[War] China: "Inconvenient"

[Chazenesq2b at aol.com]

"Inconvenient"
 
President Xia Hong
The People's Republic of China
April 22, 2014
============================================
 
(The Executive Resident- Beijing)
 
The secured Conference Room in the Executive Residence was rarely  used.  Xia 
typically preferred meeting her advisors one at a time, handling  each issue 
in turn rather than taking everything at once.  Occasionally  however you came 
across situations that required multiple points of view, and  concurrent 
operations, to get through.  Pre-planning for the North Korean  operation for 
example.  Natural disaster response was the last reason the  room had been 
utilized... and now the prospect of an all out war in an area  harboring one quarter 
of the world's remaining petroleum reserves... that was  the reason the full 
cabinet had been assembled this go around.
 
"Let's get the easy job out of the way first."  Xia announced as she  took 
her seat at the head of the oval table.  "I've drawn up an official  memorandum 
that will be forwarded to the Russian government, offering our  condolences 
for their loss as well as offering any assistance we can  provide.  I expect 
everyone here to sign it."
 
The document was passed around.  Everyone signed it.
 
"Now, the more pressing issue.  Iran and Azerbaijan."  Xia tucked  the 
document in a diplomatic courier's book carrying the official seal of China  and 
passed it off to an aide from State who would oversee the actual delivery of  the 
document.  "What do we know?"
 
Marrim Cai, head of the Ministry of Security and Intelligence knew the  
question was addressed to him, even if it was asked aloud.  "Very little,  madam 
President.  The fact of the matter is that Azerbaijan has never been  'that' 
important, and thus we have few assets in the area.  What we do know  is limited 
to human intelligence gathered from Iran itself, and the television  reports.  
Our contacts in the Iranian government received no information  regarding the 
terrorist attacks the Iranians are citing as casus belli for their  invasion. 
 This indicates a likelihood that the Iranian government is  attempting to 
mislead us.  We have no concrete evidence yet either  way."
 
"I'm sure that will change."  Xia sighed, looking down on the host of  
reports assembled on the incident.  She knew Marrim would get hard to work  looking 
for new sources of information and establishing contacts.  It's  what he was 
good at.  "I'd like to avoid getting drawn into a conflict that  doesn't 
directly concern us if at all possible.  What are our diplomatic  options?"
 
Dewei Li, the Minister of State who had been uniquely critical of the North  
Korean situation (although carefully so) took it upon herself to answer the  
question as it fell into his purview.  "After discussing things with my  fellow 
ministers, I believe we've come to an agreement regarding a diplomatic  
initiative.  We should invite an Iranian delegation to Beijing to explain  the 
reasoning behind their attacks.  Should they continue to tow the same  line, we 
can then prevail upon them to allow for United Nations oversight.   A refusal of 
such would definitely clue us in upon their real intentions.   At the same 
time, we can begin negotiations with regional powers.  It's  likely the United 
States through NATO will also be looking for allies in the  area, allowing us 
to have indirect discussion regarding..."
 
"Please, let's save North Korea for later."  Xia sighed.  "In the  interim, 
you are clear to begin a diplomatic initiative in the region.   Work as closely 
as possible with the Pakistanis, their proximity and history  with Iran would 
make them valuable allies.  Other nations of interest  naturally would be 
Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekhistan, Armenia,  and Georgia.  I'd 
like to request Russian diplomatic and economic  involvement as well."  She 
didn't want the Russians to feel overwhelmed,  and asking for a commitment of any 
kind to military intervention at this point,  before the avenues of diplomacy 
had been tried would be doing just that.   "And please do invite the Iranian 
delegation.  I would like to speak to  them directly regarding their 
intentions.  We may also want to see a  delegation from Azerbaijan... although we've 
had lukewarm decent relations with  the Iranians, I don't intend on trusting 
them to provide me with the whole  story."
 
"It's likely the Americans, through NATO, are already working on their  
response."  Bing pointed out, the Minister of Defense leaning forward as he  folded 
his hands.  "Should American troops be committed to actively  repelling the 
Iranians, one might call it poetic justice if we aided the  Iranians in 
showering Williams with as many body bags as possible."
 
"Poetic maybe, justice absolutely not."  Xia sneered in a way so  palpable 
most of those in the room aware of Bing's level of access were  astonished.  The 
fact of the matter was, although she did an excellent job  at hiding it when 
necessary, she loved America.  Part of her, the part who  had an American 
mother and was daughter to a Chinese Ambassador, absolutely  loved the principles 
upon which that nation was founded.  Likewise however,  she absolutely hated 
the adeptness of the American public to dredge up the  absolute dumbest members 
of it's society, and than elect the worst of the worst  into positions of 
power.  "I am not Williams, and I will not be fighting a  war by proxy out of a 
desire for vengeance, regardless of how well deserved it  would be.  I can't do 
that to the innocent family members of those who  would die, to the citizens 
of three nations, not just to make a point of  spite!"  Taking a breath she 
refocused herself.  "If the Iranians can  provide the evidence to support their 
claims satisfactorily, than we will  provide diplomatic support for them at 
the United Nations.  If they can  not... then we will proceed with punitive 
measures, starting with diplomatic  isolation."
 
