[War] UK 2013

[Michael Brittain]

Country long name: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Head of State: HM Queen Elizabeth II
Head of Government: Prime Minister Jonathon Campbell
Population: 64, 127, 666
GDP (PPP): $2.231 trillion
GDP (PPP) per capita: $38, 523
Unemployment: 7.1%.
Economic Growth: 2.0 %

Political Landscape

The United Kingdom entered an era of political turmoil toward the end of the Brown Government, and the Labour party promptly imploded during a heavy election defeat at the hands of David Cameron's conservatives in 2010. The Tories gained a majority of 78 in the House of Commons, with notable ministers losing their seats, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling. Gordon Brown promptly resigned as labour leader, and Cameron formed his government in May of 2010, seemingly ending the turmoil. During his first year as Prime Minister, Cameron led a government that set out to tackle the effects of the economic downturn. He froze public spending and introduced tax cuts for businesses and national insurance contributions for the poorest earners. These measures helped to help boost the economy somewhat, although he stopped short of tighter banking legislation, which drew fierce criticism. 

 

Cameron enjoyed quite a high popularity during his first year in power, but his political 'honeymoon' was coming toward its end fast. Cameron was embroiled in a sleaze scandal not of his own making; a number of prominent Tory ministers were caught taking payments to favour certain construction contracts in various government departments. The allegations were made by a tabloid newspaper that had been investigating the ministers for quite some time, believing them all to be taking significant 'consultancy fees' for companies that later were awarded successful construction contracts by the government. Calls for their immediate sacking heaped pressure on the Prime Minister, who saw the individuals involved as loyal to his leadership and important to keep on side, despite the allegations. Following a police investigation, two junior ministers were removed from their positions to face charges, yet, surprisingly, no evidence was found, nor any charges brought against any senior ministers believed to be involved. The ministers involved were 'moved up stairs' and not publicly sacked, which sparked outrage and caused further disenchantment of the electorate to the government. Many saw it as Cameron simply refusing to believe that they had done anything wrong, and while no charges were eventually brought against them, many in the public domain saw it as down right incompetence by the ministers at best, illegal and corruption at the worst.

 

The senior civil servant that leaked the information to the press was subsequently removed from his position. This further fuelled public outrage as the entire investigation was seen as a white wash, harassed and blocked by the PM's office as much as possible. One senior police officer even commented off record that senior ministers had hindered the investigation, but stopped short of naming the Prime Minister nor any individual ministers. The revelations came during a particularly bad week for the Prime Minister when his dealings of foreign affairs were under scrutiny following the attempted murder of a British diplomat in Russia. His unpopularity was further compounded when he refused a public sector pay rise, causing mass protests by the unions. Pressure mounted for him to resign from inside his own party as systematic blunders from his cabinet led him to be seen as a PM losing his grip. His ability to carry on finally came to end after he suffered a heart attack and underwent a triple heart by pass, just months after disastrous local election results. On the 17th June 2012, Cameron resigned as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party. He cited personal reasons and losing the support of his party as the main reasons.

 

George Osbourne, the former Chancellor, facing little opposition from a Conservative party in disarray, was elected as Tory leader and thus Prime Minister. Cameron's resignation came amidst a backdrop of political turmoil, not just in the UK, but also across the world. The British population feared for their future, particularly with three Prime Ministers in as many years. Sleaze, scandal, and weak governments had led to a strong erosion of trust in the British political system. People were losing interest and fast becoming cynical about government in general. The attempted assassination of Queen Elizabeth sparked outrage, and publicly unsettling many in the government and population. The incident shook the UK to its core, with the unthinkable very nearly happening. Stephen Briggs, a police officer in the Queens protection detail that gave his life to save Her Majesty, was awarded a state funeral and the Queens Police Medal for bravery. A manhunt for the assassin was underway, eventually leading to a mentally disturbed member of the Republic movement, Michael Drake, who was arrested and charged with the attempted assassination and murder of PC Briggs. He was sentenced to 80 years on the 25th November 2012. The aftermath of the attempted assassination left the republican movement in disarray.  It became political dangerous to be known as a Republican, and the attacks were portrayed by many (not least by Buckingham Palace) as an attack against Britain and the British way of life, rather than against the monarchy itself. This led to an upsurge in support for the monarchy, particularly with political scandals appearing annually in the new.  Many people respected more deeply the Queens position above politics, giving people a figurehead and a non-political institution that could be looked up to.

