[War] World Alliances and Rivalries World Report: Volume 2

[pentaj2 at Scranton.edu]

WAR: World Report

- For all actions since Volume 2, advancing the timeline to Mar 3-Mar 
17, 2013

United Nations Security Council (Permanent Members): United States, 
United Kingdom, France, China, Russia

United Nations Security Council (Non-Permanent Members):
Until September, 2007:  India, Egypt, Norway, Mexico, Venezuela
Until October, 2007:  Canada, Chile, Italy, South Africa, Japan

Pending UN Security Council Actions: A draft Russian resolution 
endorsing the Chinese occupation of North Korea is being circulated 
prior to formal introduction, but meeting with displeasure among UN 
member nations. Developing countries in particular are unhappy, seeing 
it as a serious degradation of commitments to territorial integriry 
and sovereignty. (Never mind that there isn't a North Korean 
government.)
Pending UN General Assembly Actions: None
United Nations Secretariat: No news.
==============
GM Babble:
 
Ye GODS, this took a freaking eternity to get out.

We need people. There is no doubt about it. If you *can* recruit, 
either players or lurkers, please, please, please do.

As there isn't a Russian player anymore, we didn't include them in the 
WR.

-John

===============================================

WORLD NEWS (Please review the following topics for potential posting 
fodder):

Baekdu Mountain erupts

China-North Korea Border, Mar 3 (AP) - Baekdu Mountain, a volcano held 
to be the legendary origin of both the Manchu and Korean peoples and 
also held to the legendary birthplace of late North Korean leader Kim 
Jong Il, erupted explosively today, sending ash and debris over much 
of North Korea and neighboring regions of China.

Seismic sensors in the area were ill-maintained by the North Korean 
government and had only begun to be repaired by Chinese forces, 
scientists say, reducing the possibility of warning; in the event, 
none came, and the volcano erupted explosively at 2352 Seoul Time on 
March 2nd, ash and debris falling for dozens of kilometers around, 
followed by fast-moving lava flows. Earthquakes of up to 8.5 magnitude 
have occurred in the hours since, and the eruption is still ongoing.

Reports of noticable shaking have been reported as far south as Pusan, 
South Korea; as far north as Vladivostok, Russia, and as far east as 
Japan.

Satellite images show an eruption described by vulcanologists as 
similar to the eruption of Mt. Vesuvius in 79 AD which destroyed the 
city of Pompeii, what is termed a "Plinian eruption".

Damage assessment via satellite is still ongoing.
====

Tsunami Warning issued for Northern Honshu and Southern Hokkaido

The Japanese Meteorological Agency has issued a Tsunami Warning for 
the Western coastlines of Honshu north of Akita and Hokkaido south of 
Sapporo as a result of the seismic activity surrounding the eruption 
of Baekdu Mountain. Further information will be released as it becomes 
available.

====

7.5 Earthquake felt in Dalian, China

An earthquake measured by the USGS at 7.5 Magnitude has struck Dalian, 
China as of 0100 Seoul Time, March 3. Communications and data traffic 
have been disrupted, but reports of nearby merchant ships and aircraft 
report the possibility of heavy damage. Chinese government officials 
report the immediate deployment of civil defense forces, but are 
guarded as to estimates of casaulties or damage.

ACTION RESPONSES
=============================

CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 55%
Government Approval: 57%
International Favor: 50%
Economic Growth: 9.7%, high
Inflation: 2.7%
Unemployment: 10.1%
----------------------------------

Operations in Korea are proceeding apace. Much of the population, at 
least outwardly, seems cowed by the presence of 750 thousand Chinese 
troops in their country. Major famine has been averted, though the 
refugee camps are (as confirmed by Russian observers) almost certain 
to become breeding grounds for disease, particularly as time goes on. 
Typhoid, cholera, tuberculosis (unfortunately, mostly multiple-drug-
reistant strains), measles (which is mostly killing North Korean 
children - thousands per week, as they're already weakened by years of 
malnutrition), Hepatitis A and B, Trachoma, Leptospirosis, E. Coli, 
Japanese Encephalitis, and Dengue fever are all making appearances, 
often running rampant, and often infecting Chinese personnel.

