[War] Russia: "The Strategic Balance"

[Michael Downey]

"The Strategic Balance"
President Leonid Nemerenko
Russian Federation
7 January 2014
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Andrei Yoselev was a man that had lived almost his entire adult life
in the armed forces. His impressive record had been what prompted
President Nemerenko to make the man Chief of the General Staff when he
had taken office. And when Defence Minister Lentulov had retired to a
nice dacha outside Tula, Yoselev had been Nemerenko's first choice as
a replacement. How appreciative Yoselev was at this honor was dubious.
At Nemerenko's insistence, Yoselev had formally retired from the Army
and traded in his officer's uniform for a business suit, something
that the man was quite unused to given how Yoselev constantly pulled
and adjusted his tie as the group sat around the conference table.

Then there was Yoselev's own replacement as Chief of the General
Staff, Colonel-General Amir Rezakaev, now a full four-star. Rezakaev,
also an Army man, was the former head of the Far East forces and their
most senior field commander. He was half-Kazakh on his father's side
but had not been brought up in the Muslim faith as it had been
unfashionable to be of any sort of religious persuasion, Muslim in
particular though, under the Soviet regime of the time.

"Our nuclear arsenal are the family jewels of Russia," began Yoselev.
"Our greatest, and probably only positive, inheritance from the
Soviets. No one has as many warheads as we do. Not the Europeans, the
Chinese or the Amerikanskiis. No matter how large, advanced or
well-trained our conventional assets are, it will always be the
Strategic Rocket Forces that will act as the first and last line of
defence against invasion by a hostile power, be it China or NATO."

"But there are issues with the SRF that need to be addressed,"
interjected Rezakaev. Yoselev frowned, not taking too kindly to the
General interrupting him but held his tongue. "Moral among the men and
officers is no longer an issue. Thanks to the Initiative 18 plan
introduced last year all men in all branches of the military are
getting regular pay and benefits on par with that of their Western
contemporaries. In fact, our soldiers are probably better looked after
now than they have ever been in our history. The problem with the SRF
is that many of our ICBMs are reaching the end of their service life,
general maintenance issues with silos and storage sites, and our
command and control system being a bit dated."

"And the SRF would like added security at all missile bases and mobile
units," continued the Defence Minister. "We want to harden all our
facilities against the possibility of a terrorist attack. The last
thing we need is some madmen launching one of our ICBMs at Boston and
starting World War Three."

As far as Nemerenko knew, and being President he knew a great deal of
things some of which he would rather not, there had never been a
terrorist attack on a missile base. Not that he disagreed with
Minister or Chief that it was a wise precaution. Better safe than a
cloud of radioactive vapor.

"Alright, outline me your proposal."

"A full security company added to the existing details of every
facility and mobile unit," explained Yoselev. "Plus a review of all
current personnel at every facility by the GRU. Background checks,
psychological evaluations, that sort of thing. Each facility will have
its computer systems upgraded to latest spec, repairs to unmaintained
and dilapidated buildings and equipment. That it to be completed in
one to two years."

"We also want to begin designing and implementing an new national C3
system for strategic command of the nuclear forces," said Rezakaev.
"The existing system was built in the 1980's and is probably quite
dated in comparison to the systems being used by the Americans and
Chinese. A more modern system would allow faster response time, better
safety oversight and better coordination. Upon approval from the
Assembly we'd like to have the system online in three years."

Nemerenko nodded. "Alright, I'll agree to all of those proposals. You
also mentioned upgrading our missile inventory?"

"We want to begin replacing all missiles currently in service with our
mobile divisions with the Topol-M design. It was a process started by
the SRF in the early 2000s but ran into funding snags," explained
Yoselev. There was something in Yoselev and Rezakaev's faces that made
Nemerenko become more suspicious.

"What about our silo units?"

"For those we want to begin production of the RS-24  design," answered
the Defence Minister.

The President frowned. "If I recall correctly, the RS-24 was designed
specifically to penetrate missile defense shields. Don't you gentlemen
think that will provoke our American friends?" Of course they knew, it
was a rhetorical question. As they correctly viewed Russia's nuclear
arsenal as the most important aspect of national defence they shared
that lingering fear that a NMD system deployed by the United States at
home and in Europe would kneecap that strategy. Nemerenko for his part
felt the NMD idea was a pipe dream. Bush and Richardson had never made
any meaningful progress on it and Williams hadn't even shown any signs
of interest.

"Comrade President, the Americans are the ones that violated the ABM
Treaty," pointed out Yoselev. "What's the point of nuclear weapons if
they aren't a credible threat?"

"FIrst they didn't violate the treaty, they used an agreed upon escape
clause," corrected Nemerenko. "Second, they agreed to appease us by
signing SORT, a gesture we accepted. Third, the whole idea of the NMD
shield is to protect the US against a small number of missiles fired
by rogue states like North Korea or Iran. I've looked at the reports.
There is no existing or foreseeable NMD technology that could hope to
swat away the sheer number of missiles we could launch. NMD is not
something we have to worry about."

"With respect sir, we must always be prepared for any eventuality,"
noted Rezakaev. "Especially in this area."

"Relations with the United States are at an all-time high," countered
Nemerenko. "Free trade, technical assistance for our security and
militia forces, even military cooperation. Did you yourself not
comment on how beneficial our training exercise with the US Army was
last year? I don't want to compromise our growing alliance by
comparing the size of our..... missiles. I will agree to have the
Topol-M mass-produced to replace all of our existing ICBMs. What is
your projected time frame?"

"Fifteen percent of the inventory a year for seven years," answered
Rezakaev. "And if we cannot implement the RS-24, can we at least
introduce guidance upgrades to the Topol-M before mass production
begins?"

"Done," said Nemerenko. "I will have the Prime Minister ply the
Assembly for the funding. Thank you for your time, gentlemen."
---

Actions:
1) Increase security at all mobile units and silo bases of the
Strategic Rocket Forces to harden them against potential terrorist
attacks.
2) Introduce better screening, background checks and psychological
evaluations of SRF personnel.
3) Conduct general maintenance and upgrades at all SRF bases and silos.
4) Begin work on a new, more modern C3 system for the SRF, to be
finished in three years.
5) Introduce an upgraded version of the Topol-M ICBM to replace all
missiles in the current inventory, to be completed within seven years.