[War] Russia: "Keep your friends close....."

[Michael Downey]

"Keep your friend close....."
President Leonid Nemerenko
Russian Federation
2 February 2013
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Nemerenko stood alone in an enclosed exterior courtyard of the
Kremlin, looking up at the Moscow night sky. He was probably one of
the few people to actually observe faithfully the ban on smoking
inside the Kremlin itself. Pale grey smoke accompanied his frosty
breath into the heavens.

"Couldn't you smoke on a balcony or something?" asked Prime Minister
Koretsky. The other politician had his collar pulled up around his
neck as he approached the President. "At least then you'd have a warm
wind at your back."

"FSO was worried about snipers," replied Nemerenko with a shrug.
"After what happened with Severov, I suppose."

"I suppose you read President Hong's reply?"

"I did," said Nemerenko with a nod. "How's the cabinet taking it?"

"Not well. Denemetov is still optimistic, but General Yosolev is
pretty unhappy."

"What about the GRU?"

"Them? They're predicting a Chinese invasion in the next two years."

"Well, they're a bunch of pessimists anyway," shrugged Nemerenko once
again, dropping his cigarette and crushing it underfoot. "Still, our
Eastern neighbors are not giving us much reason to discount every
possibility." He began to head towards the door. "Come on, let's get
in out of the cold."
---

The three primaries of Russia's security apparatus, the Foreign
Minister, Chairman of the General Staff and the head of the SVR stood
as Nemerenko entered the room, Koretsky following close behind.

"As you were," said Nemerenko, moving to sit in a nearby armchair. The
harsh glare of the command room's lights gave him a headache, and he
hoped the more relaxed setting of his office would keep hotter heads
from getting out of hand. "Before you all start yammering away, Irina
I want your assessment first."

"I'm sorry to say that the Chinese reply to our non-aggression
proposal paints a very bad picture," said the Foreign Minister.
"Someone at their foreign ministry erred quite badly, because her
response was…… a very clear indication of unpleasant intentions on the
part of the PRC. Her very first reason, that this would somehow
undermine the UN, is utterly foolish. Not only has the UN always
actively encouraged bilateral non-aggression and peace treaties by
member states, but very little of international law is actually made
by the General Assembly. It's resolutions are entirely non binding.
Frankly, the Chinese have badly bungled this and we have to be careful
in how we respond."

"It's what we've always suspected," said Colonel-General Yosolev.
"They're eying Siberia like we feared. The proposal for a
non-aggression pact has caught them off guard, and they responded with
this as quickly as they could. I'm not a diplomat, but I did work in
GRU for quite some time. If they wern't planning something, they would
have taken the time to come up with a proper refusal, not this
half-assed bullshit. China is thinking about invading Siberia, and
they're thinking about doing it soon."

That seemed a bit reckless for China, and Nemerenko wondered if
Yosolev was a bit spooked by the idea of fighting a very formidable
enemy.

"I disagree," piped in Denemetov. "I think that this reply indicates
China is not discounting the possibility of trying to conquer Siberia,
but only as a consideration, not a set determination to do so in the
immediate future. Signing a non-aggression pact with us would make
such an invasion very costly to China politically. They would lose
serious face before the international community. By refusing to sign
the pact, they keep their options open."

"Mr. President, if China was to invade now they could penetrate as far
as Yakutsk before we could respond with enough force to halt their
advance. Not retake our lost territory, just stop them from taking
/more./ And that scenario does not allow for an attack on Vladivostok.
They have the advantage. Waiting would be strategically foolish, as
our military will be more prepared. Now is the time to strike."

It was the job of the military to think in terms of the worst case.
And what Yosolev said did make sense. If China did attack Russia now,
they would win. The Federation just simply wasn't prepared to fend off
a force as massive as the PLA.

"Alright, let's assume for a moment that the Chinese are planning an
invasion in the very near future. How do we stop them?" questioned
Nemerenko.

