[War] USA-France: Discussions a World Apart

[Daniel Garcia]

"USA-France:  Discussions a World Apart"
President John Williams, United States of America
President Pierre Legrand, French Republic
April 22, 2014

(OOC:  This, I suppose, takes place after the first day of the  
invasion.)

In Hawaii, John Williams is in a polo shirt and shorts, looking over  
the latest briefs from the...situation in Azerbaijan on his secure comp.

"And I was supposed to be getting away from this shit," he mutters.

In Paris, Pierre Legrand walked calmly through a stormy sea of  
advisors and officers, as news continued to come in from Azerbaijan.   
Many of them had long since discarded jackets and ties.  Legrand  
remained immaculately and finely, however.  His only concession to  
casuality was that his jacket was unbuttoned, and his right hand was  
in a vest pocket.

Legrand would, from time to time, stop, ask a question or two, and  
then move on.  To those who appeared stressed he would tell an amusing  
anecdote before moving on to drain some of the tension.  At this point  
there wasn't much else to do.

Then he saw an aide gesturing from a doorway, and walked into the  
room.  There was waiting a computer set up to video conference with  
the President of the United States.  Legrand wasn't entirely sure  
about this new technology.  He was, perhaps, more comfortable than  
many his age with the technology, but often was at a loss for even the  
point.  He sat down in front of the computer as aides brought up the  
connection, polishing his glasses while he waited.

The NATO star appeared on both screens.

PLEASE STAND BY, read the text below it, in both languages.

"Monsieur President," Williams said as his image appeared in Paris  
(and Legrand's image appeared on the screen in Hawaii), "Welcome to  
the world of technology." There was a playful grin on his face as he  
teased the older man; he knew of the other's doubts, and couldn't help  
but needle him a bit. "I'm told NRO has sent our satellite take over?"

"Hello Mr. President," Legrand said.  The younger man was smiling at  
him playfully as Legrand also briefly eyed the screen carefully,  
hunching over as he did so.  The quality was amazing, almost as good  
as the old science fiction films had promised.  To Legrand, Williams'  
smile seemed to grow a bit as he did this.  Legrand straitened  
himself, taking on his usual rigid posture.  The aide closest to the  
screen moved quickly to adjust the position.  It had been forgotten  
that Legrand was quite tall and liked to sit quite straight.

"Yes, we have the images here.  What do your people say about the  
scale of the forces the Iranians have deployed?"

"They're going for the oil fields, division strike force of  
Revolutionary Guard, including the airborne troops dropped." Williams  
stated. "They picked Nagorno-Karabakh to invade, so I have the  
Armenians -and- the Azeris freaking out."

"That's still south of the major export pipelines," Legrand observed  
from a map an aide had handed to him.  He pondered for a moment.  "The  
Iranians, then, are going after the oil?  That seems a strange  
thought.  How developed are the oil fields in this portion of  
Azerbaijan?  Most of the oil, I seem to recall, was in the Caspian Sea  
region."

"There was a find about 5 years ago by ExxonMobil. At least 50 billion  
barrels." Williams noted, pulling up a situation map on both screens.  
"At -least-. They...were still doing exploratory drilling, using their  
local engineers, thank God."

Legrand looked thoughtful.  But then he shook his head.

"I presume the infrastructure, roads and such, are not well developed  
being away from the main centers of population.  This is difficult.   
What measures has your government undertaken," Legrand asked  
cautiously, still thinking.

"Currently we're watching and observing - The Azeris have yet to ask  
for help, so we're evacuating dependents and nonessentials. Only half  
a plane left, so if you want out with us, sign up now." Williams  
replied.

"That would be most appreciated, Mr. President," Legrand said.  Then,  
after a pause he gave a look as though he had come to a conclusion.   
"The Iranians can not be allowed to permanently occupy either part or  
all of Azerbaijan."

"Agreed, but I'm a little busy trying to put out fires in the Far East  
at the moment. Thus, for now, what the hell can we -do- about it?

"I'd suggest a UN Chapter 7 resolution, but it'd be instantly vetoed  
by China."

"Perhaps," Legrand said.  "It should in any case be tried.  However,  
there are other routes.  A sovereign nation has been invaded.  We  
should strongly suggest to the Azeri government that it ask for help,  
perhaps even go so far as to sign a treaty of alliance against Iran.   
Russian cooperation will also be necessary."

