[War] Russia/USA: "The Call, Part II"

[Michael Downey]

"The Call, Part II"
President Williams, United States of America
President Nemerenko, Russian Federation
31 January 2013
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

"For my part, I grant...I'm

not the type to go ranting about it, but I -don't- trust them all that
much. They're cloaking their military buildup under a lot of secrecy,
they're not saying all that much about why, and while Taiwan generally
moves to the beat of its own drummer, they haven't been obnoxious
lately. In short, when they don't say much about why they're hiding
ever more guns under their coat, they make the neighborhood - hell,
the whole town - nervous. We heard about you working with em on SSN
design, and the usual suspects in Congress howled. And they did have a
point. Forget human rights, forget all of that for a moment.

"The bear, in riding the dragon, is making the eagle look on with
growing wariness. And no small amount of confusion. There are not all
that many directions the Chinese can usefully send their troops, and
if I were in Beijing, Siberia, being big, relatively unpopulated, and
filled with tasty mineral resources, would look rather tempting. While
they may proclaim the aim to be Taiwan, there's a fairly stable status
quo I can't see it being in anybody's interest to upset. They -tried-
marching into Southeast Asia in 1979, and as I recall, the Chinese
lost to Vietnam. India...I wouldn't expect them to be that braindead.
That would be a very, very stupid war.

"Which leaves, what? Korea, which would freak out everybody and send
them directly into combat with US forces? Or Siberia...Where, in my
professional opinion, they might make gains for a few days, maybe a
few weeks, but they'd be paying a hell of a price, when slow and
steady population movements can get them a hold much more securely, if
they're willing to be patient?

"I'm trying to figure out where Russia benefits, and I...don't see how
you benefit from building attack subs with em, in the totality of the
picture," Williams noted. "There's probably a reason there that looks
obvious to you, but that I'm missing, so maybe you could enlighten me."

This had his companions in the Oval Office looking curiously at him,
leaning interestedly into their headsets.

"I think you are letting your past experience with us, the Soviets
that is, make you too vigilant," replied Nemerenko. "Yes I can agree
China is an unknown commodity. Their military buildup is somewhat
concerning to the General Staff, and don't think I haven't been
worried about how they look at Siberia.

"I'm weary of China, but not afraid. Why is Moscow moving closer to
Beijing? Because the most dangerous potential enemies make the most
valuable potential allies. They will never make a military grab at
Siberia for the simple fact that nuclear powers do not go to war with
nuclear powers. The Chinese are many things, stupid is not one of
them. Annexation by long-term illegal immigration is a realistic
danger, which is why a border control crackdown over illegal movement
between our two respective borders is coming soon. And by soon, I mean
within the next few months.

"To be frank, China is going to be a superpower and there is nothing
that you or I can do about it. The trouble they went through over the
past few years was..... how do you say? Hiccup? I would much rather be
their friend than their enemy. It is safer, and makes it easier to
protect our Far East holdings in the longer term if we are in friendly
relations now. As for the sub project..... heh. I won't ask who your
source is, but we both want subs that compete against your Virginia-
class, Russia has the technology and China has the money. The math is
simple. We have no pressing maritime territorial disputes with China,
and any possible war over Siberia will be fought on the ground and in
the sky, not the sea."

"Thank you for being so honest," Williams replied, with a smile on his
face. The Navy would probably not mind that comment, no. "And, yes,
better not to ask. I wonder, however, what makes you so confident that
they would be so...reticent to use nuclear weapons? You too might be
relying too much on the past. There are a billion Chinese and not even
two hundred million Russians. They could annihilate your population
centers with not nearly proportionate losses in return," he pointed
out. "Part of the math of MAD was that we had more or less equal
populations."

"With that said, however, I note your comments re China's 'inevitable'
rise to power and will point something out. History posits that there
have been very few times in which China was not faced with internal
strife; the notion of a unified China has typically been honored more
in the breach than in practice," Williams noted. "Not that I think it
will come so soon, but I'm not so sure that their superpower status
is quite so inevitable. One must plan for that possibility, of course,
but it's hardly certain."

Nemerenko smirked. "I think you should talk with the SAC more often,
Mr. President. I have enough nuclear warheads and ICBMs to destroy
China, and the rest of the planet, ten to fifteen times over, just
like you do. Utter annihilation is indeed what MAD is about, and I can
certainly pull that of in aces." It seemed to be a sign of hubris to
brag about one's ability to destroy the human race, but it was needed.
It was very important that Williams understand that while Russia was
not the conventional military power the USSR was, their nuclear
ability still ranked right alongside the USA for raw destructive
force. That Williams was uninformed about that should have earned
someone at the Pentagon a smack, but ces la vies.

