[War] Timeline thinking

[Dan Garcia]

I agree with Mike.  Microsoft will struggle to get its next version of Windows out the door which will be a hog and have some more eye candy and security "throw-me-a-bone"'s (in the meantime Apple will have released at least three new versions of its OS, and Linux will continue being big in the enterprise while struggling in the desktop...).  TVs are now digital, and probably flatscreens are more dominant (prices have come down a lot).  Maybe the first quantum computers (in govt labs) are in use, primarily for encryption/decryption stuff (I actually don't know quite how close we are here, though there are people I can ask [quantum information's big in my department...]).  Early optical computer technologies are on the market (mainly used for communication between computer components).  Moore's Law has held, so chips now have 10 times as many transistors or so as now, which has seen multi-threading/multi-core technologies become commonplace, though by no means perfect.  Most people in the developed world have laptops (call it 75%).  Flash drives become even more common.  Buying software to download online becomes more common.  The next round of the console wars has been settled in favor of...  someone.

The internet will be bigger.  Broadband is a little faster, but the big improvement is in QoS (quality of service, e.g. how consistent your connection is).  Internet TV is around, though adoption rates are low.  The "digital hub" idea has made incremental advances, and storing video on your computer is becoming a big thing (particularly once hard drive sizes become sufficiently endless that storing HD video is as big a deal as storing audio nowadays).  IP phones are still around, never blew up because of inertia and cell phones.  Blogs are still around, YouTube and co are still around, etc.  Google is still number one, if only because of inertia, though the share price rationalized itself at somepoint when people realized that they were basically a new ad broker.  Wireless broadband is around, but hasn't really caught on because of quality problems (and because of the difficulty of getting free spectrum).  Cell phones have larger screens, a good number of them have touchscreens (a la Apple's new iPhone, which is around but was never a big hit).  But in the end they're still mostly phones.

Medically, nothing too different, though as Mike said probably some more effective treatments for some things.  As to GM foods, maybe some more, maybe not (depends upon Europe, mostly).  Maybe cloned farm animals have started becoming big (e.g. clone your prize milk producing cow so that you have 1000 of her).  Hybrid car use goes up, and even non-hybrids are more fuel efficient (higher gas prices have made car makers put more of engine efficiency gains into fuel efficiency instead of engine power).  The first plug-in hybrids have shown up.  Hydrogen still won't work, and ethanol use is up, though it's becoming clear that ethanol is not an answer (you need to eat the food you grow too), just something which helps a bit.

The developing world remains developing technologically.5-10 years behind the developed world for the most part, though in more prosperous parts of the developing world, wireless broadband will find a place (it's much cheaper than laying down wires).  Cell phones continue to be big in the developing world.

And that's all that came to mind before I stopped thinking about it.  :)

Dan


----- Original Message ----
From: Michael Downey <michael.michaeldowney at gmail.com>
To: war at esteroic.com
Sent: Tuesday, January 30, 2007 3:07:19 PM
Subject: Re: [War] Timeline thinking


I don't see a huge change in technology. Computer availability will
probably be more widespread, more hybrid cars, more Internet access.
Perhaps we'll see more effective treatment for diseases like AIDS and
cancer? More GMO foods?

On 1/30/07, pentaj2 at scranton.edu <pentaj2 at scranton.edu> wrote:
> Okay. Moving on.
>
> Tech. Futurecast, the next 6 years, what do people see as the
> technological developments that'll hit?
>
> Dan? Anybody?
>
> If you can see this, feel free to comment.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michael Downey <michael.michaeldowney at gmail.com>
> Date: Tuesday, January 30, 2007 1:23 pm
> Subject: Re: [War] Timeline thinking
>
> > Sounds good.
> >
> > On 1/30/07, pentaj2 at scranton.edu <pentaj2 at scranton.edu> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Michael Downey <michael.michaeldowney at gmail.com>
> > > Date: Tuesday, January 30, 2007 12:15 pm
> > > Subject: Re: [War] Timeline thinking
> > >
> > > > Barring some changed to a few more countries, perhaps we
> > should talk
> > > > about the economy of the future timeline?
> > > >
> > > > I'm thinking that we increase ever nation's GDP by about 15% for
> > > 2013.
> > >
> > > That would mean (from 2001) about 12 years of uninterrupted growth.
> > > Let's say...8%, with a recession around 2010.
> > >
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