[War] USA/France: First Impressions from Across the Ocean

[Daniel Garcia]

"First Impressions from Across the Ocean"
18 February 2013
President John Williams
United States
President Zoé Ampère
France
============================
"Hello, Mr. President," Zoé said.  Not too long ago, speaking to the  
Leader of the Free World (TM) would have been unlikely.  She was a  
bit nervous, still settling into the thought that she too was  
important in the world of international politics.  Her first couple  
of times speaking with world leaders had had a few embarrassing  
moments where her nerves had induced a stammer here, or a pause  
there.  However, as one of the career diplomats from the Ministry of  
Foreign Affairs told her, she was getting better.

"Madam President, good - afternoon, your time, I think," replied  
Williams in flawless French. He was in one of the various dayrooms of  
the White House Residence, idly scratching Gizmo behind the ears as  
the dog rested comfortably in his lap. "I was happy to see I wasn't  
the only one surprised to be holding the office they're holding."

"It was my husband who was the political animal," Zoé admitted.  "I  
just got caught up in a storm, found myself in an... interesting  
position, and did the best I could.  And now look at me."  the last  
statement was said with a hint of jest. "I hope you are doing well,  
Mr. President."

"I am, thanks. And I know -exactly- what you mean. I got pressured  
into being Speaker by a Congress desperate to find a consensus pick,  
then, the President and Vice President-elect both go and die on me. I  
can't count the number of times I've dreamt of waking up, and finding  
out it was all a dream. Sadly, I'm not J.R., and this isn't Dallas,"  
Williams replied. "You're doing well, I hope?"

"Yes, thank you.  From what I can tell, *our* end of the world seems  
pleasantly quiet," she said, referencing events in the Far East.

"And Asia is throwing up interesting new problems, yeah," Williams  
reflected. "Nonetheless, that's more a problem for powers in the  
region like Japan; American intervention without their asking us to  
get involved would be heavy-handed, and even the South Koreans want  
to handle this one quietly," he noted into the secure phone. "Doesn't  
mean we aren't pondering supplying resistance movements, but the  
questions of 'how?', 'who?', and 'how the hell do we do that without  
starting World War III?' have posed issues. On the other hand, nobody  
likes the idea of Chinese troops on the other side of the DMZ. Tokyo  
and Soeul have the lead on this, though, quite rightly.

"Might I ask what the thoughts are in Paris on this situation?"

"While we agree that, necessarily the Japanese and particularly the  
South Koreans should have the lead in approaching the future of what  
appears to be the former North Korea, we are worried about what the  
intentions of the Chinese are with regard to the future of North  
Korea.  Preferably North Korea would become free and democratic,  
either in union with the South or separately.  But letting the  
Chinese stay would not only be wrong, but be a bad precedent.   
Perhaps it would embolden them vis-a-vis Taiwan.  In any case, we  
feel that the international community must at least be involved in  
discussions as to the future of North Korea," Zoé said.

"On the other hand, given developments with regard to the weapons of  
the North Korean army, I don't think we, nor for that matter many  
other countries, have the stomach to enforce any decisions of the  
international community.  The Chinese will argue, with some merit,  
that unless someone else would like to take over security operations  
in North Korea, it's their way or the highway.  If the Chinese put  
their foot down, it will be difficult to accomplish anything.  Of  
course, much of this depends upon how the South Koreans respond."

"The South Koreans, so far as I can tell, are trying to decide  
between covert ops and just sitting it out. Our ambassador and the  
Commander of USFK had to argue very, very strenuously to keep them  
from sending the ROKA screaming North to reunify the Peninsula, to  
hell with the Chinese, but now that that option is off the table,  
they seem torn," Williams noted.

"Hmm," Zoé said, sitting back in Paris.  "I would think, in terms of  
direct action, that at the moment we see what the Chinese intend to  
do, while perhaps making inquiries.  No need to go provoking dragons  
before they've made their intentions known.  What does concern me, in  
the meantime, is the possibility of a mass exodus of military arms  
and materiel from North Korea.  The Chinese have already found much  
missing.  It would be bad to let that many weapons get into dangerous  
hands."