"Agreed, but do you really see Nemerenko giving a fuck about  
Azerbaijan with his Defense Minister dead? I mean, really." Williams  
noted. "Besides, Nemerenko is too much of a pragmatist to challenge an  
Iranian fait accompli, my sense of him is."

Legrand noted that Williams was quickly becoming tired, and frowned.   
He had been assured that Williams' recent public problems were minor  
in scope, but it was becoming clear that this man was too tired to  
forge ahead.  Whatever happened in the coming days, determined and  
active leadership would be necessary, leadership which had, since the  
end of the Second World War, came from the President of the United  
States.  If the American President was too tired to rise to the  
occasion, there were serious problems.

"I think you underestimate the likely concern of the Russian  
government," Legrand said, hiding his concerns effectively.  "The  
Caucasus are, by the Russians' own declaration, their sphere of  
influence.  They are not likely to take kindly to this invasion.  Of  
course, the Russians have their hands full at the moment.  But at the  
very minimum, we will need the Russians' acquiescence."

Legrand paused for a moment, and looked down at the map in his hands.   
Then he continued.

"Unless you believe the Iranians are likely to crumple under  
diplomatic pressure, or respond to sanctions which will necessarily be  
incomplete, the likely course that events must follow is that Iran  
must be ejected from Azerbaijan through the use of force.  There are,  
as a matter of geography, a limited number of ways to come at Iran  
keeping in mind that our goal is to liberate Azerbaijan and not  
conquer Iran.  Russia is the best route, using it's infrastructure and  
the Caspian Sea would be the simplest way to get to the heart of the  
problem.  The only other proximate avenues by which the Iranian  
advance may be countered are through Georgia or Turkey and Armenia,  
both presenting less infrastructure and in the case of Turkey and  
Armenia greater natural obstacles.  And moreover, the Georgians also  
have their hands full."

Williams looked thoughtful. "The bullet snugly under my skin keeps me  
wary," he noted, gesturing at his chest. "Long story behind it, but I  
will say it ain't a NATO-standard round."

Then. "Wanta bet those incidents are Iranian in origin? No evidence,  
but it feels about right."

"Indeed," Legrand nodded.  "It has occurred to us.  At this point,  
there's not much we can do about that except look for evidence that  
these events *are* related.  That would strengthen our hands  
diplomatically, but it doesn't change the basic dilemma.  We can not  
accept Iranian occupation of Azerbaijan, but the Iranians are unlikely  
to remove themselves without the use of force against them."

"Yeah, and mine are out of position, land forces anyway."

"I don't think anyone is in position," Legrand said with a dour  
smile.  "It will be some time before any of our forces can reach the  
region.  In the meantime, we should begin pushing on the diplomatic  
front, and should begin planning for a military campaign."

"Agreed - You'll need to carry the water diplomatically, though I'll  
assist. My being an Iraq -and- Afghanistan vet is ripe for Iranian  
posturing. Meanwhile, I plan to ask the North Atlantic Council to have  
SACEUR stand up the NATO Response Force - will France be  
contributing?" Williams asked.

"I think I can guarantee that France will be fully involved here,"  
Legrand said firmly.

"Understood....Kayleigh would hurt me if she heard this, but...Damn,  
part of me wishes I was still on active duty right now, tabbed for  
combat," Willams mentioned. Then, a squeal could be heard, followed by  
"Bababababababababababa", from off-camera. Luke, evidently, felt it  
necessary to announce that he was awake.

Legrand smiled warmly, remembering when his own children had been  
young.  Those had been good days.  Of course, Mathieu had been quite  
load at times.

"I myself was never in the military, and wouldn't have been of any use  
had I been," Legrand said, before steering the conversation back  
towards the major issues at hand.

"We should, at least, begin thinking of from where we will act against  
Iran if it becomes necessary," he said.  "It's a question with  
military dimensions, but also diplomatic ones.  I feel that we should  
try to persuade the Russians to allow us to operate out of their  
territory.  That way we can either shield or quickly liberate, as the  
case may be, the economic and political heart of Azerbaijan at Baku  
from the Iranians most easily.  Even if the Russians do not contribute  
troops, it would also be an important statement against the Iranians."

