[War] World Alliances and Rivalries World Report: Volume 2

[pentaj2 at Scranton.edu]

WAR: World Report

- For all actions since Volume 1, advancing the timeline to Feb 17-Mar 
2, 2013

United Nations Security Council (Permanent Members): United States, 
United Kingdom, France, China, Russia

United Nations Security Council (Non-Permanent Members):
Until June, 2007:  India, Egypt, Norway, Mexico, Venezuela
Until July, 2007:  Canada, Chile, Italy, South Africa, Japan

Pending UN Security Council Actions: None
Pending UN General Assembly Actions: None
United Nations Secretariat: No news.
==============
GM Babble:

Where the hell is everyone?  I'm running out of ideas here on how to 
spur posting, and I'm sure John is too.  Let's get a move on it people.
 
-Chris

I am, in fact.

Please don't forget about us.

-John
===============================================

WORLD NEWS (Please review the following topics for potential posting 
fodder):

-Cold Week for North and West Europe

LONDON (AP) - Northern and Western Europe has been hit by a late and  
severe attack at the hands of Old Man Winter.  Temperatures across  
Britain, Ireland, France, the Low Countries, western Germany, Spain  
and Portugal have plunged, and a series of strong weather systems has  
dumped snow on the region.  Heavy snowfalls and low temperatures have  
prompted states of emergency in some areas.

Meteorologists blame the cold snap on colder than normal waters in  
the North Sea and in the Atlantic to the north and west of Britain,  
coupled with an unusually southerly jet stream which has brought  
Arctic weather systems farther south than is usual.  The heavy  
snowfalls are being generated by unusually warm water in the Bay of  
Biscay.  So, while Britain and the Low Countries have been very cold,  
the amount of snowfall has been tolerable, while in France and Spain  
the coldness is ameliorated by the warmth of the Bay of Biscay while  
massive amounts of snowfall have been seen, fueled by the warm waters  
of the Bay of Biscay.

On the British Isles, the temperature has plunged to close to record  
lows, with highs in Cornwall, the warmest place in the British Isles  
at the moment, near -8C.  Temperatures in the north of Scotland are  
currently testing the all-time record low of about -27.2C.  If there  
is any good fortune in any of this, it is that for the most part the  
is little snow, with the exceptions of the south of Ireland, Wales,  
and Cornwall, the latter locale receiving heavy amounts of snowfall  
(about 20cm in 24 hours).

In France and Spain, the problem is primarily the snow.  Temperatures  
in Madrid have dropped to about -3C, with areas in the north of Spain  
hovering around -7C.  Northern and Western France is experiencing  
similar temperatures of between -5C and -10C.   However, the problem  
in these areas is the copious amounts of snowfall.  On the north  
coast of Spain, and in Brittany in France, 24 hour snowfall rates of  
up to 40cm in some places.  Even where the rate of snowfall has not  
been outrageous, it has been consistent and continuous with little  
let up, making clearing the snow a matter of great difficulty.   
Madrid has seen 45cm of snow fall over the past three days, Burgos  
almost 75cm, Vigo 100cm, Bordeaux 80cm, Nantes 85cm, Brest 98cm, and  
Paris some 60cm.

Of course not everyone has seen this bout of weather in such poor a  
light.  Children across Western Europe are enjoying the winter  
weather and the time off from school.


-Dow Hits 20000:  Recession Over Proclaims Wall Street Journal

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed  
above the 20000 mark for the first time.  It first crossed the mark  
very briefly during trading almost a week ago, but then the occasion  
was used for consolidating gains.  Today's close was part of a rally  
over the past few days, a rally which is expected to continue in  
tomorrow's trading.  Overall, it's a symbol of the return to strength  
of the American and global economy, mired in recession over the past  
few years.

With unemployment back down to historical lows and economic growth  
nearing an annual rate of 3% for the first time in several years,  
optimism is rampant on Wall Street.  Behind this optimism there  
remain concerns about inflation, above three percent for the first  
time in four years, which has sparked concerns that the Federal  
Reserve may tighten monetary policy if inflation continues to rear  
it's ugly head.  However, the Fed is not expected to change its rates  
at its next meeting, though the market will be watching their  
statement very closely for signs of when the next rate increase may  
come, and more generally how the Fed intends to handle the issue.

