[War] France: A Change in the Agenda, Episode II: Attack of the Terrorists

[Daniel Garcia]

"France:  A Change in the Agenda, Episode II:  Attack of the Terrorists"
President Pierre Legrand, French Republic
April 19, 2008

(OOC:  I almost appended a title last time, but in light of my giving  
this post a title, I hereby declared the previous post to be:  "A  
Change in the Agenda, Episode I:  The Phantom Revolt"!  And I will now  
hide before someone comes to kill me...)

"So now what," Gautier Tessier, Prime Minister of France, said testily  
as he came into the room.  Legrand and Minister of Foreign Affairs  
Renaud Perroy were there waiting, and had evidently been chatting  
idly.  Gautier knew Legrand was a hard working man, and he showed that  
on several occasions.  But other times, Legrand dropped any pretense  
of doing any work, and would chat or tell stories.  Legrand had once  
explained that it was part of his managerial style.  Gautier was,  
understandably, dubious.

"The Russian Minister of Defense has been assassinated in Moscow,"  
Legrand said evenly.  He was clearly unhappy at this turn of events.   
There was, Gautier realized upon reflection a definite sense that  
things in the Caucasus were spiraling out of anybody's control.

"Any clue on who it was," Gautier said, sitting down.  Or, more  
accurately, falling down into a chair.

"No, things are too chaotic at the moment," Renaud said.  Then, as if  
to belie that statement, "Both in Moscow and the Caucasus."

"You think the two situations are related," Gautier said.  It was,  
perhaps an obvious inference, but that which was obvious is not always  
true.  And besides, the implications of the events in the east were  
becoming increasingly disconcerting.

"That the various restive parts of the Caucasus should erupt in revolt  
at the same time with apparently no connecting issue is unlikely, yet  
still plausible," Legrand pointed out.  "That only days later the  
Russian Minister of Defense, under escort, should be assassinated  
decreases the odds that these events are unrelated substantially.   
Moreover, an assassination like this I imagine takes some time and  
careful planning and preparation to succeed.  Two days would not have  
been enough.

"My daughter Anastasie," Legrand continued, "once tried to explain to  
me something of the theory of relativity.  It was more or less lost on  
me, but one thing I do remember was that she said that two events  
widely separated in distance but in close succession in time could not  
be related.  Neither event could cause the other, no matter what you  
tried to do.  But both events could have the same cause, if that cause  
took place sufficiently far in the past.  That's what she said  
causality was."

"Then the question is what event triggered all this," Gautier said.   
Legrand shrugged ruefully.

"Gautier, have the French intelligence services begin looking into  
events," Legrand said carefully.  "We should begin taking this more  
seriously."

"Perhaps we should liaise with the other European governments on  
this.  And the Russians," Renaud suggested.  Legrand thought it over,  
then shook his head.

"No, for the moment we'll keep this to ourselves.  If approached, be  
honest," Legrand said.  "Otherwise, we'll await events."

"It's never a good idea to wait for events," Gautier said gruffly.

"And yet, that is all that we can do for now," Legrand pointed out.   
Gautier didn't like that much, but nodded.  The room was silent  
thereafter.

"We should send our condolences to the Russian government and the late  
Minister's family," Renaud finally pointed out.

"Yes," Legrand said, nodding slowly.  "More discretely we should point  
out our concern to the Russians, and see if there's anything we can't  
do."

"You think we should involve ourselves in this," Gautier said  
dubiously.  Legrand shook his head.

"I'm not sure that we should, but I think we'll be involved anyway,"  
Legrand said sadly.


ACTIONS:

1)  Express condolences to the Russian government and Minister  
Yoselev's family on the apparent assassination of Defense Minister  
Gregor Yoselev.

2)  Ask the Russian government if, in light of recent events, there is  
anything the French government might do to assist in the Caucasus in  
the short term at least.  The French government is concerned.

3)  Have French intelligence begin digging around.  Something's rotten  
in the state of Denmar...  er...  the Caucasus!