[War] France: A Change in the Agenda, Episode I

[Daniel Garcia]

"France:  A Change in the Agenda, Episode I"
President Pierre Legrand, French Republic
April 17, 2014


"Thank you," Pierre Legrand said with a smile as the attendant  
departed.  Legrand carried the tray of refreshments the attendant had  
brought over to the table where he, his caretaker Prime Minister,  
Gautier Tessier, and his caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs, Renaud  
Perroy, were sitting.  Gautier, a stout man of average build was a  
career politician, and a long time friend of Pierre's.  He had briefly  
worked in the first Legrand administration as Minister of Agriculture,  
Food, Fishing and Rural Affairs before leaving once the nature of the  
administration became apparent.  Renaud was an average man in every  
category of appearance, but had spent many years in the French foreign  
service, stationed at many embassies around the world before entering  
politics.  He was also the oldest man in Legrand's Council of Ministers.

"Then, on to business," Legrand said when seated.  "So, where exactly  
has the Ampère government left us with respect to the Korean crisis?"

"Nowhere and no place," Renaud said.  "France has made the meekest of  
statements of encouragement for finding a solution, and little else.   
By the time the Vladivostok Conference collapsed, the government was  
in too much trouble to do anything worth doing or saying.  Basically,  
the French government has been in a state of barely ordered chaos for  
the past month."

"I'm spending all my time sorting out feuds that began under Ampére,"  
Gautier said disgustedly.  "Thank you very much, Pierre, for putting  
me in charge of that mess."

Legrand smiled and bowed his head slightly to his old friend.  "Who  
else could I choose?  And besides, you're well accomplished in dealing  
with political infighting, more so than I.  And I've largely given you  
a carte blanche with which to sort things out."

Gautier nodded.  He had called Legrand that morning to vent about some  
issue between the Ministries of Agriculture, Food, Fishing and Rural  
Affairs and of the Environment and Sustainable Development.  Legrand  
had listen patiently, and had said, "That sounds pretty awful.  But  
it's not my fault, and complaining won't put an end to it."  Gautier,  
soothed slightly, agreed and went back to work.  Legrand had an  
uncanny way of soothing others and sending them right along to do what  
they were or should be doing.

"In any case," Legrand continued, "that means that we have complete  
freedom to act.  Of course, that means we have complete freedom to act."

"I don't see that there is much for us to do," Renaud said, with a dim  
smile at Legrand's phrasing of the issue.  "I don't think there is  
much we can do.  One, East Asia is a long way from here.  Two, it's  
not clear that there's anything we should be doing.  The Chinese have  
North Korea.  Unless they drastically change their minds, or a war  
starts, they're likely to keep it.  We have nothing to do."

"And yet there are consequences.  The world is much smaller than it  
used to be," Pierre pointed out gravely.

"The CAC 40 is down significantly over the past several weeks.  And  
it's not just our domestic problems," Gautier pointed out.  "The  
insistence of the Americans on toeing a tough line on trade and such  
matters has rattled financial markets.  And with the hope of a  
negotiated settlement out the window, things look like they'll be  
getting worse before getting better."

"So we need to do something, if only to act to reassure the markets,"  
Legrand said, leaning back in thought.  "If we urge restraint on the  
Americans, how will they react?"

"It's hard to tell," Renaud admitted.  "President Williams' recent  
incapacity due to exhaustion could be look upon in several different  
ways.  Certainly, Williams seemed to, shall I say, take on strong  
positions and believe in them strongly.  Possibly it was a factor in  
his becoming over stressed.  That may mean that he is, on doctor's  
orders, willing to take a softer approach.  Or not.  It is very  
complicated, and hard to tell."

"Then we should act according to our own lights," Legrand said.  "Have  
our ambassador in Washington urge the Americans to moderate their  
course, unless they have some miracle idea to change the situation for  
the better.  Let them know our concerns about the markets and how all  
this is hurting the global economy.  We are with them, but we have  
doubts about the way things are going."

"And what about the Chinese," Gautier said.  "They're not very popular  
here at the moment."

"I doubt there is much we can do," Renaud said.  Legrand nodded in  
agreement.

"But, we must do something, even if we are doomed to fail," Legrand  
said, standing and walking to a window.  "Have our ambassador in  
Beijing urge them to keep talking.  If they try to blame everything on  
the Americans, point out that it requires more courage to continue to  
talk in the face of stubbornness than to give up.  Also point out  
that, despite all of the Americans' actions, they plausibly went to  
Vladivostok to talk.  If strong words were expressed by both sides, it  
was the Chinese who left the Conference without attempting to  
negotiate."

"At best they'll just dismiss that," Renaud pointed out.  "At worst  
they'll be angry with us."

"Well, we have low expectations, so we won't be very disappointed,"  
Legrand said.  "We should also make clear in public that we stand by  
the United States, even if we disagree about how to approach the  
situation.  The Chinese are, after all, in occupation of territory not  
their own with no mandate from the United Nations, and no invitation  
from the nation whom they are occupying."

Legrand turned to the other men.  He shrugged in a most gallic fashion  
with a slight grin.

"What do you do when the world decides to go crazy," he said.  At that  
moment there was a knock at the door, after which Legrand's secretary  
peeked in.

"Mr. President, Minister of Defense Commandeur is here.  Something has  
happened in Chechnya," she said.  Legrand walked with a quick yet not  
rushed gait to the door, opening it wide.

"Jean-Baptiste, come in," Legrand said to the burly Minister.  "What  
has happened?"

