[War] Russia: "Suspicion of Intent"

[Michael Downey]

"Suspicion of Intent"
President Leonid Nemerenko,
Russian Federation
6 February 2014
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Machiavelli had advocated that a state be based upon to concepts: the
rule of law and a strong military. Both were important but a ruler
should always tend to the military first because if the rule of law
failed then he could utilize his army to restore it. But if the army
failed, the realm was doomed.

And with the longest border in the world and numerous hot spots
fairing all along it, not to mention being sandwiched in between the
powerful NATO bloc to the West and PRC to the East (which would always
be uncomfortable, regardless of whatever pieces of paper were inked
with pledges of non-aggression) it was suitably prudent for the
Kremlin to take careful steps to restore and maintain Russia's
military strength and address all military concerns with due
diligence.

"With the addition of EU peacekeepers into the Abkhazia zone, we can
expect a gradual stabilization to a fully peaceful status," reported
Defence Minister Yoselev. "There has been some negative reaction to
our decision to remand the future of the region to multiparty talks
and cease our support for Abkhazia's de facto independence, but
nothing more than some stones thrown at our troops. No violence and no
injuries."

"See to it that our own soldiers do not inflict any injures," warned
the President. Russia was more skilled at occupation than peacekeeping
and he did not want to see Abkhazian civilians being beaten or shot by
Russian Army soldiers.

"We must remember that we have permanently committed ourselves to this
endeavour of peaceful reconciliation," spoke up FM Denemetov. "It is
absolutely out of the question to simply pick up and leave if Abkhazia
becomes violent, especially now that the EU had agreed to contribute
to our peacekeeping mission. It would make us loses a tremendous
amount of face on the world stage and earn us the ire of the Western
Europeans for leaving them holding the bag."

"Our forces have been entrenched in that area for several years and we
know who to keep an eye on," assured Yoselev. "I'm not saying there
won't be violence but if there is I am sure our military forces can
respond with haste and eliminate the instigators before any serious
flare-ups can occur."

"The talks at the Hague?" asked the President.

"Only starting," said Denemetov. "The Netherlands agreeing to help us
mediate adds credibility to the conference. Georgia has been
completely willing to attend by the Abkhazian delegation has come only
at considerable insistence at our part. Abkhazia will cooperate
insofar as they have no choice."

"They relied upon us to throw the Georgians out, to keep them out, and
to keep their economy afloat," mused Nemerenko. "In the end Abkhazia
is a small and insignificant speck of land with only limited strategic
value. Georgia is much more useful to us in a reconciled fashion and
by acting so benignly we can curry respect and an easing of tensions
with the EU."
"That brings us to the ongoing problems in North Korea," jumped in
Yoselev. "The Chinese have responded adequately but the speed and
scale of the violence leads us to conclude that this is a highly
organized and well-armed resistance group, not ragged insurgents as
seen in Iraq."

"Are you suggesting an external  source of support?" asked Denemetov.

"It is entirely possible. The KPA devoted a considerable amount of
resources into training their SF detachments and kept them relatively
well-funded and supplies, by North Korean standards at least. An early
outbreak of coordinated resistance to the Chinese military would not
have been too unusual but this wave of violence has occurred almost on
year after the fact. By now the PLA has secured all former KPA
military instillations, armoires and impressed the bulk of the former
KPA into the new national military force. So, an exterior source of
support is likely."

Nemerenko closed his eyes. He'd washed his hands politically of North
Korea but was still dogged by the spectre of the state collapsing. Not
that they were at that point yet, but it still worries him. The
prospect of a foreign power supporting the North Korean resistence
added a factor of foreign aggression against China that could provoke
an international crisis.

"Do we have suspects?" he asked.

 "At first we thought the Americans but the GRU has concluded that
they are likely not responsible," said the Defence Minister. "They
have been too quiet over this whole state of affairs. No official
press releases from either the White House, Department of State or
Defence Department. There has been some agitation in Congress but that
is not reflective of the Williams Administration."

"An unstable North Korea does keep China occupied and drain their
military strength," pointed out Denemetov. "That is motive. It worked
against us in Afghanistan."

"True," agreed Yoselev. "But think of the physical differences. It was
easy for the Americans to supply and support the Afghan rebels through
numerous land access routes. North Korea is highly isolated. It only
borders the South, China and us. Our border is miniscule and at the
moment heavily fortified. We obviously have no part in this and I can
assure you no illegal arms are flowing in from our territory. How
would the Americans physically get any supplies to the North Korea
insurgents? The Chinese would immediately detect any shore landings by
the US Navy."

"Then who?"

"Japan shares our quiet approval of a *successful* Chinese occupation
for purposes of regional stability," continued Yoselev. "That leaves
only South Korea. Beijing has made it clear that so long as they rule
North Korea, there will never be a reunification of the two nations.
This had absolutely incensed the South Koreans and gives them
considerable motive to support a resistance to Chinese rule. If the
situation were to grow too far out of hand and the Chinese were to
withdraw or at least ask for international assistance, it would be a
convenient window for the ROK to move in. They have had years to makes
contacts and develop smuggling stratagems for just such a purpose."

"And what does the GRU say?" questioned the President.

"Again, information is limited," admitted Yoselev. "Neither the old
KGB or the SVR and GRU have been able to develop much of an espionage
apparatus in either Koreas. All we have is suspicions based on ability
and motive, no hard fact."

"Then we have no choice but to continue on and hope that the new
security measures being implemented by the PLA are effective in
quelling the violence," said Nemerenko. You could never truly make a
country a totally obedient puppet. There would always be resistance,
both from those who openly despise you and those who claim to be
collaborators. The Soviets had learned that the hard way on numerous
occasions and now it seemed China would as well. He knew in his heart
that the Chinese would never leave North Korea, just as the Soviets
had never really left Eastern Europe after the end of the Great
Patriotic War. And while he had no moral qualms about that, the fear
of instability concerned him.

"Ensure that security at our medical camps is strong enough to prevent
any violence there," he instructed Yoselev. "And begin making
preparations to close them and withdraw our aid workers should that
indeed occur. Coordinate with the Chinese on the former but do not
inform them of the latter." The current administration in Beijing was
very paranoid, even by Russian standards, and incessantly
confrontational. The last thing he needed was giving them an excuse to
antagonize Russia yet again. "That's everything, thank you both." The
LCD screen with the dual images of Denemetov, currently in the Hague,
and Yoselev over at the MOD dimmed and went black.
---

Actions:
1) Continue to support a peaceful reconciliation by Abkhazia and
Georgia and encourage the discussions at the Hague.
2) Ensure that Russian soldiers in Abkhazia behave properly.
3) Coordinate with Chinese authorities to increase security at the
Russian medical camps in North Korea
4) Quietly make plans to close the camps and withdraw all Russian
personnel should the camps be subject to violence.