[War] Timeline thinking

[Michael Downey]

I'm not clear as to your comments on NK and India.



On 1/28/07, pentaj2 at scranton.edu <pentaj2 at scranton.edu> wrote:
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michael Downey <michael.michaeldowney at gmail.com>
> Date: Sunday, January 28, 2007 4:34 pm
> Subject: Re: [War] Timeline thinking
>
> > Here is my idea for Asia:
> >
> > China: The PRC is now regarded as an economic and military
> superpower,
> > though is still kept in check by superior US technology and the
> > carriers of the USN Pacific Fleet, which the PLAN lacks. Taiwan still
> > remains the ROC, though Taipei is becoming nervous due to the extreme
> > strength of the mainland military. Domestically, the Chinese middle
> > class has grown by a significant amount. The CCP is finding it
> > hard to
> > maintain its total grip on political power, due to the demands for
> > better representation from the middle class and their own
> > unwillingness to conduct a hard crackdown. China also hasn't made the
> > same efforts as the Western nations to end their dependence on oil,
> > which is starting to slow down their economy.
>
> Good, but I'm reminded of the riots and other disturbances the NYT
> reports practically weekly. Perhaps a bit more instability? Oh, yes,
> and what about the gender imbalance?
>
> > Japan: Closer trade ties with China have boosted Japan out of the
> > slump their economy faced when the bubble burst, but there is
> > still a
> > great deal of lingering distrust between the two nations. Calls are
> > being made to beef up the JSDF.
>
> Article 9 is up for fiddling -now-, as I recall...
>
> > North Korea: The DPRK remains in the same miserable economic state it
> > was before. China, Japan and South Korea, despite US protests, bought
> > Pyongyang off with enough money and food aid to destroy their nuclear
> > stockpile and allow UN inspections. However the difference now is
> > North Korea can make more nuclear weapons any time it wants.
>
> Oh, dear.
>
> > India: India has progressed rapidly as well. They are, militarily, on
> > par with the European nations but still aren't a match for China or
> > the USA. Pakistan has been rather benign and inactive over the past
> > few years, so New Delhi is in a comfortable foreign relations
> > position.
>
> Hmm.
>
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