=http://www.freecreditreport.com/pm/default.aspx?sc=668072&hmpgID=62&bcd=Jun eExcfooterNO62) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://esteroic.com/pipermail/war_esteroic.com/attachments/20090628/e784480e/attachment-0001.html From michael.michaeldowney at gmail.com Sun Jun 28 20:38:20 2009 From: michael.michaeldowney at gmail.com (Michael Downey) Date: Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:08:20 -0230 Subject: [War] Japan 2013 Message-ID: <6b6ab8a70906281738s37ff9a5el9560a77ec8e7c69f@mail.gmail.com> Country long-name (English): Japan Head of State: Emperor: Emperor Akihito Head of Government: Prime Minister Shirow Ahkahita Population: 126,254,650 GDP (PPP): $4.401 trillion dollars (US) GDP (PPP) per capita: $34,848 (US) Unemployment: 4.4% Economic Growth: 2% (as of 2013) Political Landscape The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a harsh setback in the Lower House elections in September of 2009, losing fifty-five seats to the Democratic Party of Japan. Though retaining control of the country, the LDP chose to oust Taro Aso and replace him newcomer Ton Koujino. The Koujino administration was credited with continuing reform of the country?s financial sector and smoothing over the final privatization of Japan Post the officially occurred in 2007, while trying to improve the national economic performance in the face of a global recession. Unfortunately a constituency spending scandal in 2010 tarnished the LDP even further. While Koujino himself continued to enjoy popularity among the population, the Kouchi Kai bloc of the LDP from which he drew most of his support was hurt badly by the resulting internal fallout. The right wing Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyukai bloc, with the backing of hardliners and far-right nationalists, managed to oust Koujino in June of 2011 and replace him with conservative Assemblyman Ichiro Shima. However the ongoing recession continued to dog the LDP in the polls and Prime Minister Shima?s strong nationalist rhetoric did not provide the poll boost the LDP had hoped for. Around the same time the DPJ also elected a new leader. Formerly a powerful insurance mogul, Shirow Ahkahita had turned to politics by becoming mayor of Fukuoka in 2002 before turning to the national stage by unseating an LDP assemblyman in the 2009 Lower House elections. Touting his strong business credentials and playing on his successful mayoral career, Ahkahita was made Party President on the second ballot. By November of 2012, the LDP was in dire straits. Many moderates within the party had become alienated by Shima?s iron-fisted leadership style and refusal to address one of the country?s main economic hurdle, the shrinking population. The defection of over twenty LDP assemblymen to the DPJ made the LDP?s popularity dip by a wide margin, allowing the DPJ and Social Democrats to force a no-confidence vote and drag the country into an election that occurred in January of 2013. In one of Japan?s most costly and acrimonious election campaigns to date, the DPJ managed to finally wrestle control of the Diet from the LDP after years of hard struggle, winning 245 seats. The morning after the election, the Secretary-General of the DPJ and presumptive Chief Cabinet Secretary Takashi Omaguchi was assassinated outside of his home by an ethnic Korean. A powerful member of the DPJ leadership and considered to be the key ally of Prime Minister-elect Ahkahita, his death cast an earl shadow on the incoming administration. Economics Japan was spared the early ravages of the subprime mortgage crisis and the credit crunch that followed. However, a downturn in global markets that followed resulted in decreasing demand for Japanese exports, as well as a decrease in American, Chinese and European investment capital. The Japanese economy shrunk from 2009 to 2011 but rebounded with growth at the close of the 2011 trading year, though at a slow pace. Two lingering problems cloud Japan?s economic future. The first is the country?s tremendous debt, almost 170% of the GDP. Significant belt-tightening and rigid fiscal discipline by the Koujino government has kept the national debt from climbing any higher but it still remains at the same level as it did in 2009. The second problem is the continued gentrification and numerical decline of Japan?s population. Though Japan has the lowest mortality rate and longest life expectancy on Earth, the actual population of the country has dropped by close to a million people over the past four years. This is due to a low birth rate, with fewer families having many (or any) children. As the population drops, the workforce shrinks due to death and age, productivity drops as well. At the same time the pool of taxpayers able to provide (both in terms of service and financing) for the elderly decreases. Still, Japan has doggedly clung to its position as the third largest economy in the world. The country is currently the largest exporter of cars and automotive parts, despite increasing competition from the United States as its auto industry slowly recovers, and is the second largest exporter of computers and electronics. It is also in the top tier of pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding, machine tools, precision instruments, steel and alternative energy technologies. Social Issues The prevailing social issue in Japan is the question of how to deal with the continued shrinking and aging of the country?s population. Many, especially more liberal members of the DPJ, have pushed for relaxation of Japan?s rigid (some would say racist) immigration laws and allow more migrants from the rest of Asia. The LDP has opposed such steps and suggested tax cuts for every child below the age of eighteen for Japanese families and more government spending on childcare, though the DPJ has criticized such measures as too long-term to affect a problem that grows every day. Related to