"That would be bad, but my instincts tell me that that is unlikely.  
For one thing, we've had our sats and the Japanese sats watching  
North Korea ever since Kim died. We'd detect sea traffic. Air traffic  
would be detected by either the Chinese or South Korean radars. Land  
traffic has to manage to cross the DMZ undetected - difficult,  
especially with the South Koreans on alert and jumpy - or get past  
750 thousand Chinese troops, *into* China," Williams noted. "My gut  
says that the weapons are going to wind up against the Chinese  
eventually, if someone can get the North Koreans to rise up against  
them and not get caught."

"Perhaps, though whether the Chinese are going to remain long enough  
to present adequate targets is anyone's guess," Zoé said.  "Moreover,  
I'm not quite convinced that North Korea is as boxed up as you say.   
People can be very creative, and the weapons represent a large  
potential profit for people who are likely to be quite poor.  It's  
possible that small boats moving along the shore could be used, or  
through bribery or other influences they could be smuggled across the  
Yalu, and conceivably across the DMZ, depending upon the mood of the  
South Koreans and the creativity of the North Koreans.  I see many  
possibilities, but have little way of knowing which are likely and  
which are not."

"That's the problem," Williams noted. "Because everybody else is  
working off of a similar lack of intel.

"That said, I sense we're going to start going in circles with this  
topic: There are any number of possibilities, but we can't know which  
are truly likely, and there aren't the resources to protect against  
them all."

"True enough," Zoé admitted with what was an almost audible Gallic  
shrug.  "Perhaps there is little we can do in the near term, though  
perhaps it would be wise to return to this issue as soon as the  
situation on the ground clears up and the fate of the North becomes  
clear."

"Agreed. Now, I'm almost certain there's more than just Korea to deal  
with, in any case," Williams noted.

Zoé frowned momentarily, before her train of thought made her smile.   
The American President's abrupt change of direction at first  
irritated her, and then upon reflection amused her.  After all, it  
could be said that it was a typically American thing to do. "It has  
come to my attention that the United States is interested in moving  
forward again with nuclear power.  Perhaps cooperation between our  
two nations on nuclear projects could be arranged," she suggested.

"I'd have to throw it past Congress to get approval, given statutory  
requirements over here, but I can't see that as being too much of a  
problem. Because, well, you're right. It's been nearly 25 years since  
Three-Mile Island; Bush 43 tried to restart nuclear, but people  
weren't ready. Maybe they are now," Williams noted. "In any case,  
you're also looking towards possible replacements for a bunch of your  
reactors, if I recall correctly. Meanwhile, since we both run nuclear  
subs and carriers, we may as well collaborate on designs for those.  
And since we've gone that far, why not on reactor research and design  
generally?" Williams queried.

"That would be amenable.  Certainly your country, when it comes to  
naval nuclear power is second to none, while my country, due to our  
heavy investment in nuclear power, has strengths in waste  
reprocessing," Zoé said.  "Since it sounds like you have something in  
mind, why don't you let me know your thoughts."

"Okay...Basically, to enable wider participation, and because it  
would fit fairly well, I recommend pitching to NATO the establishment  
of what I'll call right now the 'NATO Nuclear Research Organization'.  
My back-of-the-envelope idea has it under the Defence Planning  
Committee, but it could easily live elsewhere. NATO's International  
Staff would provide the administrative backbone; best-of-breed picks  
to staff, for now evenly split between the US and France. If any of  
the other Allies want to throw their chips into the pot and join in,  
they'd be welcome," Williams noted.

"This organization would be responsible for nuclear reactor research  
and design, in four categories: Naval Reactors, Power Production,  
Research and Training, and our most restricted category, Deterrence  
Maintenance. That last category is for the designs meant to produce  
plutonium and other proliferation-risk materials, and most especially  
the materials needed to maintain the US, British, and French nuclear  
forces.

"You're only in if you contribute your share to the organization in  
funding, and exports to non-NATO countries would require the  
agreement of all participating Allies. The organization would own the  
designs, probably, and handle the exports.

