[War] Special Report: Update on the Situation

[Michael Downey]

(As of 5 May 2014)


Iran has marched unopposed into Azerbaijan, sweeping away what little
military resistance the outnumbered and outgunned Azerbaijanis have been
able to put up. The entire South-western half of the country, all the way
from the Iranian border to the city of Yevlax. So far the Iranians have not
switched their invasion East to conquer the rest of the country but
consolidate what they have taken.

The Russian Federation has been up in arms with anger. Colonel-General
Rezakaev, Chief of the General Staff and acting Minister of Defence, has
condemned Iran's invasion as a thinly-disguised land grab and refuted Iran's
evidence of Kurdish rebels operating out of Southern Azerbaijan. Already
Russian military units have begun mobilizing throughout all military
districts and significant air and rail travel towards the Russian Army's
mustering center at Krasnodor. Their response to the idea of NATO sending
troops to help evict the Iranians by force have met with complete approval
from Moscow, which it seems is just days away from declaring war.

Meanwhile President Nemerenko is more chilly towards Chinese overtures,
apparently displeased that China has been entertaining the idea of Iran's
claims being true and inviting an Iranian delegation to Beijing. However the
Russians are not foolish enough to openly spur an ally as powerful as China
and have stated they would accept any aid offered, particularly in
intelligence.

American, Chinese and French intelligence efforts have yielded some results.
While the Iranian claims cannot be disproved, there as of yet exists no real
evidence that Kurdish rebels have been operating in Azerbaijan as the
Iranians claim. The Iranian government has supplied China with intelligence
reports and photos of Kurdish bases and training camps that seem authentic
but the MSS also notes such evidence can be fabricated.

Even more curious is the fact that several guided rocket systems and RPG
tubes captured by Russian military forces stamping out rebel units in around
Grozny; while the equipment is of Russian design like most weapons used by
the Chechens, they were manufactured without serial numbers or other
identification indicators. All these inconsistencies and the coincidental
timings of the attacks in Chechnya, Abkhazia and South Ossetia have most
intelligence agencies doubting the authenticity of Iran's assertions.

Still, Iran maintains its justifications for the invasion and has appealed
to China for assistance, desiring to purchase large amounts of heavy weapons
including tanks and surface-to-air missile systems and their support in the
UN. The Iranians have not been shy about trying to exploit China's recent
troubles with the United States, and to a certain extent the Russians, in
their attempts to curry favour in Beijing.

Azerbaijan has issued a general call for aid, begging the UN to intervene
and for NATO and Russia to dispatch troops to help liberate their lost
territory from Iranian control. Georgia, always weary of Iran, has been more
than happy to entertain the idea of NATO forces staging operations from
their territory. In fact the Georgians have already asked for the United
States to increase its forces in the country in the event of possible
Iranian incursions. Meanwhile Armenia has declared neutrality due to their
never being any love lost between Armenia and Azerbaijan and fear of Iran.

Pakistan has entertained the idea of Chinese troops operating from their
territory but has not committed to anything yet. It seems Islamabad would
prefer to remain neutral and let the other nations fight it out.

While Chechnya remains a hotspot with continued fighting around Grozny, the
Russian and EU peacekeepers have managed to restore a somewhat fragile order
to Abkhazia and South Ossetia which are smaller, less populous and with a
resistance that was largely gutted by the withdrawal of Russian support over
the past year. Sporadic shootings by lone gunmen have occurred but deaths
are minimal on both sides.
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