[War] Timeline thinking

[Vampi Digitalwytch]

Hmm...interesting....very interesting.  Exactly what I was commenting
on earlier.  Clears away current events that can change at a moment's
notice yet still grounded enough present time.

If this is what we go with, I'm calling dibs on Cuba now.

On 1/28/07, pentaj2 at scranton.edu <pentaj2 at scranton.edu> wrote:
> My thoughts, Pat Buckley having seen these earlier.
>
> Europe: Backlash of the silent majority. Things like the possible
> victory of the Scottish National Party in Scottish Parliamentary
> elections in May, the immigration problems on the Continent, and the
> like...Produce the opposite reaction from the populace.
>
> Not integration, Scottish independence, or European social liberalism,
> but the opposite.
>
> A return to British nationalism, reversing Blairite constitutional
> changes (Devolution, Lords "reform" (Lords reform is now tainted by
> the honors for cash scandal, as is the whole "PM picking peers", such
> that I could see a movement to return them to being the gift of the
> sovereign, but that detail is something to be left to any UK player),
> a smackdown of minorities, and a return to traditionalism. Traditional
> values, religion, etc.
>
> More "main parties heading right", not a surge in the loonies.
>
> I also see an upsurge in religion in Europe. The Muslims make the
> nominal Christians nervous...Who quit being nominal. A return to
> belief and practice in the historic faiths of Europe.
>
> Note. *Not* a religious war situation, but a reversal of trends.
>
> The millennials (my gen) having kids and finding the faith of their
> heritage, as an anchor in nervous times.
>
> ---
> Religion: Benedict XVI gets the Elixir of Long Life. He's still
> around. And still healthier mentally and physically than lots of
> people 2 decades younger. Don't get me wrong, he's still 85 years old
> as of January 2013...But he's a -damn- healthy 85. No hints of
> cognitive difficulties. He's slowing down, but still is fully mobile
> and physically able.
>
> ---
> Mideast:
>
> Iraq and Afghanistan have democratic if shaky govts, US and other
> foreign troops are home, though the US still parks a CVBG in the area
> on a regular basis. Kurds wanted independence, Turkey (still on hold
> for EU membership) rattled sabers, Kurds backed down. Israel-Pal is in
> an uneasy calm after the Pals collapsed in on themselves.
>
> Jordan is stable, the Palestinian civil war (from 2007 to 2012) giving
> a convenient excuse for the monarchy to encourage their Palestinian
> populace to assimilate and become like East Bankers.
>
> Lebanon came -perilously- close to civil war in 2008, but was pulled
> back from the brink by Western and Arab help.
>
> Iran: I need help figuring out where this will go.
>
> Egypt: Same ol same ol. Hosni Mubarak has died, replaced by Gamal
> Mubarak, but meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
>
> Syria: No change.
>
> Saudi&Gulf States: No change.
>
> ---
> US: Iraq ended June 2008; opinions are still divided, but by 2013 the
> US military has integrated the lessons of the Iraq war and recovered.
> Afghanistan is over as a combat theater, and the US has learned from
> that, too. The ANA is now a 120-thousand strong fairly well-trained
> military, equipped such that it can hold its own against anybody short
> of a major power. The Afghan Air Force is small, but effective. Opium
> production is still a problem, but some creative work by USAID and
> NGOs made it something managable, not the massive issue it is today.
>
> Osama bin Laden was killed by US Special Operations Forces along the
> Afghan border in July 2010, as was Ayman Al-Zawahri.
>
> Terrorism remains an issue, as was demonstrated by bombings in Berlin
> and Paris in October 2010 and April 2011.
>
> Domestically, religious -fundamentalists- have lost power, but
> religion is still going strong.
>
> Politically: The Democrats under Bill Richardson won 2008 after a
> fairly blah campaign, but 2010 saw them chucked from Congress.
>
> 2012 gets left to the US player.
>
> ---
> Asia:
>
> I admit, I couldn't think up anything here.
>
> ---
> Africa:
>
> AIDS has wreaked havoc on populations, but democracy spread like
> wildfire in 2010 and 2011, as the AIDS orphans changed the situation
> drastically. Most of Sub-Saharan Africa is now composed of shaky
> democracies, desperate to prove themselves to electorates. North
> Africa is largely unchanged.
>
> Somalia: I have no ideas.
>
> Darfur: The genocide burned out by June 2008. If you were black, you'd
> been chased to Chad, where the government continues to struggle with
> the refugees, or killed.
>
> Zimbabwe: Mugabe fell in November 2012 in food riots. By fell, we mean
> Robert Mugabe was dragged into the street and killed by a mob.
> Brutally. On live global TV. The new transitional government is in
> formation.
>
> ---
> Latin America:
>
> Cuba: Fidel died in February 2008 of natural causes. Nothing really
> did happen, though. Raul struggles to keep Communism going, but his
> health is failing, and all signs are that once he dies, Cuban
> Communism will softly collapse as well. The question is, replaced by
> what?
>
> Venezuela: Chavez, meanwhile, has gone whole-hog South American
> dictatorship.
>
> Elsewhere, leftists were firmly routed in 2010-2012. Not for any
> wrongdoing so much as they didn't do what they'd promised.
>
> The religious resurgence is in full swing in Latin America, where the
> Catholic Church is growing strong for the first time since the 60s,
> accompanied by a popular piety in Marian devotion that caught
> Protestants, especially Pentecostals, by surprise.
>
> ---
> Pacific:
>
> Not much.
>
> ---
> More global things:
>
> They have yet to clone a person.
>
> However, animal cloning is being used in limited ways in restoring
> endangered species. Very successful with wolves and the big cats,
> though they're still endangered. Nobody is quite sure how to get the
> panda sperm necessary to try panda cloning. They've tried everything.
> The frontier is in endangered aquatics.
>
> Cloning is now widespread in agriculture, though strictly monitored by
> FDA and its counterparts.
>
> GMO was a battle fought valiantly by Europe, but to no avail. The WTO
> forced their hand in 2009, and by now, the issue is a dead one. As a
> concession, producing states heavily regulate the creation of GMO
> foods.
>
> Global warming got a big help by a continuing trend in the US: Hybrids
> for damn near every vehicle you can think of. Even hybrid semis. The
> one exception is emergency vehicles, where the performance difference
> still is enough to be an issue. GM and Ford, by the way, pulled a
> trick in September 2012: The first plug-in hybrids for the mass market.
>
> However, we have yet to see severely rising sea levels just yet, or
> other major effects. The ice caps in the Arctic even grew slightly
> over 2011 and 2012.
>
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-- 
--I know there are no lifeguards in the gene pool, but damn, there
ought to be at least a few sharks in the water.