"On the US side, DOE, NRC, and the Office of Naval Reactors would  
supply the people to setup and staff the organization."

Zoé sat back for a moment, and thought over what Williams had said.   
The discussion had turned suddenly from bilateral issues to  
multilateral cooperation in the guise of NATO.  There had been rumors  
that the new President was keen on NATO, and this seemed to be  
confirmation.  The problem was Zoé wasn't yet sure how she felt about  
NATO.  Though France had achieved a kind o rapprochement with NATO in  
the early 1990's, France was not yet fully integrated with the  
structures of NATO, due to political and, more recently, domestic  
concerns.  Zoé for a moment debated how to reply, and whether she  
should obfuscate the issue, but that would only cloud Franco-American  
ties and lead to bad feelings.  She decided to be honest.

"I have to admit that I am not necessarily comfortable or convinced  
that NATO would be a proper vehicle for nuclear cooperation.  To be  
honest, France's past and more recent issues with NATO weigh heavily  
upon me.  I do not think that, right now, either France or myself am  
prepared to commit such a large and significant project to NATO  
direction," Zoé said frankly.

"Moreover, I have concerns about mixing technically and popularly  
sensitive nuclear matters with NATO.  Certainly for our two countries  
and Great Britain, this is not so much an issue, but it may be among  
other alliance members, who may object to committing NATO so heavily  
to a nuclear agenda.  Additionally, and more commercially, I have  
concerns about opening participation and, more importantly, ownership  
to all those who might come.  Our two countries, and one or two  
others, have made significant investments in nuclear technology, and  
I think it would be unfavorable to give access to those nations who  
only now choose to jump on the nuclear bandwagon now that our  
technology is available without the expenditure of the money and  
effort that our two countries have made.

"I would propose, at least temporarily, an organization mostly  
independent of NATO, though perhaps under the oversight of one of the  
higher organs of NATO, mostly led by our two countries and perhaps  
Britain, with other nations able to join as strictly lesser  
partners.  In any case, I believe that the United States, Great  
Britain, and France must be securely in the lead of any such effort  
and organization."

"I can see your concerns when it comes to nuclear matters,  
though...Perhaps this is because my original trade before entering  
politics was as a soldier; for American soldiers, these days, NATO is  
sort of part of the identity. Ask a career officer about the US not  
being in NATO, these days, and you'd be looked at like you had two  
heads. I -don't get- France's reluctance in regards to NATO. You - 
tried- going it alone in the Balkans; it failed. The current  
situation always got questions in Congress, even: Why is it France  
had a veto over defense measures when the French weren't in the  
integrated military structure? It seems to them like France gets to  
decide on things it bears no risk from. It was the favorite stick of  
the isolationists on the left -and- the right when I was on the Armed  
Services Committee in the House, and it'd be nice to be able to not  
have to promote US efforts in Europe from a position stronger than  
one that starts out with 'Despite the French anomaly...'," Williams  
replied, a smile on his face. He'd gotten her talkative. This was good.

"But that's a topic for another time. On the nuclear issue itself:

"I can see doing this without Britain, but it would be nice to have  
others to help bear the load, financially and otherwise. Plus, one of  
my issues when I was in Congress was acquisition reform. The more we  
can standardize our acquisitions on defense matters, the better,  
simply because it gives us a much better bargaining position with  
contractors, and drives down costs.

"NATO just seemed like a convenient place to organize the effort  
from, but it can live just as well as a bilateral, trilateral, or  
multilateral structure outside of NATO. The principle, however,  
remains: You aren't in unless you pay your share. And when you -are-  
in, you're in totally. Not just on selected issues.

"When it comes to initial projects: There's the obvious research to  
be done: On Generation IV reactors and on advancement of the  
technology generally. However, I think we also need to put energy  
towards researching methods to mitigate nuclear waste, particularly  
high-level waste. We need something besides disposal...Which,  
frankly, is political hell to try and implement. More specifically,  
though, we need to start researching what will be, in the US, S10 and  
A5 reactors for naval use; we also need to start looking into new  
civil reactors, too, because the 20-year license renewals on the 60s- 
era reactors start ending in 7 years, and we can't renew them again,"  
Williams noted.