"And if they don't?"

"If they dont, though I think there is a strong chance they will,"  
Legrand said, "I think our second choice is Georgia.  As I understand,  
the terrain is the next most amenable.  Moreover, Georgia has been  
seeking to align itself with NATO for a number of years now.  This  
could easily be pitched as a stepping stone towards NATO membership,  
particularly if the Russians decline to assist to sort out this mess.   
Indeed, that would be a good point to make to the Russians to boost  
the odds that they will cooperate."

Legrand smiled wanly at the last statement.  He crossed his hands over  
his stomach.  He had at times been accused of being soft.  But  
appearances often belied reality.

"The Georgians will get membership regardless if I have anything to  
say about it," Williams replied. "They're a European island in an  
Asian sea, geography notwithstanding, same as Armenia. But we can have  
that argument later."

"The inevitability of Georgia's membership is besides the point,"  
Legrand said.  "Anything we do to hasten their membership, to make it  
more inevitable, will come hard to the Russians.  And if Georgia's  
participation indeed becomes the keystone in the arch of Georgia's  
membership admittance, the Russians would have a hard time to  
reconcile themselves."

"In any case," Legrand said, re-centering the topic, "the Russians I  
think should be the first people we approach.  It is their backyard."

"Your ball, then. For a simple reason: My doc is already threatening  
me with the 25th Amendment for this much; The arguing with the  
Russians might see him follow through."

"I understand," Legrand said slowly.  "Perhaps, then, your Secretary  
of State should make himself very visible.  American involvement will  
be key, even if France takes the lead."

"He will; Chris will be in Paris in," Williams checked a clock, "18  
hours to follow up and establish a 'forward presence' on this. Sorry  
for the short notice."

"Very good," Legrand said.  "I suppose there is one final matter of  
concern.  If hostilities with the Iranians begin, it wouldn't be  
difficult for them to close the Strait of Hormuz."

"Presuming they will. Thank God for hybrids - but we still only get a  
45 day supply out of the SPR. Plus, the Saudis can't so readily ship  
from Jeddah, I'm told."

"It would be a terrible problem," Legrand said.  "France's reserve is  
approximately the same size as yours.  Perhaps we should think about  
trying to keep the Strait open.  Even if the Saudis could switch  
ports, that leaves the Kuwaitis and Emiratis in a bind."

"I don't think it's *possible* to protect supertankers against the  
mine threat - and I'm unsure the insurers would be willing to try."

"I don't think it's possible to not try," Legrand said, being handed a  
sheet, reading as he spoke.  "When Iran's oil production was  
drastically curtailed, there was a major rise in oil prices.  Saudi  
Arabia itself produces approximately ten percent of the world's oil or  
thereabouts.  Iran produced approximately five percent, and the other  
Gulf states add another five percent.  Iraq also supplies a good  
amount of oil through the Gulf.  I'd say that it's likely that if the  
Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz, easily fifteen percent of oil now  
on the market would go off the market.  And that goes to twenty  
percent when compared to six months ago."

Legrand took his glasses off and made a small show of cleaning them  
with a handkerchief.  His face showed some of the concern it all added  
up to.

"The cost of an interruption of the supply of that much oil to the  
international economy are too high to ignore," Legrand said.  "We  
should think long and hard about doing everything we can to keep the  
Strait open.  The cost of trying to do so are high, but so would the  
cost of not doing so."

"Perhaps," Legrand said, then paused.  He was still for a moment,  
looking off the side abstractly before resuming.  "Perhaps we should  
give some consideration to occupying the Iranian side of the narrows  
on a strictly temporary basis."

Williams nodded. "If we're going to go to war, than we may as well go  
all the way with it. I hope to God our nuclear intel is right."

"Yes," Legrand said, before remembering something.  "Mr. President, I  
understand the ballistic missile defense sites in Eastern Europe are  
not yet operational.  Do you know how much effort it would take to  
bring those sites to operational status?"

Williams typed quickly. "Three weeks, if you have cash to spare to  
rush some of the work from an 8-hour day to a 3-shift cycle; I won't  
be able to get the appropriations out of Congress fast enough. They  
have electrical work and some crew quarters work left. They'll be  
training as they go, unfortunately."

