[War] Russia: "The Far East Question"

[Michael Downey]

 "The Far East Question"
President Leonid Nemerenko
Russian Federation
31 January 2013
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The words of President Williams echoed in Nemerenko's mind for some time
after their conversation. An almost prophetic sense that the American
leaders concerns over China and Siberia could come true.

The point of the matter was that if China launched an all-out war of
conquest against Siberia, Russia would loose. The PLA was too big, the
Russian Army too small, and Siberia too distant from the military and
industrial heart of Russia in the Western half of the Federation to make
victory even a remote prospect, short of nuclear war.

President Hong and seemed both amicable and cooperative, not blindly bullish
and demanding as every past Chinese leader had been. Increased border
security, joint naval patrols, recognition of the Kuril Island; Russia had
gained much for very little, just their own recognition for China's
ownership of a cluster of islands Russia had not claim to anyway.

"Siberia has everything China wants," commented Kalugin, sipping on a small
cup of tea. "Living space, oil, lumber, mineral deposits of all varieties.
And if they want it, they'll take it. Maybe if we can get the Army up to the
level we want, we could wipe out three or four PLA divisions, but there's
about a billion more potential soldiers were that came from. Military
posturing is not the solution to this dilemma."

>From her seat in Nemerenko's office, Denemetov gave the Internal Minister a
withering look. She rather despised Kalugin, viewing him as nothing more
than a murderous thug, and did not at all like him giving input into the
jurisdiction of her ministry.

"I think your own assessment to Williams was rather accurate," said Irina to
Nemerenko. "China will not attempt anything overt due to the risk of any war
between the People's Republic and the Federation escalating into a nuclear
exchange. Any attempts by China to annex Siberia will be don by long-term
illegal immigration by Chinese citizens. A resolution to this issue is
increased border security, of course, and a treaty with China."

"A treaty?" asked Nemerenko. Denemetov nodded.

"The first part of the treaty would be a Non-Aggression Pact. A guarantee
that Russia and China will never take preemptive military action against one
another, to settle all our disputes through peaceful means, and to remain
militarily neutral if one of us should go to war with another power.

"The second half of the treaty would recognize the inviolability of our
respective borders, acknowledging that what is ours will remain ours and
vice versa. We have no border or land disputes with China as it is. The
issue over Amur and Ussuri Islands was settled back in 2004, as was control
over the Argun River area. Neither of us have anything to loose and
everything to gain by mutually guaranteeing ownership of our existing
territories."

"A refusal of China to sign such a treaty would be a telling sign that they
do have ambitions to control Siberia," noted Kalugin, earning him another
scornful look from Denemetov that he ignored.

"Stalin signed such a treaty with Hitler, and that did not stop the Germans
from nearly destroying us," pointed out Nemerenko.

"I admit China can simply break such a treaty if they really wanted Siberia,
but it would make overt military action or subtle support of illegal
immigration on their part a major embarrassment before the international
community. At the very least, you can send a letter to President Hong
outlining the provisions of the treaty."

Why not? And as Kalugin had pointed out, accursed swine that he was, is
China refusing to sign it would indicate that even more steps would have to
be taken to secure the Far East region.

"Fine. I'll draft a signed note for President Hong. We'll send it off and
see how they react."

---

To: President Xia Hong, People's Republic of China
From: President Leonid Nemerenko, Russian Federation
Subject: Russo-Sino Non-Aggression Pact
[Encrypted, Moscow-Beijing Protocol]

President Hong,

Allow me to begin by saying the level of cooperation our two respective
administrations have been able to achieve so early into our mutual
relationship. Our new found cooperation on border security and anti-piracy
will certainly improve the peace and stability of our mutual nations, and
our joint support for our territorial claims will also be very beneficial.

I write you today to propose a new Russo-Sino agreement that will once again
to more to improve trade, security and cooperation between us. My proposal
is for a permanent non-aggression pact between our two nations, forever
cementing the peace and prosperity our countries enjoy between one another.

The terms of this proposed agreement would be:

1)       China and Russia agree not to take preemptive military action
against the other

2)       China and Russia agree to settle all disputes, of any sort, through
peaceful means only

3)       China and Russia recognize the inviolability of each signatory's
respective borders and will make no attempts, overt or covert, to ever
steal, invade, usurp or otherwise annex the territory of the other

4)       China and Russia agree to military neutrality in the even that one
party should enter into armed conflict with another foreign power

It is my sincere hope that you will give serious consideration to my
proposal, and I am more than willing to meet with our at a time and place of
your convenience to negotiate the proposed terms.

Signed,
Leonid Nemerenko,
President of the Russian Federation

---

Actions:
1) Propose Russo-Sino Non-Aggression Pact to the PRC
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