"Spades," whispered Denemetov. Nemerenko waved her off.

"As for your doubts that China will be a superpower, well, that's
really more your concern. All I care about is Siberia. It will be your
relationship with China that will determine the global balance of
power for the next century, not mine."

Williams kept his voice neutral, instead of laughing. "Point taken on
both issues. In fairness to STRATCOM, though, I've only been in office
for a week, and I wasn't supposed to -have- this office; they haven't
had -time- to brief me yet." A note from the Pentagon rep appeared on
his computer: 'We're all kinda facepalming here, sir. Next week?' A
grin at the embarrassed colonel. 'It's okay, -I- put my foot in my
mouth there. I'll get back to you.'

"Though further arms reductions -are- something for discussion,
eventually. Really, isn't cooking humanity to a crisp golden brown -
once- enough?

"I could order nuclear weapons release, don't get me wrong. But
whether I'd shoot myself after that or not? Good question," he noted,
his voice soft and sober.

"Do not take my reminder of the Federation's nuclear ability as some
sort of veiled threat, Mr. President," noted Nemerenko. "There's a
very good reasons our respective predecessors called it 'MAD.' Should
I ever turn the key, the world will end. I don't think the man that
starts the apocalypse will get into heaven, so I'm rather reluctant to
do it. To be clear, I do see a potential threat in the PRC, but for
the moment I do not see them as an immediate danger to Russia.

"On the issue of nuclear weapons, and threats from the Far East, there
is one nation that is a far more pressing concern than China. North
Korea. While the Chinese are not saints, they are at least sane. I
cannot say the same for that bizarre little madman in Pyongyang. As
far as we -know-, they have no nuclear weapons currently in their
arsenal. The Chinese and Japanese bought them off sufficiently three
years ago. But they have tested a weapon, and have the ability to make
more. This is very distressing to Russia. The North Koreans could hit
Hawaii, maybe. But nearly half of my nation lies within their attack
range."

Nemerenko's response, for some reason, made John chuckle. "Forget not
getting into heaven. No, on this issue I firmly agree with my church's
teaching since 1945: The guy who first uses nuclear weapons -not- in
response to the use of a nuclear weapon will go -straight- to hell, no
exceptions." A pause.

"I'll take your point on China, and I agree on North Korea. They keep
us all awake at night around here, and were - *are* - one of the
nightmare scenarios members of the House Armed Services Committee have
batted around during late-night meetings. But we still have thousands
of troops on the DMZ, and the whole of Soeul sits under the crosshairs
of DPRK artillery, so I'm reluctant to do anything that might push Kim
Jong Il into restarting war on the peninsula. Nor do I really like the
idea of a refugee crisis, or the Chinese rolling in to dominate the
DPRK, as they might try in the event of a regime collapse. Remember,
Korea, until the 19th century, paid tribute to the Chinese Emperor." A
briefer pause. "Unfortunately, besides waiting for Kim Jong Il to keel
over and constantly checking and rechecking our plans, there isn't all
that much we can do."

At that point, Williams felt a weight on his leg. Looking down, he saw
Gizmo, a soft-coated Wheaten terrier, nuzzling against it, as the dog
did when he was just content and saw one of his humans sitting down.
Reaching down to give the dog a headscratch, he paused.

"Moving on. An idea came to mind last night as I was planning for this
call, and it won't go away. Two ideas, actually. Both are rather
random, probably a clue I shouldn't have been up til 1 am reading, but
as I try to teach my staff that even the dumbest ideas might have
merit, I may as well follow my own advice.

"One, I know that the Trans-Siberian Railway runs on a broad-gauge
system, as does the rest of the Russian railway system. I know the EU
is giving the Baltic states cash to convert to standard gauge, and the
Chinese use standard gauge. Has there ever been thought given to
converting the Russian system to standard gauge, or at least a dual-
gauge system as a transition measure? I could see a bunch of trade
benefits, after all. Hell, it's the kind of project that, given the
benefit to, say, US rail equipment manufacturers, I could even see
getting cash from Congress. My 'weird dream of the week' has been a
train ride from London to Vladivostok, something not possible at
present because of the break-of-gauge at the Russian border, but
that's probably because I had a 4-year-old babbling to me on Monday
about, among a million other things, trains," Williams noted. He had
to thank Alexander for that.