"At this point, we can't," answered the General. "Our military upgrade
and enhancement programs are just getting off the ground now. A
conventional war is not winnable. If China is about to attack, our
only choice would be a nuclear option."

That earned Yosolev a dark look from the President. Nuclear war was
the type of conflict no one would likely win.

"I'm not talking about an all-out exchange," noted the General,
reading Nemerenko's expression. "If China invades, we would attack
their ground forces with several low-yield tactical weapons. This
could easily annihilate any invading army, but would keep
environmental damage to our Siberian territories within…. acceptable
limits."

"Such an action would trigger a nuclear war with China, regardless if
we only use 'low-yield' weapons on their troops," said Denemetov
icily. "An attack with nuclear weapons is answered by an attack with
nuclear weapons."

"I don't think China would be willing to pay that price," answered
back Yosolev. "I can live with moderate damage to Siberia over losing
it completely. Can China stomach losing their entire country for
something that isn't theirs to begin with? The destruction of their
invading armies would be a strong reminder of what an all-out nuclear
exchange with us will entail for their entire race!"

"For ours as well, Colonel-General," said Nemerenko calmly. Yosolev
said nothing in reply. "What is the best-case scenario?"

"With a fully-equipped, trained military like we are planning, a
viable defense of Siberia is possible. We'd need adequate forewarning
to get our forces into position, and we'd have to give ground and then
retake it, but we could do it. But as I said, we're not at that level
of readiness yet."

It was a very bleak outlook. The transparent BS of Hong's reply made
even Nemerenko jumpy. Had Williams known something he hadn't?
Regardless, Nemerenko was starting to regret dismissing the US
President's warnings as American paranoia.

"We've always known that China is as dangerous an enemy as it is
useful an ally," the President said after a long moment of thought.
"We've always feared Chinese aspirations to take Siberia, for its
resources and living space. Now these fears are simply more immediate.
But as you have said Yosolev, only a nuclear attack would halt a
possible invasion if they invaded us now. The implication of this is
that we continue our relationship with China as if nothing is wrong.
Right now we still do have an agreement on mutual border security.
Until this, we've suspected they'd try and annex Siberia through
long-term illegal immigration. Keeping up the image of a peaceful
relationship will allow us to hold China to this agreement. If they go
through with the border security in bad faith, allowing Chinese
nationals to illegally pass into Siberia with state support, it will
be a final indication that we have to go to war. Until then, we simply
smile and nod."

"We should cancel the joint submarine development program with China,"
urged Yosolev. "Keeping up the illusion of an alliance is fine, but I
don't want to give them that kind of underwater ability. The Chinese
fight very dirty. If war comes, I have no doubt they'll attack every
ship on Earth that flies a Federation flag, military or civilian.
There's no need to make it easier for them."

"We approached them about that project," pointed out Denemetov.
"Beijing might use our withdrawal as an excuse to create tension."

"We'll simply point to budget issues," answered Nemerenko. "A
plausible explanation, considering that more money is going to be
diverted into beefing up the armed forces a lot sooner than we had
originally planned."

"OPSEC is going to be important from now on," said the
Colonel-General. "The General Staff is going to have to make a large
shift in our strategic planning for the long-term future. China is our
biggest threat now, the NATO bloc is inconsequential. The GRU and SVR
are going to have to make strong efforts to make sure Chinese
intelligence doesn't catch on to this. They may already suspect we
know, but suspicion is different from knowing."
---

Actions:
1) Strategic planning for the Russian military will now consider China
to be the most likely enemy Russia will have to fight in the near
future.
2) Pay very close attention to border security along the
Russian-Chinese border. Make sure China is keeping to their side of
the agreement and not in bad faith. Be very wary of Chinese illegal
immigration into Siberia.
3) Cancel the proposed joint submarine development program with China.
Give an explanation of budget constraints.
4) Outwardly, Russia will continue economic and military cooperation
with China.
5) Have the GRU review the readiness and disposition of PLA forces on the border
6) Keep Russian tactical nuclear forces on secret alert if an imminent
Chinese invasion of Siberia is possible.