[War] Nigeria 2014

[lee.tarnow at utoronto.ca]

Nigeria 2014

Political:
Despite a highly controversial campaign, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua won the  
2007 presidential election handily with 70% of the vote. Under
criticism from international observers, and after having the results  
rejected by the two primary opposition parties, Yar'Adua proposed a
national unity government. In June of 2007, the All Nigeria People's  
Party (ANPP), his main rivals, and the Progressive Peoples Alliance
(PPA) agreed to join the People's Democratic Party (PDP) government.  
He would later declare his assets. This disclosure, which fulfilled a
pre-election promise that Yar'Adua made, was intended to set an  
example for other Nigerian politicians and to discourage corruption.

Yar'Adua quickly earned the nickname of 'Baba-go-slow' because of his  
ineffective, laissez-faire governance. Progress was slow through 2008.
Steps were taken to fight corruption, but powerful people in  
government still interfered with business to benefit their own  
interests,
damaging Nigeria's economy. Yar'Adua tried to negotiate with the MEND  
militants through 2011, but was ineffective in dealing with them.
Attacks in the Niger Delta region continued. As well, Yar'Adua failed  
to address the issue of the nation's power supply.

However, the economy grew by 41% between 2007 and 2011, and the  
general population recognized this. Though slow, it was progress, and  
the
country was moving forward. In the first fair elections in years,  
Yar'Adua won a second term with 45% of the vote (the ANPP and PPA split
40% of the vote, the Action Congress (AC) and Democratic Peoples Party  
(DPP) split 10% of the vote, while the remaining 5% of the vote was
split among smaller parties) and 172 of a possible 360 seats, forming  
a minority government with 9 independants.

A similar style of governance was adopted from 2011 to 2014, with  
slightly better results. Power generation improved to 45 280 MW, about
41% of the Nigeria's target production. In response to escalating MEND  
attacks in the Niger Delta region, a state of emergency was called,
and a brutal yet effective military crackdown occurred in June 2013.  
MEND violence has since disappeared, however serious human rights
abuses, including politically motivated killings; the use of lethal  
force against suspected criminals and hostage-seizing militants;
beatings and even torture of suspects, detainees, and convicts; and  
extortion of civilians was reported.

Yar'Adua's health failed him in late 2013, and Vice President Goodluck  
Jonathan ascended to the presidency. The government lost a vote of
non-confidence in early 2014, and the timid Jonathan seems to indicate  
a wide open election in 2014.

Economic:

Oil-rich Nigeria, long hobbled by political instability, corruption,  
inadequate infrastructure, and poor macroeconomic management,
undertook reforms under Yar'Adua.  Nigeria's economy grew 75% from  
2007 to 2014. The GDP stands at over $500 billion, 15% by agriculture,
55% by industry, and 30% by services. The labor force stands at 57.5  
million, with an unemployment rate of 5%. Recent finds in the
hydrocarbon rich Niger Delta place proven natural gas reserves at  
nearly 6 trillion cu m, and proven oil reserves of over 45 billion bbl.
The country is listed among the ?Next Eleven? economies, and is one of  
the fastest growing in the world with the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) projecting growth of 9.3% in 2014 and 8.7% in 2015.

Military:
The Military of Nigeria has active duty personnel in three armed  
services, totalling approximately 98,000 troops and 94,000 paramilitary
personnel. Nigeria has continued a strict policy of diversification in  
military procurement from various countries. Before the lifting of
sanctions by many Western nations, Nigeria turned to the People's  
Republic of China, Russia, North Korea, and India for the purchase of
military equipment and training. The end of PDP governance in Nigeria  
may bring a shift in policy, and therefore,
this may not reflect future armament.

Foreign:
Since independence, Nigerian foreign policy has been characterized by  
a focus on Africa and by attachment to several fundamental principles:
African unity and independence; peaceful settlement of disputes;  
nonalignment and nonintentional interference in the internal affairs of
other nations; and regional economic cooperation and development. In  
pursuing the goal of regional economic cooperation and development,
Nigeria helped create the Economic Community of West African States  
(ECOWAS), which seeks to harmonize trade and investment practices for
its 15 West African member countries and ultimately to achieve a full  
customs union. Over the past decade, Nigeria has played a pivotal
role in the support of peace in Africa. It provided the bulk of troops  
for the UN peacekeeping mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL), the UN
Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), and the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS).

Social:
Nigeria's current political parties are pan-national and irreligious  
in character (though this does not preclude the continuing preeminence
of the dominant ethnicities). Nigeria's three largest ethnic groups  
have maintained historical preeminence in Nigerian politics; competition
amongst these three groups, the Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo has fuelled  
corruption and graft.

There are approximately 81 million Muslims in Nigeria, 65 million  
Christians, and 15 million proponents of other religions. The country
should be seen as having a predominantly Muslim north, a mixed  
Christian and Muslim Southwest and a non-Muslim, primarily Christian  
South
East and South-South, with each as a minority faith in the other's region.

There are four distinct systems of law in Nigeria: English law, common  
law, customary law, and Sharia law. Sharia law is used only in the
predominantly Muslim north of the country.