"Second...Grain. Weather's gotten weird in the past decade, yes, but I
think we could still benefit from working on GMO strains of grain for
cold climates. Eventual dream for when -I'm- old and gray: Grain
farming in Alaska and Siberia. Or, for even more far-off dreaming that
probably proves I need more coffee, grain farming in Antarctica.
Impossible? Maybe. But we could do worse than trying, and if -we- do
it, the agriculture corps can't patent it and hold our farmers
hostage."

For his part, Nemerenko's biggest fear was that North Korea would
start to collapse and they would attack everyone in reach just for the
hell of it. China and the ROK would bear the brunt of their ragged but
vast armies, and any nuclear missiles would likely be sent at Japan,
but there was no way such a scenario would be good for Russia.

"Alright, I agree with your stance on North Korea. No sense in poking
them while they're currently inactive.

"Your other proposals are.... interesting." He tried to find the right
word in English. "There indeed has been thought of a standard system
for our railways, but right now our funds are being taken up by
more pressing issues. It is something for down the road, perhaps two
or three years from now, but not right away.

"The GMO proposal is perhaps an idea for down the road. Improving our
existing agriculture system would be more beneficial for Russia, not
attempting to start agriculture in Siberia."

Williams nodded. "I'll ask the Agriculture Department what they can
offer. In regards to Korea: One of the Pentagon's biggest fears has
been the possibility of Russian intervention in a conflict on the
peninsula. Even arms sales to North Korea would be worrying. Could I
have a commitment from the Russian Federation that neither would
happen under your leadership? I got that sense from your words, but I
want to be sure."

"If it would make you feel better, I'll sign a treaty with you
guarantee that Russia will never sell arms to the DPRK. However
you're going to have to be a bit more specific about what you regard
as our possible 'intervention.'" Did Williams expect the Federation
to jump in on the side of the North or what?

"No need for any treaties. Your word is good enough," Williams
replied. "As far as what I mean by intervention? Bluntly, as of 2010
or so, when I last had reason to review the scenarios during reserve
duty, we figured on at least the -possibility- of not merely Chinese,
but Russian combatant participation. Before you choke: Keep in mind,
it's the Joint Staff. Same as STAVKA, there's plans for everything,
and I do mean -everything-." It was better to leave whether or not
that included anything involving extraterrestrials alone. "Point is, I
doubt you'd be...Well, insane enough to support our friendly
neighborhood Stalinist dwarf, but I figure being coy on the issue is a
bad idea, and insofar as we can reduce uncertainty on each other's
intentions, we should. Plus, if Congress asks - I trained my former
colleagues well enough in probing questions and effectove oversight
that I'm sure they would - I'd like my subordinates to be able to
reply honestly that Moscow has given us good-faith reassurances that
we won't be staring down gunsights at each other on this.

"Beyond what we've just covered, though, Korea is probably better
handled by those in our governments specifically responsible for the
region."

"The only reasons Federation troops would be entering North Korea
would be to defend our national security from DPRK aggression," said
Nemerenko bluntly. He tried to think of some sort of analogy or phrase
to use, but his grasp of English was not deep enough to turn something
up quickly. "Regardless, that's about everything on my agenda for the
moment."

Williams drummed his fingers on his desk for a second, glancing at
those in the Oval Office with him. 'Anything?' his facial expression
asked. Shakes of the head indicated the answer was 'Nothing'.

"And...The way my dog is...sitting on my foot giving me eyes..." He
trailed off with a grin, looking at Gizmo, who was sitting on his foot
looking like he really wanted to go out and play, "...Oh, you stop
that, Gizmo..." he muttered, then, blinking, "Oh, sorry, just
grumbling at the dog. Annnnyway, the way my terrier is looking at me,
either his human takes -him- out to play, or he'll try walking the
human. With my agenda also looking clear, I'd say we're done for now,
especially since I think we might want to avoid the geopolitical
effects of either of us being walked by a dog anywhere the press might
notice." Williams noted, shaking his foot. Gizmo didn't take the hint,
and just sat there, wagging his tail happily.

---
Actions:
1) Russia will maintain continued military and economic cooperation with
China
2) Russia unilaterally commit ts to never sell weapons to North Korea
3) Likewise, Russia commits to never involve itself in the defense of the
DPRK
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://esteroic.com/pipermail/war_esteroic.com/attachments/20070316/d2be4edf/attachment-0001.html