However, a final inventory of North korean weapons stocks shows a 
disturbing lack of mortars, SAMs, and pistols, as well as related 
ammunition. Not by -much-, perhaps attributable to low-level theft, 
but enough to be very worrying.

Worried commanders are searching villages as thoroughly as they can, 
but turning up only limited quantities of weapons, and (despite their 
best efforts) making villagers thoroughly unhappy and angry. They 
figured the rampant invasions of privacy would have ended with the Il 
regime. Overall, there doesn't *appear* to be a resistance movement 
forming, though there are reports of isolated attacks on Chinese 
supply convoys, and as is common in disturbed areas, a black market 
has sprouted, supplying just about everything.

Russia, for what it's worth, has taken immense heat for seeming to 
support the Chinese occupation of North Korea; the "Quote of the Week" 
goes to an unnamed Western diplomat in Moscow who was quoted by the 
New York Times as saying, "One would think the Russians would be aware 
enough to realize that even in the Middle Ages, you *didn't* endorse 
invasions, period. Let alone in the modern world."

=============================================

FRANCE

Population Approval: 59%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 53%
Economic Growth: 2%
Inflation: 2.6%
Unemployment: 8%
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Recent agreements with the United States stir some consternation among 
the usual anti-American crowd, however this is hardly noticed in the 
President's approval ratings.  In fact, among certain categories, the 
President has improved.  This includes scientists in France's 
burgeoning Nuclear Power industry, who directly benefit from the ANDA 
agreement with the United States, and those businesses and 
institutions who rely on such agreements.  There is strong support in 
the UK to join ANDA at least for the sake of technological 
cooperation, though the normal Green advocates oppose yet another dive 
into Nuclear power.
 
The French population, normally outspoken on international affairs, 
seem to be taking their lead from the President in a 'wait and see' 
approach to the Chinese occupation of North Korea.  Support is high 
for the President's push for Democracy in the region, and 
simultaneously for the cautious approach to China, in cooperation with 
American moves.  There is no response yet from the Chinese.

==============================================

GERMANY
 
Population Approval: 55%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 2.5%
Inflation: 1.8%
Unemployment: 7%
----------------------------------------------------------

The German people welcome their new leader with open arms, happy to 
give this new leader the opportunity to display his skills.  Social, 
environmental, and economic issues top the electorate's list of 
concerns, and many are awaiting, and hoping, for the best.

==============================================

JAPAN

Population Approval: 57%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 57%
Economic Growth: 2.8%
Inflation: 0.6%
Unemployment: 4%
----------------------------------------------------------

Things could be said to be going quite well for Japan...Well, that is, 
if the population wasn't quite as angry as they are.

The Russo-Japanese Summit is the major newsmaker of these last 2 
weeks, and reactions are passionate.

Eastern Europe is in an uproar over Japanese cooperation with Russia 
on missile and defense measures. Russia's military upgrades are 
scaring people enough; Japanese help to that scares them even more. 
Formal protests have come from Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, 
Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, and Ukraine. Backchannel 
expressions of "What the hell?" are being issued by Georgia and 
Armenia.

Free trade, that said, is welcomed by businessmen on both sides, and 
both economies should see a slight bump from that.

However...*Nobody* likes the resolution on the Kuril Islands. The Diet 
is in an uproar. Massive protests have occurred in Tokyo and Osaka, 
with smaller (though still large) protests elsewhere throughout Japan. 
Whether the Diet will actually pass the treaty is too close to call, 
and chances are growing more negative by the day. The media widely 
questions if the relationship between the Russian President and 
Japanese PM, between the professor and star pupil, had consciously or 
unconsciously induced the PM into accepting what is generally said to 
be a very, very bad deal for Japan. Some wags are comparing it to the 
sale of Manhattan to the Dutch, or the American purchase of Alaska 
from Russia. Worse, actually, since the Japanese got a tidally covered 
islet and a rock that doesn't really stick out of the sea.

Russians aren't happy either, and nationalists especially are less 
than pleased. An equal level of vehemence is present, and protests are 
popping up throughout Russia, the ones in Moscow being quite large.

That said, Japanese Anti-Piracy efforts are widely applauded.

