[War] Germany: "Fuelling speculation"

[Michael Brittain]

Germany: "Fuelling speculation"
Chancellor Lukas Lehman
April 2nd 2013
------------------------------

Politics was a tiring, often vicious occupation. The list of
occupational hazards mounted every day, and for the figurehead of the German
government, Lukas was a target for everyone that fancied a shot.

He was a man that in the past had been considered selfish and 'power crazy'
by some disgruntled elements within his party, criticised for his sometimes
'Presidential style' when it came to forcing through his own way. His rush
to the centre ground and repositioning of the SPD pushed the CDU out of
government and into the political wilderness, but cracks in the SPD were
threatening to emerge; particularly over the governments proposed next
budget. The shots were certainly coming in thick and fast.

The Chancellor wanted to freeze spending and create a small surplus for the
end of the financial year. He saw balancing the books of the country and
creating a stable, dynamic economy as his one of his most important targets.
He was accused of losing sight of his left-wing routes, likened to former
Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder. Moderates, his advisors and economists were praising his
tough stance on future budgeting decisions, and understood the need to begin
reducing Germany's debt, but the far left of his party hated the idea of
freezing unemployment payments, an idea recently floated around. Lukas was
playing a very dangerous balancing game with his party, economic sense, the
opposition and the German people. He was bargaining on the proven record of
accomplishment of German sense, efficiency and patience.

The media, although generally positive so far, were hounding him for
answers; he had set aspirations high when he ushered in a majority SPD
government, and was now delicately introducing change.

"A top up?"

Lukas looked up from staring at the crackling fire at the centre of his
living room, to see his wife, Meika, pouring more wine into his empty glass.
He smiled, before returning to the warm glow of the fire. Its heat was
intense, his face beginning to glow slightly red. Loosening his tie further,
he sunk deeper into the chair sipping his third glass of wine.

"Shall I turn the news on Lukas?" Meika sat down on the leather sofa to his
right, his armchair and the sofa in an L-shape with the large TV and fire
the focal points. The living room was quite large. Meika had inherited an
old, antiquated living apartment and considerably updated it. The room
itself was quite tasteful, with wood flooring, large rugs and painted walls,
with the grand fireplace as the main focal point. The working areas of the
Chancellors residence however had been left alone, prestigiously decorated
for the purpose of government.

Lukas nodded his head. "Please." He sat up as Meika pressed the remote, the
relaxation of the fire soon forgotten. Meika smiled at Lukas as she put her
feet up on the sofa. Lukas returned the smile, enjoying the time alone with
his wife, even if his job still crept into the conversation.

The anchorman summarised the main headlines.

"I wouldn't trust that Lukashenko as far as I could throw him, what is he
playing at?" Meika commented on the news report, shaking her head. Although
Lukas's wife, she was an established high court judge and was considerably
intelligent. She was a confidant for Lukas, a strong source of help and
guidance.
She flicked her long auburn hair back and sipped her wine.

Lukas shrugged at his wife's comments. It would have been a surreal
situation to someone looking into the living room of the Lehman's that
night. The Chancellors wife, a citizen and observer freely commented as she
always did over the news. Lukas however, although somewhat reserved to
comment based on a news report, was a man whose opinion would carry far and
wide. After all, he was the Chancellor of Germany.

"You must be concerned by this," Meika paused to sip her wine. In Lukas's
silence she continued. "It threatens not only economic stability, but the
reports of military build up on the border... are worrying" She referred to
the recent
dispute between Belarus and Russia.

Lukas nodded, leaning forward to listen more carefully to the medias take on
the situation. He casually sipped his wine before replying; after all he
wasn't in a meeting, he was relaxing. "We're watching the situation very
closely. If Lukashenko or Nemerenko escalate the situation that could
possibly cause instability in Eastern Europe, then I'll re consider our
position, but for the moment it is a dispute of their own."

Meika shrugged. "You're right, of course," she smiled in his direction.

The news soon changed to the budgeting conflicts the government had been
wrestling with recently. "Turn this up, please." Lukas leant in, sipping his
drink.

...[NEWS REPORTER]... both the SPD and CDU, alongside senior
economists and the EU, would hail a strict budget with a financial surplus.
However, concerns remain that all parties in the Bundestag have issue with.
Some elements in the SPD are lobbying for social security increases,
while the CDU wish to cut back such contributions. All signs though
indicate that the Chancellor will unveil a budget little different to last
years.

... Recent growth figures have been pleasing for the Chancellor and the
government, but Mr Lehman has already been quoted as saying he does not want
to rush into any major spending decisions until economic growth is more
stable, and the capital shortfall is under strict control. It is almost
certain the government will not be ballooning spending in areas such as
social security as some SPD elements want, nor will there be any money for
substantial tax cuts, as the CDU are pushing for. It will though be widely
expected to provide investment for its welfare to work policies, as well as
for proposed education and health reform that the Chancellor committed
himself to during the last election.

... Mr Lehman, who spoke at the European Central Bank before becoming
Chancellor, hinted that Germany should first organise its books, get back in
the black, and reduce market regulation before making radical spending
decisions allowing the economy to strengthen. Little has been mentioned
however of the reform of labour laws that the CDU are calling for, but it is
thought Mr Lehman doesn't wish to split his party with this issue just yet.

... But certainly, we can expect change in market regulation and a small
predicted surplus as well as investment in reform programmes. No tax cuts
are on the table, but nor are massive increases in spending. The countries
growing public debt is also expected to be an important influence.]

The news reporter looked clearly out of breath after having to rush her long
report outside the Chancellery. Holding an umbrella flapping in the wind,
she finished her report with a typical cheesy smile.

Lukas leant back in his seat sipping his wine, feeling quite pleased with
the report. The media responded positively with the information he had fed
them with to help prepare the public for his first budget.

Lukas was a charismatic man, able to easily speak in public and think on his
feet. This
was one of the reasons he won the leadership of the party over the elder
candidates, however his obsession with the media did worry some within his
party. They viewed his attempts to manipulate and control as dangerous.

The next step though would be to bargain with the left of the SPD, promising
no
cuts to social security in exchange for reduced investment to create a
surplus at the end of the year. Once, and only if a surplus had been
achieved, next years budget would be far more open and less restrictive.

"Is Stefan asleep?" Lukas asked, his son still off school ill, pushing
budgeting problems to the back of his mind for one night

Meika nodded. "I'll go check on him."

She began to get up, but Lukas shot up instead. "I'll go," he smiled placing
his hand gently on her shoulder as he walked passed. Although tired having
been up for 18 hours, words probably couldn't describe how committed he was
to his family. He wouldn't pretend it was easy balancing his family life
with his career, not many people would. Lukas's case though was somewhat
different, but when he was at home, he wasn't the Chancellor until the phone
rang; he was a father and a husband.

ACTIONS:
1. Have the foreign office keep an eye on President Lukashenko's demands and
the Russian response.
2. Persuade his party to toe the line with regard to any federal budget that
calls for tighter spending (not cuts though) to create a surplus and bring 
Germany out of
the red.
3. Insist that the government wants eventually to increase investment
considerably, but that it is only possible if the economy and the countries
finances are in good health. Economic sense must prevail.
4. Identify the main targets of any proposed budgets as; no cuts to social
security, reduced borrowing and a small surplus. 



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