"That will have to do," Legrand said sagely.  Then smiled.  "I'm sure  
I can find some funding which could speed the effort in some dark  
corner.  And I'm sure some other nations in Europe would be willing."

"Ah, the dark corners of the budget process. Such disturbing  
memories." Williams laughed, as the screen went out of focus for a  
second. "Luke, the mouse is not a chew toy." A baby's face suddenly  
filled the screen as Luke tried to gnaw on the camera, before the  
President pulled him back and walked off. "There, safely in his  
playpen with -his- toys."

Legrand laughed.  He had to take off his glasses to wipe a tear of  
laughter from his eye.

"My own Samuel, the great Computer Scientist," Legrand said jovially  
and with a hint of mockery, "would be ashamed to know his first  
experience with a computer quite ruined the keyboard.  It was,  
perhaps, still usable but the smell was something which could not be  
overcome."

John laughed at that. "Don't give Luke any ideas!" he warned. "He gets  
enough from Uncle Iulius!" Who definitely enjoyed his friend's  
occasional haplessness before his son's machinations.

"I am sure," Legrand said, coming back to the matters at hand.  "In  
any case, I will try to work something out with regards to the missile  
defense funds by the time Secretary Hill arrives here.  I assume that  
military planning is most conveniently routed through SHAPE?  I will  
instruct those officers inserted there to cooperate fully with SACEUR,  
and will have additional officers sent to more effectively coordinate  
our planning with NATO's central planning."

"Yes...Have you given thought to just reintegrating completely with  
the aliance?" Williams asked.

"We shall see how this war goes before thinking about how to fight the  
next one," Legrand said non-commitally.  He wasn't about to be drawn  
into a discussion on the issue.  At the same time, he wasn't going to  
deny the prospect that this conflict could greatly change France's  
feelings towards NATO.

"Fair enough." Williams replied, nodding sagely.

Legrand nodded.

"Then, perhaps, with some bare agreement," Legrand said, "I will let  
you get back to making sure that...  Luke, was it not?  Making sure  
that Luke does not make your keyboard smell as my Samuel made mine  
smell so many years ago."

Williams smiled. "Nah, I changed him before the call." Pause.  
"Hopefully, we can meet face to face in better circumstances."

"That would be nice, Mr. President," Legrand said pleasantly.  "Then I  
will take my leave.  Have a good..."  Legrand calculated for a  
moment.  "Have a good morning and a good day Mr. President."

"Have a good night, Mr. President." Williams replied, before the  
connection cut to the NATO Star and a CONNECTION TERMINATED message.

Pierre Legrand sat back thinking over the conversation.  He then  
shrugged, that great Gallic pastime.  Standing he noticed an aide  
standing by the door as if he were one of his children when they had  
been young and badly needing to use a restroom.  Just beyond the aide,  
a general was standing more patiently but still with some degree of  
restlessness.  Legrand shook his head to himself before striding out  
of the smaller room.

The aide immediately began giving a frantic report, and the general  
stood to attention.  Legrand listened amusedly.  He would probably  
spend the next hour or so wandering around, helping to make sure that  
the right decisions were being made.  He himself didn't need to make  
them, not these.  There could be no major decisions until the major  
problems made themselves clear.  So, he did his best not to worry, and  
to alleviate the worries of others.  His own worries would come soon  
enough.


ACTIONS:

1)  The US evacuates its citizens, and France's citizens catch a ride.

2)  France approaches the Russians about the crisis, and quietly  
brings up the possibility that if it becomes necessary to evict the  
Iranians by force, Russian cooperation would be very helpful, even if  
such cooperation amounted to simply basing in and transiting through  
Russian territory.

3)  Also, very quietly, France approaches Georgia as a just-in-case.

4)  France approaches Azerbaijan and Armenia about defending against  
the Iranian invasion.  Particularly begin probing them on their asking  
for outside assistance.

5)  France agrees to help (read contribute money to) bring the Eastern  
European US missile defense sites online.  Legrand will scrounge up  
the money, post-haste, somehow.

6)  The US and France reach an understanding that should the use of  
force become necessary, NATO will have the lead and will begin  
planning for the various eventualities.  Needless to say, France  
boosts its presence inside SHAPE immediately.

7)  The US Secretary of State will be coming to Paris to help begin  
the process of building an international (and in particular NATO)  
consensus and response.