this is increasing discontent among the Zainichi, the half-million Japnese-born Koreans who lack Japanese citizenship despite living their entire lives in the country. Growing nationalism and a lingering desire to keep Japan a homogeneous nation has hampered the desire of the Zainichi to become naturalized citizens. Similar discontent has been simmering among Japan?s ethnic Chinese population. Defense The military policy and public perception of Japan?s military role in the Far East has undergone serious scrutiny over the past four years, both by the Diet, JSDF leadership and the voting populace. North Korea?s successful test of the Taepodong-3 missile in 2010 caused a large political stir. Combined with greater and greater military spending by China and Russia, many within the LDP have called for a review of Article 9. Opposed to a constitutional amendment but equally concerned by the growing military prowess of its dangerous and unpredictable neighbors, the DPJ has blocked a review of Article 9 but compromised by supporting increased defence spending. Therefore, the budget of the JSDF has slowly grown from 0.8% of the GDP in 2009 to 1.2% in 2013. The JGSDF has pushed the Type 89 IFV into widespread service while the JASDF has entered into talks with the USAF to begin acquiring F-35 fighters to replace their aging fleet of F15-J fighters. The JSDF still lags behind in amphibious ability and is considered lacking in large-scale airlift ability. The alliance between Japan and the USA has continued to prosper and remains strong, with the JMSDF and US Navy conducting joint training exercises off the coast of Okinawa in late 2012. Timeline: August 2009- Large scale protests take place in Tokyo and other major Japanese cities the protests centre on the mismanagement of the Japanese pension system and reluctance of the government to provide real solutions to the declining population September 2009- LDP loses fifty-five seats to the DPJ in the Lower House elections. Taro Aso resigns as Prime Minister and is replaced by Ton Koujino as Prime Minister and LDP leader. February 2010- North Korea successfully fires the Taepodong-3 missile over Japan. June 2011- Prime Minister Koujino resigns, Ichiro Shima become Prime Minister. August 2011- Assemblyman Shirow Ahkahita becomes DPJ President. October 2012- Joint exercises between the US Navy and JMSDF off the coast of Okinawa January 2013- DPJ wins the Lower House election, winning a total of 245 seats. Shortly after, DPJ Secretary-General Takashi Omaguchi is assassinated by a Zainichi Korean. From martellian at hotmail.com Sun Jun 28 22:59:50 2009 From: martellian at hotmail.com (Ian Martell) Date: Sun, 28 Jun 2009 19:59:50 -0700 Subject: [War] Brazil 2013 Message-ID: Country long-name: Federative Republic of Brazil Head of State: President Jaoa Carlos dos Anjos Taveres Head of Government: President Jaoa Carlos dos Anjos Taveres Population: 208,270,804 GDP (PPP): 2.2 trillion GDP (PPP) per capita: 10,200 Unemployment: 9% Economic Growth: 5% Political Landscape Brazil is breathing a sigh of relief after the peaceful resignation of the former President and Vice President at the end of a struggle that looked like it would spark into civil war. The problems began in June 2012 when it was discovered government officials in the Bahia state were embezzling millions of dollars earmarked for education and health care projects. While not unusual for Brazil except for the amount of money being pocketed, it quickly became apparent that knowledge of the scheme went higher than local officials and eventually came to rest at the doors of the President and Vice President. Investigators knowing that then President da Silva was popular with the army and fearing reprisal sought the aid of then Senator Jaoa Taveres who was a vocal and popular opponent of corruption. Attempting to prevent loss of face, Taveres went to the President with the accusations and attempted to make a deal. He was rebuffed, and several days later was himself arrested on charges of corruption. The result was a political stand off between the supporters of Taveres and those against corruption and da Silva who potentially had the backing of the military. It seemed like it would come to violence until a petition was delivered by Taveres' supporters with the signatures of the leaders of the major parties calling for the President to step down. After two tense days, he summoned the party leaders to a private meeting before stepping down on October 1st along with the Vice President. Elections followed 90 days later and a released Taveres won handily on a platform of reform and hope. With the political situation stabilized Taveres has the remainder of President da Silva's term to make good on his promises to clean up the government and help Brazil step up from a regional power to one with truly global reach. Economics Brazil was able to capitalize on its supply of oil to weather the worst of the global recession. With the addition of new fields fully explored in 2010 Brazil became South America's leading oil producer and lacking the protectionist 'gringos out' policies of its neighbors quickly became the preferred source of South American oil for western nations. Additionally Brazil's comparatively free regulations on foreign investment allowed numerous businesses forced out of neighboring countries set up their South American operations in Brazil expanding its manufacturing sector considerably. These two factors contributed considerably to Brazil being able to prevent its economy retracting during the recession and be among the first countries to bounce back at its end which in turn allowed its agricultural and financial sectors weather the storm as well. Despite the general rosy financial picture, Brazil's ambitions towards becoming a major player in the financial services market have taken a serious hit due to corruption in that industry. The most famous case of