"We can also use economic retaliation as a tool."  Qiang Feng, the  Minister 
of Commerce pointed out.  He didn't normally speak at these  meetings, being 
more of an introvert and economic genius than political  strategist.  However 
there were times when he could get a spark of  brilliance.  "We are their 
second largest export and import market, behind  Japan and Germany respectively.  
Both Japan and Germany are likely to  follow the American line if history is to 
be considered, and therefore Iran  would be more reliant on us than normal.  
A threat of severing that  relationship could bring them to terms... as for 
dealing with any lapse in  petrol supplies, I'm pleased to report I fully 
believe the Chinese economy can  cope.  Greater ethanol production, the provision of 
new hydro, nuclear, and  even solar power sources, I believe the policies 
this government has pursued  over the previous year make us uniquely resilient 
compared to the past.  In  addition, a closer relationship with Russia could 
mean that we would be able to  offset any loss in Iranian imports almost 
completely."
 
"Agreed.  I think it's obvious that nobody will leave 'this' situation  
unscathed."  Xia murmured as she contemplated the option.  Damned  Iranians picked 
a real inconvenient time to crazy fanatic on everyone.  "I  would like all of 
you to establish an inter-operative council to make  recommendations on what 
we can expect 'if' Iran does not change course, and how  China can best prepare 
itself and react.  I know we've been trying to move  away from fossil fuels, 
but whatever research we are involved in that area must  be advanced."
 
There were nods all around.
 
"Now, military options?"  She hated asking that question.
 
"If all else fails, we will require significant international assistance,  at 
least passively, to make a military operation feasible."  Bing put a  folder 
on the table.  "We have the manpower to handle North Korea 'and' two  other 
smaller operations simultaneously if need be, but the planning for combat  also 
means having the 'right' troops available.  Our air transport and sea  
transport assets are largely tied down in North Korea, so direct insertion of  combat 
forces ourselves is unfeasible at this time.  Slightly more  feasible, but 
unlikely, would be persuading Afghanistan or Pakistan to allow us  to use their 
nation as a staging point for an invasion, but given how things are  I don't 
think either nation would look forward to having at least 300,000  Chinese 
troops on their soil, regardless of how temporary it might be.   Should it come 
down to a force of arms, providing material support and training  to the 
Azerbaijani resistance would be our best bet to influence events in the  region.  
Cooperation from one or all of the regional players would be  key."
 
"Let's hope it doesn't come down to that, but I can't plead to be  
optimistic."  Xia rubbed her temples.  "We should also take law  enforcement and 
internal security precautions.  The Iranians are known for  their use of terrorism as 
a tool of foreign policy."
 
"I've already established a specific task force with Mr. Peng and Mr.  Cai."  
Bing had figured she'd bring that out.  "Sharing of  intelligence, personnel, 
resources... China is secure from external terrorist  attack, and the level 
of violence in North Korea and Tibet seems like it's  beginning to level out, 
if not decrease."
 
"Good to hear."  Xia sat back a little further in her chair.   "Now... North 
Korea.  I trust you've all received the French Ambassador's  memorandum?"
 
"It was a good laugh."  Zhifu Pan, Minister of Government Affairs  smiled.  
In charge of the framework of China's beuracracy, his thoughts  really didn't 
matter save as a voice of the more hard-line elements in China's  government.  
"I know the French were trying to prove a point, but you would  'think' 
someone in Paris would have fact-checked such a memo before sending it  out."  He 
was of course referring to the rebuke regarding 'not having  authorization' from 
North Korea to be in North Korea.
 
"You would think so."  Xia had to agree, that was a stupid  assertion.  It 
would have been nice if people bothered 'listening' to North  Korea's citizenry 
rather than make up the facts as they see fit.  "Ms. Li,  I take it I can 
trust you to respond to our Franco comrades?  Please inform  them that we 'are' in 
fact invited even if it wasn't by them, that we 'do' have  international 
authorization even if it isn't by them, and that although we are  open to 
discussions with them, we will not be arbitrating North Korea's  future.  Any and all 
statements regarding North Korea should be addressed  to the North Korean 
government, and if 'they' see fit to include us, we will be  happy to participate."
 
The former Human Rights activist turned Chinese cabinet member  nodded.  
"Absolutely madam President."
 
"All right, now let's move on to the business of the people for  today..."
 
=====================================================
 
ACTIONS
 
1.  Send an official letter of condolence to the Russian  government.  
Promise any assistance China might be able to offer.
 
2.  China to expand it's intel gathering operations in the Middle  East, 
particularly in Iran and Azerbaijan.
 
3.  A delegation from Iran is invited to Beijing to discuss the reason  
behind the attack.  If there is evidence of good reason, China would be  able to 
turn a blind eye.  If there isn't, then other options will need to  be 
considered.  Likewise a delegation from Azerbaijan will be invited, as  well as 
representatives from all the regional players.  Pakistan's  Ambassador to China is to 
be requested to an audience with Xia herself,  regarding Pakistan's stance on 
the invasion.
 
4.  If Iran CAN NOT produce satisfactory evidence, China to pursue a  policy 
of isolating Iran diplomatically, economically, and possibly  supporting 
Azerbaijani resistance.  Support would be limited to provision  of small arms, 
ammunition, mortars, land mines, provisions and supplies, and  basic training.
 
5.  Council to be set up composed of experts from all ministries to  predict 
what challenges China may face if it elects to irritate Iran, and how  best to 
streamline the institution of greener technologies and alternative power  
sources into the Chinese economy.
 
6.  Bureau of Internal Security to be set up between Ministries of  Justice, 
Defense, and Security and Intelligence aimed specifically at protecting  China 
from the threats of terrorism.  Pooled talent and resources are the  name of 
the game.
 
7.  Send an official response to France (actual memo to follow)  basically 
diplomatically saying check your facts before opening your damn  mouth.  :-p



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