Setting aside the NATO issue, which was more than Zoé wanted to bite  
off at the moment, "Well, what seems convenient from one perspective  
might not be convenient from another," she said with humor.  "In any  
case, I agree that Britain is not necessary, but I mentioned them as  
they are perhaps the only other friendly nation with deep investments  
in a broad range of nuclear capabilities.  As such, if they were to  
choose to be involved, I think it would be appropriate that they  
would be what I would call a first tier partner in the endeavor.   
Most if not all other nations, excepting a situation where a country  
wished to make large investments towards adopting a broad range of  
nuclear expertise, would preferably be part of some sort of second  
tier.  A two tiered structure is probably preferable as I think it  
highly unlikely that many other nations would want to be 'in' as  
totally as you suggest, particularly on issues of nuclear deterrence  
but also on naval reactors, which only the U.S., Britain, and France  
use or plan on using.  Given this, probably we are the nations who  
will be most interested in the broad range capability and not just,  
say, the civilian capability."

"In terms of commitment, so long as this project manages to produce  
the same if not better returns than a unilateral program, France  
would have no issue with making a significant commitment,  
contribution, and effort to the proposed international project given  
our current outlook," Zoé said, reflecting the fact that France was  
already facing the need to accomplish much of what would come under  
the purview of this new program.  So, one way or another, the money  
would need to be spent so might as well spend it in a way that looked  
good internationally.

"Moreover, I think the priorities of our two nations are fairly well  
aligned.  Next generation reactors will be needed in the not too  
distant future in order to renew France's electrical generation  
capacity.  And the nuclear waste problem needs to be addressed.  Both  
our countries have to one extent or another looked at the approach of  
burying such waste in underground, long-term repositories.  Perhaps  
there is another way, though I do not know the prospects here.  For  
France, reprocessing of spent fuel is also an important matter, with  
the benefit of getting more out of the fuel and reducing the total  
volume of waste with the down side of producing more high-level  
waste.  It's a trade-off which perhaps should be examined more  
closely.  And, of course, France also has interest in naval reactor  
designs.  France has a mixed history in that regard I must admit."

This last was a reference to the severe problems with the Charles de  
Gaulle's nuclear plant.  Part of the problem was that the base design  
for the reactor was from one of France's submarines.  A reactor built  
to power a few thousand ton submarine apparently is not a good place  
to start in designing a reactor to power an aircraft carrier weighing  
tens of thousands of tons.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20.

"Mixed record, mm? I would probably use stronger terms than -that-,  
but that works," Williams replied with a chuckle. "The details can be  
worked out by those with more than an introductory knowledge of  
nuclear engineering; I was intending to lay out the high-level details."

"Well, our submarines work fine, but they aren't as visible, I  
suppose," Zoé said, pun intended.  "We seem, I suppose, to have at  
least the political and 'high level' features worked out to our  
mutual satisfaction."

"Bad pun. Bad, bad pun, in either language." A pause, and then  
Williams continued. "Which is probably all we can do. letting the  
staffers figure out how to fund the thing."

"True enough.  Then, unless you have anything else you wish to  
discuss, there are a few matters which I need to attend to," Zoé  
said, wrapping up the conversation.

"That'd be fine.  I think our people know how to get in touch with  
each other for the details.  Have a good day, Madam President,"  
Williams said in closing.

"You too," Zoé said.  The first conversation between the latest heads  
of state of France and America was over.


ACTIONS:

1)  The US and France agree to watch the situation in North Korea  
closely, largely waiting to see what direction the local players take  
things.

2)  The US and France will press the Chinese to at least divulge  
their plans in North Korea, and press for democracy in the country.

3)  The US and France will form a new international nuclear research  
and development organization, provisionally named the Allied Nuclear  
Development Agency (ANDA), with participation of the relevant  
countries nuclear agencies and companies, with priorities and  
competencies as above.  ANDA membership will be open to allies of the  
US and France, with the US, France, and, if it wishes to join, the UK  
as "Tier I" members given their investments and priorities (read  
military nuclear technology).