this corruption is the failure of Brazilian securities authorities to catch Felipe Serrador who operated a Ponzi scheme in the fashion of Bernie Madoff for five years before he was exposed by local reporters and finally arrested by Brazilian authorities. This and the general opinion that most of the regulatory bodies are corrupt or simply inept has led many investors to be skeptical of investing in Brazil and halting expansion of any plans to build existing financial service providers. This issue is of particular import to the business community who has made it clear to President Taveres that he should make this a priority. Social Issues Brazil's social ills are many, but none are more prevalent than poverty and crime. Despite the country's prosperity there is a wide gap between the richest and poorest Brazilians. In 2012 the richest 10% received 50% of the nation's income and the poorest 10% received only 1%. Further crime and crime particularly violent crime, is rampant with 48,245 murders in 2012 and the majority of crimes committed being unsolved. Tied to both these issues are the further issues of drugs and corruption. Many of Brazil's poorest citizens are addicted to drugs, and it is a problem that is spreading into youth of the middle class. Controlling the supply and distribution of the drugs are a number of powerful and well armed cartels who produce, import and export drugs from the country and control a number of the ghettos in some of Brazil's biggest cities. These cartels along with other organized crime groups contribute to the culture of corruption that is prevalent throughout the Brazilian government, buying local officials as well as police officers in order to protect their illegal activities. However corruption doesn't stop with criminals, legal entities also engage in bribery and it is often the only way to secure some service in the poorer parts of the country. Embezzlement is another big issue facing the government as many civil servants line their pockets with money marked for other things, which in turn degrade the services going to the public, often to the point that in the poorer areas they are virtually non-existent forcing them to turn to alternative authorities such as gangs for what they need. In addition to the numerous problems caused by crime, drugs and corruption the environment has become an increasingly important issue for Brazilians especially those in urban areas where smog has become a serious problem. While many international organizations such as Greenpeace, put pressure on the Brazilian government to protect the Amazon rainforest and stop the slash and burn tactics employed by the local cattle producers to expand grazing land. Defense Brazil's armed forces are continuing their drive to upgrade in 2013 however with the focus turned on the Army instead of the Air Force and Navy as has traditionally been the case. For example some army units have antiquated equipment sometimes upwards of 40 years old while the Air Force has just received over 100 newly built JAS 39s and the Navy has just launched its first nuclear powered attack sub. During his election campaign President Taveres has promised to make modernization of the army a priority along with a commitment to build most of the new equipment domestically simultaneously rebuilding Brazil's arms industry. The armed forces currently have a budget of 3% of the GDP, slightly higher than NATO standard and there is still mandatory conscription, however exemptions are fairly easy to come by. Currently the armed forces consider domestic criminal organizations, border incursion by non-government forces from Columbia and the possibility of a attempt to ferment socialist revolution from Venezuela as the largest threats to Brazil's security. The first of these threats, criminal groups, are only reluctantly considered 'the army's business' however after the August Crisis (see timeline) which ended in the army ousting a major criminal organization from the Rocinha ghetto in Rio de Janeiro it is clear that these gangs are becoming too well armed for the police alone to handle and regular urban warfare training has become a standard practice for all units of the army. As to the other threats, conflict from Columbia spilling over to Brazil, and socialist uprising spurred by Venezuela have been dealt with in the same way, both countries borders have been reinforced and a number of intelligence assets human and electronic have been deployed in order to detect and thwart either of these problems before they become a major security issue. However there are some of the old guard who feel Chavez is too much of a threat to remain in power on Brazil's border and are pushing for more direct action against the dictator. Finally Brazil has had the capacity to produce 6 nuclear bombs per year since the late 70's, however the current administration as with the ones before it remains committed to refraining from developing any such weapons and following the launch of its nuclear powered sub allowed the IAEA to inspect both the sub and their power plants to prove to their neighbors only the sub's power systems are nuclear. Foreign Relations Brazil's major diplomatic objectives are three fold: financial, cultural, and political integration with the Latin American community, acquire new trade agreements with the developed and developing world, gain entry to both the UN Security Council as a permanent member and becoming part of the G8. All three of these objectives have been given the support of President Taveres, and he has promised many times throughout his campaign that they will be a priority for his administration. In addition Brazil has indicated it will continue to vigorously support multinational organizations like the UN, Mercosur, and the Organization of American States as opposed to seeking unilateral solutions to international conflicts. Timeline 2010 February - Felipe Serrador, a major investment guru with connections to Brazil's oldest families is accused and later confesses to major securities fraud reducing confidence in Brazil's stock market. New laws are passed as a result but many pundits opine they are mostly token gestures as enforcement remains the main problem. Felipe Serrador flees the country while on bail and takes up residence in Venezuela. 