The plan is approved by the Philippines and Thailand with -gusto-. 
Malaysia and Indonesia are convinced only once the pork is doled out. 
Singapore knocks politely and asks insistently to join in, and a good 
part of Singaporean opinion is feeling grumpy that they were 
forgotten. India is okay with it but won't get involved. Australia is 
debating it. 

======================================================

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Population Approval: 58%
Government Approval: 59%
International Favor: 56%
Economic Growth: 3.45%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.3%
----------------------------------------------------------

The UK's re-strengthening of ties with the United States is 
politically neutral and expected after a period of minor estrangement 
associated with the Bush Presidency.  The lifting of travel 
restrictions allows more freedom for British tourists who want to take 
advantage of the pound's weight against the dollar, and the cryptic 
response from #10 about being more involved in international affairs 
gets a few nods despite being short on specifics.
 
The opening of Parliament went fairly smoothly and congenially, and 
was uncharacteristically productive.  The PM enjoys something of a 
honeymoon moment with the Parliament, having just reached office, and 
therefore will, temporarily, see higher support numbers among 
opponents than might be expected normally.  The session began on a 
politically neutral topic, a joint industrial X-Prize 'Council' to 
organize a number of programs designed to bring about improvements in 
manufacturing technology and techniques.  Already appointments are 
being forwarded from both sides of the 'pond', and energy and support 
remains high among business leaders, scientists, engineers, and 
educators.  The steel production improvement program (S-PIP) is slated 
to begin shortly with formal requirements and rules.  The Council will 
submit reports to both the UK and US governments on progress in terms 
of dispersing funds and meeting goals.
 
Likewise, a new Next Generation  Rifle System (Nex-Gen Rifle, or NGRS 
for short) has wide support.  The current standard rifle, the SA-80, 
had an incredibly ignoble start, much like the M-16.  So badly was the 
design flawed, that most British special forces units resorted to 
using M-16's and M-4's during the first Gulf War.  Much to the 
embarrassment of the nation's gun manufacturers, it was a German 
company that finally turned the SA-80 into a decently deployable 
system.  There is some fear, with trying to meet requirements for the 
US, UK, and foreign sales customers, that this system may likewise 
develop into a 'jack of all trades, master of none' system to the ire 
of those it's assigned to.  Discussions to enter the initial design 
phase between consortiums lead by Lee Enfield in the UK and Colt 
Firearms in the US are currently underway, with reports scheduled to 
reach Congress and Parliament outlining basic planned procedure at the 
end of the month.

The only red-faced moment for the Prime Minister this week came on the 
issue of applying hollow-point bullets in a combat environment.  
International law authorizes 'only' the use of full metal jacket 
rounds in combat, and many jurists have theorized that deviation from 
this standard is a technical legal infraction.  The Ministry of 
Defense finally released secretly to the Prime Minister their own 
objections, siting the facts that switching to a hollow-point round 
would not only be cost prohibitive, but would promote the use of such 
rounds by potential enemies, adversely effecting forces with regular 
access to heavy body armor such as the militaries of the UK and the US 
rather than lightly armored guerillas and insurgents who are the more 
serious threats to both nations.  Debate was ended at the close of the 
session, pending a final decision from the Prime Minister.

=============================================

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Population Approval: 58%  
Government Approval: 56%  
International Favor: 62%  
Economic Growth: 2.9%
Inflation: 3.1%
Unemployment: 4.6%
----------------------

The President's numbers have held fairly steady, and fairly 
positively, throughout his tenure to date.  The 'rally around the 
flag' effect of events in North Korea and it's ramifications however 
are being offset in part by two isolated, but steadily growing (in 
followship) realizations... China isn't Iraq and not a push-over 
nation, and any particularly evocative moves might be met with 
economic reprisal, or worse.  In recent polls it's become obvious 
that 'this' generation of Americans is not overall willing to fight, 
should it come that, against the Chinese for territory in which 
American interests aren't clearly at stake.  There is simply a 
disconnect which has yet to be bridged, between North Korea's 
importance to the United States, and the United States' obligations to 
South Korea (whom recent media reports have noted have also been less 
than hospitable to American troops deployed there.)
 