Once the door was once again closed and everyone seated, Jean-Baptiste  
opened the briefcase he had with him and laid out some of the contents  
on the table.  He looked to the other men with a stern look.

"Early this morning, in Chechnya, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia armed  
groups of unknown, but probably separatist, affiliation attacked  
targets throughout the region," he began.  "The violence has been  
widespread and quite deadly."

"What sort of casualties are we talking about here," Gautier asked.

"It's hard to say right now.  Dozens.  Hundreds perhaps," Jean- 
Baptiste said, picking one particular report to glance at before  
continuing.  "More worryingly, these haven't been just terrorist  
attacks.  Most of the targets have been strictly military, and the  
Russian army has taken several hard blows."

"They're attacking the military," Legrand said in surprise, catching  
the meaning immediately.  "This is a full blown campaign, then?  The  
Chechnyans are trying to force the Russians out?"

It was one thing for there to be terrorist attacks against civilians.   
Those would come and go, and not necessarily affect the stability of  
the wider region.  But if this were a full scale rebellion, then there  
were likely to be ripple effects throughout the Caucasus.  Then,  
Renaud had a thought.

"Did you say that there were also attacks into Abkhazia and South  
Ossetia?  In Georgia," Renaud asked surprised.

"Yes," Jean-Baptiste nodded.  "We even have sketchy reports of an  
attack across the Abkhazia border into a portion of Georgia under the  
government's control."

"There are EU peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia," Renaud  
said, stunned.  This wasn't just a conflict in another far flung  
corner of the world.  Europe was involved from the get go.  Jean- 
Baptiste spoke up before anyone could ask the inevitable follow up  
question.

"There are no French troops in the region," he said.  "Things around  
here have been too chaotic.  The Council of Ministers couldn't agree  
on whether or not French troops should be sent, so none were.   
Discussions had started a few days ago about sending troops, probably  
when troops already there needed to be rotated out, but all that is by  
the wayside now."

"That still leaves us with a big problem," Gautier observed.  That  
there would be no coffins draped with the tricolor was a relief to all  
involved.  Legrand had, after all, only been acting President for a  
week, and having to deal with dead soldiers was not how he wanted to  
spend his Presidency.

"I think it's safe to assume that the ongoing discussions on the  
future of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are off," Renaud said.  "How bad  
is it?"

"Well," Jean-Baptiste inhaled.  "It's hard to say.  Perhaps things  
will return to normal on their own, or the Russians and the EU forces  
already on the ground will be able to return things to normal  
quickly.  It's too early.  We don't even know why this has happened."

"Or why it's happened all at once," Legrand offered.  "After all, the  
conflicts in Chechnya and in Georgia aren't very closely related.   
Perhaps Abkhazia and South Ossetia have reason to rise up, as if I  
recall the people in charge of the breakaway governments were not very  
happy at EU involvement or in the prospect of a negotiated settlement."

"They felt they were abandoned by the Russians," Renaud interjected.   
Legrand nodded.

"But the Chechnyans had been pacified one way or another.  Perhaps I  
am not very familiar with the region, but why all at once," Legrand  
asked, brow furrowed.  The statement hung there for a minute.

"Mr. President," Jean-Baptiste began, "I'd like permission to begin  
planning to send in French forces to reinforce the European missions  
in the Caucasus.  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should also open  
discussions along these lines."

"That sounds good," Legrand nodded.  Renaud looked slightly peeved at  
Jean-Baptiste edging in on his own area of responsibility.  Legrand  
smiled gently.  "Renaud, open discussions with the rest of the EU.   
And with the Russians.  Try to get everyone to share what information  
they have, and see what we can do.  Also, we should probably make a  
statement condemning the violence, for all the good it is likely to do."

Legrand stood up.  With that, the meeting began to disperse, with  
Renaud rushing off to get the diplomatic side of things moving.   
Before he got very far, Legrand turned and called to him.

"Renaud, don't forget Korea," he said.  As he did, he realized that  
possibly that it would be hard to remember the other crisis if events  
in the Caucasus went the way they seemed to be going.  Then, Legrand  
walked to Jean-Baptiste and put his hand on the shorter man's  
shoulder.  "Please keep me and Gautier informed of developments.   
And..."

Legrand paused here for a few moments before continuing.  "If things  
get out of hand, and we need to send troops, how many casualties might  
we suffer?"

The question was quiet, soft, and discrete.  Jean-Baptiste paused as  
he considered.  "There's no way to tell at this point."

Jean-Baptiste then continued his preparations to leave, and Legrand  
stepped back, hands in his pockets, and deep in thought.  His face was  
largely blank though his wrinkles seemed a bit more prominent.  His  
face softened after a few moments, as he and Gautier stood together  
near the door, looking after the other two men.  Then, they looked at  
each other, reading each other's thoughts.


ACTIONS:

1)  Urge the US to moderate their course somewhat.  France is  
concerned about the economics, and nothing seems to be budging the  
Chinese.

2)  Urge the Chinese to budge on North Korea.  Ask them to keep talking.

3)  France will monitor developments in the Caucasus and begin  
planning to move troops into the region if need be.  France will also  
urge information sharing between the EU and Russia on the issue.

4)  France condemns the armed outbreak in the Caucasus, urging a quick  
return of order and, in the case of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a  
return to negotiations.

(OOC:  Note that these events take place five days before the Iranian  
invasion.  Thus, it doesn't come up yet.)