2010 - Former Vice President da Silva wins the Presidential Elections against several rivals including newcomer Jaoa Taveres, while Taveres is unable to win the presidency, his Moral Democrats are able to form a coalition government with the Worker's Party and the Brazilian Republican Party. 2010 October - Petrobras confirms the Jupiter off shore oil field at approximately 5 billion BOE confirming Brazil's reserves of oil the largest in South America. The government agrees to a partnership with private firms to exploit the new field. 2011 August - "The August Crisis". Three prominent American businessmen are kidnapped in Rio on August 8th the Amigos dos Amigos criminal group is implicated. On August 12th one of the prisoners is released when part of the requested ransom is paid. Federal Police unable to locate the remaining prisoners arrest the leader of the Amigos and put out the word he will be released if the prisoners are. August 13th the body of one of the businessmen is thrown into the street outside the Rocinha ghetto controlled by the gang. August 15th Rio's military police special police operations battalion storms the Rocinha ghetto and after an hour long gun battle rescue the final hostage. The leader of the Amigos is 'shot while trying to escape' the same day. August 17th-20th several members of both the Civil, State and Military police are shot dead in retaliatory attacks. At the request of the Mayor of Rio de Janeiro and the governor of Rio de Janeiro state President da Silva orders the army to intervene and oust the Amigos dos Amigos gangs from the Rocinha ghetto. August 26th, "Red Thursday" Brazilian troops enter the Rocinha ghetto and engage the Amigos dos Amigos gang in day long fighting intent on destroying the gang's major strongholds. The initial day of fighting costs the lives of 13 soldiers and 428 civilians and forces from the Brazilian army occupy the ghetto until September 3rd during which time five more soldiers are killed as are 38 civilians whom the government claims were gang members. The invasion of their territory and the loss of their leader ends the Amigos dos Amigos gang, and the operation is declared a victory by the da Silva government. Jaoa Taveres is quietly disciplined by his coalition for speaking in opposition of the operation declaring it 'a victory for no one but Satan'. 2012 - The 1350 MW Angra 3 nuclear reactor goes online in April, The San Antonio dam opens in June adding a further 3150 MWs to Brazil's struggling power grid. The first off-shore rig begins drilling the Jupiter field. 2012 May - State prosecutors in Bahia charge several members of the state government of embezzling funds that were meant for health and education projects. Protests follow in the poorest regions of the state and the accused are shot at on the way to the state court house causing the police to have to break up the protests with force. 2012 June - Documents discovered in the embezzlement case indicate that people higher up in the government knew about what was going on. 2012 July - New charges are laid against staffers in the governor of Bahia's office who it appears knew about the embezzlement and were receiving kickbacks. 2012 August - Brazilian news and documentary channel GNT airs a documentary on the August crisis that points out that while the Amigos dos Amigos gang was destroyed the struggle to fill the power vacuum actually increased the violence in the area and today a new gang simply occupies the old Amigos stronghold. 2012 August - Jaos Taveres openly supports the Bahia investigation which forces the President to do the same or appear to be supporting the embezzlers. Shortly afterwards the Governor of Bahia resigns for personal reasons and is later to on one's surprise implicated in the embezzlement scandal. 2012 September - Amidst protests against government corruption, Brazil's Independence Day marks the official launch of its prototype nuclear powered attack sub. On the 10th suspicion falls on the office of the President in the Bahia scandal, investigators are uncertain how to proceed knowing that da Silva, a former defense minister, is popular with the army. Senator Taveres is approached and he brings the evidence to the President. September 20th Senator Taveres is accused of corruption and arrested by the Federal police. Protests erupt in the streets when word is released by Taveres' supporters that the President is implicated in the Bahia scandal. September 21st President da Silva shuts down the investigation into the corruption scandal through a Provisional Measure and protests intensify. September 25th Acting President of the Moral Democrats Jaime Taro Nacamura meets with representatives from the major political parties and presents the President with a petition calling for the reinstatement of the corruption investigation and release of Senator Taveres. September 27th after two nervous days of waiting, the President meets with the major political parties including a freed Jaoa Taveres. 2012 October - October 1st the President admits his guilt and the guilt of the Vice President and both officially resign from office. Under the constitution, the Speaker of the House of Deputies becomes acting President and an election is called for December 29th. 2012 December - President Taveres is elected in the special election as President of Brazil and is required to serve until December 31st 2014. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: http://esteroic.com/pipermail/war_esteroic.com/attachments/20090628/ee18ae86/attachment-0001.html