Distracting the public's attention from international concerns in the 
far east is the President's recent successes in re-establishing closer 
ties with it's traditional allies.  This earns the President some 
approval in the higher-educated classes, while the lower and less 
aware 'are' appreciating the President's move to strengthen the 
American industrial sector.  Many are aware of the ghost town 
phenomena that gripped America in the 70's and 80's as factories fled 
for better prospects... and are hoping that this new, if small, 
movement to lure them back will help secure their economic futures.  
It should be noted that the SBA and the Department of Commerce have 
conducted studies on American industrialization, and although a lack 
of modernization has been a problem, it's only been relatively minor 
and relatively recent.  A far greater barrier to entry is the 
prohibitive cost of health insurance and traditional employment 
benefits, which is why so many factories have moved up 
to the great white north in recent years.  None the less, any blessing 
is a good blessing!
 
In Congress, the session began on a politically neutral topic, a joint 
industrial X-Prize 'Council' to organize a number of programs designed 
to bring about improvements in manufacturing technology and 
techniques.  Already appointments are being forwarded from both sides 
of the 'pond', and energy and support remains high among business 
leaders, scientists, engineers, and educators.  The steel production 
improvement program (S-PIP) is slated to begin shortly with formal 
requirements and rules.  The Council will submit reports to both the 
UK and US governments on progress in terms of dispersing funds and 
meeting goals. 
 
Likewise, a new Next Generation  Rifle System (Nex-Gen Rifle, or NGRS 
for short) has wide support.  The current standard rifle, the M-16 A-
4, had an incredibly ignoble start, much like the SA-80.  So badly was 
the design flawed, that many special forces units resorted to using AK-
47's and M-14's during the Vietnam War.  Over the years however, the 
design has been refined into one of the most reliable (if still fairly 
complicated) and by far most capable all around small arms system in 
the world... the base design for many weapons in service everywhere  
There is some fear, with trying to meet requirements for the US, UK, 
and foreign sales customers, that this system may likewise develop 
into a 'jack of all trades, master of none' system to the ire of those 
it's assigned to, while the venerable M-16, much like the M-14 and M-1 
Garand before her have attracted die-hard, almost fanatical popularity 
among 'old-timers' and young soldiers alike.  Discussions to enter the 
initial design phase between consortiums lead by Lee Enfield in the UK 
and Colt 
Firearms in the US are currently underway, with reports scheduled to 
reach Congress and Parliament outlining basic planned procedure at the 
end of the month.
 
In roads with France in regards to the Sino-issue are progressing 
nicely, and thanks to it and UK involvement it is likely most (if not 
all) of Europe will follow.  The development of ANDA, in this climate, 
was practically ignored, but will prove scientifically fortuitous as 
America seeks to move from oil.

((Chris, could I have more info re ANDA? Like, when it'll be 
operational, which countries have expressed interest, etc? - John))

=============================================

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

NOTE: Initial indicators were gleaned from as recent sources as
possible, for the most recent term possible (annualized). In some
cases, the numbers used are published estimates, but the English-
speaking nations' data is more or less right from the source.

Depression: Economic forces retracting uncontrolably and at a
dangerous pace with little end in sight.

Recession: Economic forces retracting, but more shallow than
Depression and more controlably. Sometimes necessary and part of
regular economic trends, although prelonged.

Revision: Economic forces retracting slightly and short term,
associated with economic systems refitting to accomodate new
industries, concentrations, etc.

Zero: No movement one way or the other.
Low: Comparatively low Economic growth/activity. (miniscule to about
2%, depending)
Good: Average economic activity (ranging from 2%-5% normally)
High: Above average performance (Greater than 5%) Sometimes
dangerous if in excess of 8% continuously.

SITES OF INTEREST

WAR Website: http://war.dagarcia.net/
Nova Horizon Simulations: http://www.novahorizon.com
United Nations: http://www.un.org/
Central Intelligence Agency: http://www.cia.gov/
CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
Federation of American Scientists: http://www.fas.org/
GlobalSecurity.org: http://www.globalsecurity.org/
CNN: http://www.cnn.com/
BBC: http://www.bbc.com/
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/