 

Labour leader Jonathon Campbell, former Treasury minister and outspoken critic of Cameron's 'lacklustre' policies and lack of presence on the international stage, challenged the government to call an election. He proposed tougher action on corrupt MPs, promising to put pride back into the country. A moderate member of the Labour Party and self-confessed former Blairite, he backed plans to increase public spending because of economic recovery, and proposed far-reaching reforms to public services. Osbourne, faced with a troubled, short premiership felt he was left with little choice but to go to the electorate, and the result was far from surprising. He failed to turn the tide of public opinion against the Tories, with his plans for tighter budget restrictions forcing voters back to Labour. In reality, the tight control of the budget that Osbourne had overseen as Chancellor had helped put the British economy back on track, but the lack of investment in health care and education left them deeply unpopular, with some services said to be "crumbling".  The Tory party was rattled and becoming increasingly deeply unpopular by the day, and when pitted against a much likeable Labour party, it was no surprise they lost the general election. 

 

Jonathon Campbell was elected as the next Prime Minister at the age of 46 on the back of a 38-seat majority in the commons in September of 2012, but the general election campaign propelled the Labour party into further debt. With the party having to come to terms with weaker links with the trade unions, especially after New Labour governments, it would become a very difficult balancing act to satisfy the unions to maintain funding their essential funding, while pushing through more left of centre policies. 

 

Campbell's initial few months in power were successful, maintaining his lead in opinion polls and building support by championing tougher policies on immigration and foreign affairs. Education and the NHS remain big political issues to the public, and it is unclear how Campbell's plan to expand the 'internal market' of the NHS will be perceived. An initial opponent of University top up fees, Campbell has recently conceded it is too late to scrap them.

Economics

 

The UK remains a leading trading power and financial centre. Having suffered from the global credit crunch, the economy has since late 2012 started to show significant improvements in growth. The economy stagnated for a number of years after the banking crisis, forcing the Cameron government to lower taxes and public spending. This, alongside a global recovery, helped encourage growth, resulting in the growth figures for 2012 to be an encouraging 2.0%. Unemployment has begun to climb down since the recovery, but is still relatively high at 7.1%. The UK's economy remains mainly service based, representing 81% of employment, with industry sectors still to recover fully from the recession, representing a mere 18.4%. Britain's rapid decline in manufacturing over the late twentieth century continued into the 21st, with the industry suffering at the hands of the cheap labour abroad. 

 

Although the economic policies of the Brown government helped stabilise the banking system resulting in a part nationalisation of the banks, they also plunged the UK into record levels of debt, an issue that remained a high priority for successive governments. Government debt has been tackled by a freeze of public spending and forcing the budget into a surplus. Budgetary decisions made in the later years of Cameron's premiership did prove increasingly unpopular, with limited investment in public services, but succeeded in bringing down national debt levels. 

 

Both Cameron and more recently Campbell have brought forward major building projects, injecting cash to redevelop poorer areas to help boost employment. The defence review conducted in 2010 recommended major improvements and procurement options, resulting in further building projects to help defence firms and ship builders, boosting employment levels. Tax cuts for the manufacturing and exports industries hope to fuel growth in these industries. Investment in new technologies is a priority for Campbell's government, believing it necessary to keep the UK economy competitive.

 

The result of the 2010 strategic defence review called for greater shipbuilding and defence procurement over the next decade. The investment boosted areas of the economy significantly, with lucrative contracts awarded to British contractors in the aerospace and ship building industries, which were previously flagging and forcing redundancies. The review advised that wherever possible British contractors be used, and with the hope that Commonwealth nations may be interested in certain military hardware.

 

Social Issues
 

A controversial topic in Britain is immigration. Waves of migrant workers from Eastern Europe fuelled resentment from British workers, rightly or wrongly, as they were seen to be taking up jobs during a recession. The British public, although tolerant of migrants and different cultures, are concerned with the political implications of such unregulated immigration from Eastern Europe. People are concerned with the pressures placed on the health and emergency services, schools and housing. Crime is another loosely related issue, and the influx of firearms and drugs brought into the UK by a very small minority of Easter Europeans. Successive governments have gone to great lengths to combat organised crime, gang culture and knife crime.

 

The UK's large social security bills are thought to be facing cuts; an unusual target for a Labour government. Social security payments remained relatively untouched during Cameron's premiership due to the high levels of unemployment, coupled with a higher percentage of families below the poverty line, however it is thought that Campbell wants to redirect money to schemes to help get people back into work and in the process lower expenditure and unemployment.  