The occasion of crossing the 20000 mark has led the Wall Street  
Journal to proclaim the end of the recession.  The accompanying  
article argues that while it had been clear that technically the  
recession had ended, with increasing profits, wages, and growth,  
there had been a lingering concern that the recession might not be  
over.  Given the mixed recovery from the Dot Com bubble, such  
feelings were understandable but in light of the current economic  
clime, less and less justifiable.  By crossing the 20000 mark, the  
Dow has helped break the markets out of a psychological sense of  
recession.

Analysts are divided about targets for the Dow over the rest of the  
year, though it seems clear that the next week will continue to see  
rallies in the Dow and other global markets.  Some think that the  
markets will end the year without making many more solid gains,  
waiting to see how the recovery and expansion develop.  More  
optimistic, or less pessimistic, market watchers are predicting a  
banner year, calling for the Dow to break 21000 by the end of the year.


-NASA's Orion Finally in Space

CAPE CANAVERAL (AP) - The program began by former President George W.  
Bush for a return to the Moon and a reinvigoration of American manned  
space-flight took a large stepped forward as NASA's new Orion  
spacecraft made its first unmanned space-flight in Earth orbit  
yesterday.  Launched early last night with the namesake constellation  
visible in the background, the launch seemed to go off without a  
hitch.  Miraculously, the launch went ahead as originally scheduled,  
with a minimum of developmental delays.  Of course, the Orion's Ares  
I rocket is simpler than the Ares V rocket which will be a key part  
of any lunar mission.  The Ares I was partly based off of the Space  
Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster design.  The first manned Orion mission  
is scheduled for March of next year.

NASA has been without an independent manned space-flight capability  
since the retirement of the Space Shuttle three years ago.  During  
the intervening period, the Russian space program has attempted to  
pick up the slack, with support of NASA and other space agencies.   
Still, the impending return of NASA to the business of maintaining,  
supplying, and keeping staffed the International Space Station will  
be welcomed.


-Africa Not Projected to Need Major Food Aid This Coming Year

ROME (AFP) - Early estimates of food production in areas that have in  
recent years experienced food shortages and have thus required food  
aid have shown that, barring unexpected catastrophe's, there should  
be no large scale hunger shortages during the coming year.  The  
world's food aid organizations appear to have some time on their  
hands, time which many administrators say they will use to shore up  
their capabilities and investigate ways of improving their food  
access programs.

Analysts believe that recent positive political developments in  
Africa are the main driver of this development.  With political  
stability, people have been able to invest in food production and  
other economic activities that will allow them to make a bare but not  
barren living.  As one analyst put it, "Africa's too tired to  
interfere in the lives of farmers this year".

Of course, a natural disaster or political upheaval can not be ruled  
out.  But with forecasters predicting adequate rainfall this year,  
and with the political front quiet, there is room for optimism.  If  
such a disaster were to occur, aid would, as usual, be forthcoming.

Calls to stars and aid proponents Bono and Bob Geldoff went  
unanswered, though one receptionist did say that Mr. Geldoff was at a  
loss as to what he would be doing for the next year now that there  
were no starving people to feed and thus make him look good.  His  
publicist later called and said that Mr. Geldoff was happy that  
Africa would be calorically self-sufficient this year.
 
ACTION RESPONSES
=============================

CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 55%
Government Approval: 57%
International Favor: 53% 
Economic Growth: 9.7% 
Inflation: 2.7% 
Unemployment: 10.1% 
----------------------------------------------------------

(Chinese Part Here)

=============================================

FRANCE

Population Approval: 57%
Government Approval: 53%
International Favor: 52%
Economic Growth: 2%
Inflation: 2.6%
Unemployment: 8%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------

No News to Report.

