[War] Timeline thinking

[pentaj2 at Scranton.edu]

----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Downey <michael.michaeldowney at gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 28, 2007 4:34 pm
Subject: Re: [War] Timeline thinking

> Here is my idea for Asia:
> 
> China: The PRC is now regarded as an economic and military 
superpower,
> though is still kept in check by superior US technology and the
> carriers of the USN Pacific Fleet, which the PLAN lacks. Taiwan still
> remains the ROC, though Taipei is becoming nervous due to the extreme
> strength of the mainland military. Domestically, the Chinese middle
> class has grown by a significant amount. The CCP is finding it 
> hard to
> maintain its total grip on political power, due to the demands for
> better representation from the middle class and their own
> unwillingness to conduct a hard crackdown. China also hasn't made the
> same efforts as the Western nations to end their dependence on oil,
> which is starting to slow down their economy.

Good, but I'm reminded of the riots and other disturbances the NYT 
reports practically weekly. Perhaps a bit more instability? Oh, yes, 
and what about the gender imbalance?

> Japan: Closer trade ties with China have boosted Japan out of the
> slump their economy faced when the bubble burst, but there is 
> still a
> great deal of lingering distrust between the two nations. Calls are
> being made to beef up the JSDF.

Article 9 is up for fiddling -now-, as I recall...

> North Korea: The DPRK remains in the same miserable economic state it
> was before. China, Japan and South Korea, despite US protests, bought
> Pyongyang off with enough money and food aid to destroy their nuclear
> stockpile and allow UN inspections. However the difference now is
> North Korea can make more nuclear weapons any time it wants.

Oh, dear.

> India: India has progressed rapidly as well. They are, militarily, on
> par with the European nations but still aren't a match for China or
> the USA. Pakistan has been rather benign and inactive over the past
> few years, so New Delhi is in a comfortable foreign relations
> position.

Hmm.