Defence

 

There was a significant watershed moment in the outlook on defence policy and spending in 2010 when a group of former military officers, families of dead and injured soldiers and various military charities challenged the government in the High Court over incompetence in the procurement of personal safety equipment and land vehicles. They felt current provisions were unsafe and unsatisfactory, alongside a lack of basic equipment and logistic support. The case centred on equipment lacking in important safety features due to 'cut backs' which many people believed had led to unnecessary deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although legally the case did little and was thrown out due to a lack of evidence, the wider public reaction was huge, particularly as the issue had been simmering for a long time. The people involved in the case knew that the it would most likely not get far, but they saw it primarily as an opportunity and as a publicity stunt to bring the issue to the forefront to ensure the British Armed Forces were properly equipped. 

 

People, both civilians and military personnel, had for a while known of harsh cut backs in defence spending as successive governments squeezed the budget, despite expanding commitments abroad. There was anger directed toward the Cameron government as the movement spread (most notably with a number of celebrity endorsements), and the government were forced to conduct a wholesale review of the armed forces. Many in government saw this as a crossroads in Britain's future as a world player; either cut the military capability of the UK and retire gracefully as a global power, particularly considering the military spending of China and the rise in defence spending globally, or authorise significant investment in the armed forces to protect the UK's interests and position in the world.

 

The government chose the latter, authorising a £38.5 Billion procurement plan over and above the defence budget spread over the next 12years (amounting to roughly £3-5B a year), and increased the defence budget to 3.3% of GDP from 2.6%. A cross party committee was set up to guide investment, resulting in the 'Strategic Defence Review'. The review called for increases in manpower, better pay and better accommodation to all three services, most notably the British Army (up 30,000 by 2016) due to their continued role in peacekeeping deployments around the world. Procurement for suitable army equipment, from improved clothing to a better standard of armoured vehicle and military hardware, was a great relief to generals. A significant upgrade in the technological capabilities of all three services was called for. The senior service, the Royal Navy, was rewarded with a DD/FF fleet requirement of 40 to be met by the end of the decade, increasing the number of Type 45 destroyers in service to 14 (all entering service by 2016). The capability and strength of the RN was viewed as essential for the UK to respond rapidly and decisively in the event of conflict. Proposals to build a third and final CVF aircraft carrier, the King George VI, to complement the two carriers due in service by 2015 is currently open to debate, with successive governments yet to give their approval. Procurement for 15 astute class submarines was given the green light to replace all existing nuclear attack submarines by 2018, as well as an order placed for a second helicopter carrier/amphibious assault to enter service by 2018. Design work on the Future Surface Combatant, the replacement for the 13 Type 23 frigates and 4 Type 22 frigates, was completed in early 2012 and orders placed for an initial 20 units, eventually rising to 24. The ships are planned to be similar in design to the Type 45 destroyer weighing in at about 6,500 tones, with improved anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare, and considerable land attack capabilities. The first of these new ships is due to enter sea trials by early 2016, with the last batch estimated to be in service 2028. The Royal Air Force was given a moderate increase in manpower and investment in its strategic lift capabilities, purchasing a further 10 C17 aircraft before the Boeing production line closed. Options exist to place further orders (roughly  80-100) for the F35 Joint Strike Fighter subject to government approval, but the most pressing procurement was an increase in helicopter numbers for both the RAF and Army Air Corps to assist ground forces. The RAF is also likely to see a further improvement in its strategic life capabilities.

 

The upshot of the defence review was a greater capability of the British Armed forces, putting to an end the chronic under funding of successive governments. The aim was to enhance the UK's position as a leading military power, hoping to ensure its power projection capabilities remained one of the best in the world- although this remains a difficult challenge with the rise in defence spending globally. The review recognised that although significant areas were to be improved, the UK would never be able to compete with other nations purely on a numerical basis, but instead called for increased technological advances in cooperation with Europe and the United States to maintain an advantage. Furthermore, a decision to replace Trident by 2018 was approved initially by Tony Blair and by the three successive governments, and is currently on time, albeit slightly over budget.

Foreign Relations

The UK has remained relatively quiet as of late, still recovering, both politically and militarily from its commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq. Foreign relations with the European Union turned frosty during David Cameron's premiership, with his weird and often strange alliances with fringe parties in the European Parliament. Despite this, the UK has tried to maintain close relations with the rest of Europe, but with France and Germany in particular. The UK has sought to increase economic and military cooperation, believing that any future crisis, either economically or militarily will be better solved either in a coalition or with the EU. 

 

Trans-Atlantically, Britain's relationship with the United States has come under scrutiny from the British public, concerned by being viewed as an unequal partner in the "Special Relationship". British politicians of late have attempted to redress the balance, while maintaining the high levels of cooperation militarily and in intelligence circles, the current government hope to continue and increase such levels of cooperation, although not at its own expense. 

 

The UK also maintains close ties with some of the commonwealth, most noticeably Canada, Australia and New Zealand, hoping to increase its military exports to those countries in particular.
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