==============================================
JAPAN

Population Approval: 62%
Government Approval: 60%
International Favor: 57%
Economic Growth: 2.7%
Inflation: 0.6%
Unemployment: 4%
----------------------------------------------------------

Japan's influence in the Far East receives a slight boost by the 
acceptance of Malaysia and Thailand on the proposal of increased 
economic relations and talks.  Both nations believe that their highly 
industrialized nature means Japanese post-industrial 'high-tech' might 
offer benefits without real competition, a sentiment shared by 
Japanese businessmen.  Singapore however is in the same economic 
sphere as Japan, and has postponed any decision on talks 
pending 'review' by officials.  It is likely a delaying tactic aimed 
at giving no real answer while not committing to any true 
discussion... they don't think they can compete with Japan on the High-
Tech market, and don't have the 'industrial' advantage Malaysia and 
Thailand do.  The new agreements foster a feeling of progress, adding 
some slightly stronger economic indicators (dulled by the reports of 
unrest in Korea), and general population and government approval which 
is further enhanced by the 'rally around the flag' effect generated by 
the Korean Conflict.
 
The Chinese Ministry of State has remained silent on the issue, though 
given recent developments related to North Korea, that might be 
understandable.  Likewise, Russia has yet to respond.
 
The Japanese anti-piracy initiative, the Navy warns, would be 
difficult to meet.  China has already taken it upon herself, in an 
agreement with Russia, to begin enforcing common law in high-piracy 
areas.  The Japanese Navy may complicate things further, making any 
kind of cooperation difficult.  Thus far, there hasn't been much in 
the 
way of high-level communication either, and some warn that Japanese 
warships suddenly 'appearing' out of no where, regardless of how well 
intentioned, might just spark a response no side sees.  The people, 
the government, and business think it's a great idea however, and the 
Navy 'does' believe it has the resources necessary to pull it off.  
It's in the Prime Minister's hands how to proceed now.
 
It should be noted however, that any anti-piracy move will detract 
from Japan's heightened military alert status, instituted when North 
Korea went to hell in a hand basket.  

=============================================

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Population Approval: 62%
Government Approval: 58%
International Favor: 56%
Economic Growth: 2.5%
Inflation: 5.6%
Unemployment: 6.2%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------

The combined Russo-American exercises generates as much optimism as it 
does pessimism.  Foreign affairs aficionados are concerned over 
China's reaction to what it may consider 'provocation', particularly 
following the breaking news of PLA soldiers crossing the Yalu 
thousands at a time.  It does however officially 'end' in many eyes 
the Cold War, and signifies improving relations with the United 
States.  All in all, a good month at the Kremlin, if not the best.

======================================================

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Population Approval: 56%
Government Approval: 58%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 3.2%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.4%
----------------------------------------------------------

The Prime Minister's seeming increased interest in military affairs 
worries some, but encourages more.  Pollsters point to the marked 
improvement in approval ratings, while it's no secret that the British 
military has been looking for a more substantial force for a long 
time.  The problem isn't with the Officer or NCO corps however, as 
traditionally 'and' currently the British military has been 
consistantly ranked among the best in the world with regards to the 
talent of their officers and non-comms, but it does boil down to a 
simple funding issue.  The UK has never actually 'funded' the 
military, not in the way it needs, and recruitment goals consistantly 
go unmet.  Be it the elite Marine Commando force, or the regular army, 
young British men simply aren't signing up for the military.  Some say 
it's because the UK is viewed as a 'lap dog' of the United States, 
others say it's simply because the United Kingdom has nobody 
to 'fight'.  Whatever the reason, recruitment, retention, and upgrades 
should be the focus of the Ministry of Defense... not improving a 
training regime that is already one of the most sophisticated.
 
Several proposals by contractors to provide new equipment and much 
needed upgrades to prime facilities have already been tendered, and 
some are salivating at the opportunity to win high-pound contracts.  
It's likely that if the OK is given, there might be a temporary 
economic uptick.
 
A Royal Navy task force consisting of two destroyers and a submarine 
have arrived on station, in international waters off the coast of 
Korea.  They've begun monitoring operations, carefully avoiding 
involving themselves with the 'Korean Incident', although they have 
attracted Chinese attention.  A PLN submarine emerged behind 
the task force, with experts saying the submarine likely followed the 
task force for two to three days before emerging.  There were no 
incidents of casualties or hostile actions, and a Telegraph photo even 
shows the skipper of the British sub waving to his Chinese counterpart 
as they came alongside each other.  For the Admirality however, the 
fact a Chinese sub, two generations behind their own designs, managed 
to track them undetected is an embarrassment to say the least, and 
lends support to the initiative to increase military preparedness.

=============================================

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Population Approval: 57%  
Government Approval: 56%  
International Favor: 60%  
Economic Growth: 2.8%
Inflation: 3.1%
Unemployment: 4.6%
----------------------

The establishment of the Unified Services Support Command, USSC is 
underway, however there are already headaches.  JAG departments 
everywhere are bickering with logistics people, with each other, with 
everyone over to what extent the USSC actually has control over the 
different services and their supply requirements.  There's arguments 
over who has priority on what, who needs this and when, and naturally 
who will run the USSC itself.  Fortunately for the President, the 
United States isn't 'currently' at war, or the debacle might 
actually 'mean' something.  
 
When coupled with the 'knowledge-based' acquisition initiatives, there 
are pill-poppers abound.  With time however, (not to mention a little 
cojoling and practice) it's likely they'll be able to sort all the 
issues out.  In the interim, bloggers and arm chair generals enjoy 
discussing whether the moves are for the best, and if there will be 
any effect on American military power.
 
While the USSC is sorting itself out, the recent moves by the White 
House to make nice with Congress has received a tepid welcome.  The 
public at large finds it a nice distraction from what they feared 
would have ended up being another 'my way or the high-way' Bush style 
Presidency, while most in Congress have taking it as a 'mea culpa' 
move to strengthen Legislative relations among the White House staff.  
Still, others think the moves don't go nearly far enough... 
fortunately they are in a sizable, but marginalized (thus far) 
minority.
 
The Joint Military exercises with Russia also win accolades, among 
those who participated and likewise among those who follow such 
things.  There's a genuine feeling that perhaps, 'finally', the Cold 
War may be a thing of history.  Unfortunately, the move has the 
warhawks in Beijing up in arms... the exercise is the quintessential 
example of bad timing, with relations between Moscow and Beijing more 
than a little frosty at the moment.  Some have theorized the 
exercises, more than anything else prompted the Chinese move into 
North Korea... but this is only speculation.
 
The 'President's Room' initiative as it has been called, has ended 
with the acquisition of what is essentially a 'mobile executive 
suite'... the Secret Service understandably a little ticked off with 
the additional workload, but they'll get used to it.  Polls show it to 
be a popular move among those who understand it... but that's hardly 
everyone.
 
Overall, a decent and productive time at 1600, if not news inducing.  

=============================================

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

NOTE: Initial indicators were gleaned from as recent sources as
possible, for the most recent term possible (annualized). In some
cases, the numbers used are published estimates, but the English-
speaking nations' data is more or less right from the source.

Depression: Economic forces retracting uncontrolably and at a
dangerous pace with little end in sight.

Recession: Economic forces retracting, but more shallow than
Depression and more controlably. Sometimes necessary and part of
regular economic trends, although prelonged.

Revision: Economic forces retracting slightly and short term,
associated with economic systems refitting to accomodate new
industries, concentrations, etc.

Zero: No movement one way or the other.
Low: Comparatively low Economic growth/activity. (miniscule to about
2%, depending)
Good: Average economic activity (ranging from 2%-5% normally)
High: Above average performance (Greater than 5%) Sometimes
dangerous if in excess of 8% continuously.

SITES OF INTEREST

WAR Website: http://war.dagarcia.net/
Nova Horizon Simulations: http://www.novahorizon.com
United Nations: http://www.un.org/
Central Intelligence Agency: http://www.cia.gov/
CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
Federation of American Scientists: http://www.fas.org/
GlobalSecurity.org: http://www.globalsecurity.org/
CNN: http://www.cnn.com/
BBC: http://www.bbc.com/
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/