[War] Timeline thinking

[pentaj2 at Scranton.edu]

My thoughts, Pat Buckley having seen these earlier.

Europe: Backlash of the silent majority. Things like the possible 
victory of the Scottish National Party in Scottish Parliamentary 
elections in May, the immigration problems on the Continent, and the 
like...Produce the opposite reaction from the populace.

Not integration, Scottish independence, or European social liberalism, 
but the opposite.

A return to British nationalism, reversing Blairite constitutional 
changes (Devolution, Lords "reform" (Lords reform is now tainted by 
the honors for cash scandal, as is the whole "PM picking peers", such 
that I could see a movement to return them to being the gift of the 
sovereign, but that detail is something to be left to any UK player), 
a smackdown of minorities, and a return to traditionalism. Traditional 
values, religion, etc.

More "main parties heading right", not a surge in the loonies.

I also see an upsurge in religion in Europe. The Muslims make the 
nominal Christians nervous...Who quit being nominal. A return to 
belief and practice in the historic faiths of Europe.

Note. *Not* a religious war situation, but a reversal of trends.

The millennials (my gen) having kids and finding the faith of their 
heritage, as an anchor in nervous times.

---
Religion: Benedict XVI gets the Elixir of Long Life. He's still 
around. And still healthier mentally and physically than lots of 
people 2 decades younger. Don't get me wrong, he's still 85 years old 
as of January 2013...But he's a -damn- healthy 85. No hints of 
cognitive difficulties. He's slowing down, but still is fully mobile 
and physically able.

---
Mideast: 

Iraq and Afghanistan have democratic if shaky govts, US and other 
foreign troops are home, though the US still parks a CVBG in the area 
on a regular basis. Kurds wanted independence, Turkey (still on hold 
for EU membership) rattled sabers, Kurds backed down. Israel-Pal is in 
an uneasy calm after the Pals collapsed in on themselves.

Jordan is stable, the Palestinian civil war (from 2007 to 2012) giving 
a convenient excuse for the monarchy to encourage their Palestinian 
populace to assimilate and become like East Bankers.

Lebanon came -perilously- close to civil war in 2008, but was pulled 
back from the brink by Western and Arab help.

Iran: I need help figuring out where this will go.

Egypt: Same ol same ol. Hosni Mubarak has died, replaced by Gamal 
Mubarak, but meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Syria: No change.

Saudi&Gulf States: No change.

---
US: Iraq ended June 2008; opinions are still divided, but by 2013 the 
US military has integrated the lessons of the Iraq war and recovered. 
Afghanistan is over as a combat theater, and the US has learned from 
that, too. The ANA is now a 120-thousand strong fairly well-trained 
military, equipped such that it can hold its own against anybody short 
of a major power. The Afghan Air Force is small, but effective. Opium 
production is still a problem, but some creative work by USAID and 
NGOs made it something managable, not the massive issue it is today.

Osama bin Laden was killed by US Special Operations Forces along the 
Afghan border in July 2010, as was Ayman Al-Zawahri.

Terrorism remains an issue, as was demonstrated by bombings in Berlin 
and Paris in October 2010 and April 2011.

Domestically, religious -fundamentalists- have lost power, but 
religion is still going strong.

Politically: The Democrats under Bill Richardson won 2008 after a 
fairly blah campaign, but 2010 saw them chucked from Congress.

2012 gets left to the US player.

---
Asia:

I admit, I couldn't think up anything here.

---
Africa:

AIDS has wreaked havoc on populations, but democracy spread like 
wildfire in 2010 and 2011, as the AIDS orphans changed the situation 
drastically. Most of Sub-Saharan Africa is now composed of shaky 
democracies, desperate to prove themselves to electorates. North 
Africa is largely unchanged.

Somalia: I have no ideas.

Darfur: The genocide burned out by June 2008. If you were black, you'd 
been chased to Chad, where the government continues to struggle with 
the refugees, or killed.

Zimbabwe: Mugabe fell in November 2012 in food riots. By fell, we mean 
Robert Mugabe was dragged into the street and killed by a mob. 
Brutally. On live global TV. The new transitional government is in 
formation.

---
Latin America:

Cuba: Fidel died in February 2008 of natural causes. Nothing really 
did happen, though. Raul struggles to keep Communism going, but his 
health is failing, and all signs are that once he dies, Cuban 
Communism will softly collapse as well. The question is, replaced by 
what?

Venezuela: Chavez, meanwhile, has gone whole-hog South American 
dictatorship.

Elsewhere, leftists were firmly routed in 2010-2012. Not for any 
wrongdoing so much as they didn't do what they'd promised.

The religious resurgence is in full swing in Latin America, where the 
Catholic Church is growing strong for the first time since the 60s, 
accompanied by a popular piety in Marian devotion that caught 
Protestants, especially Pentecostals, by surprise.

---
Pacific:

Not much.

---
More global things:

They have yet to clone a person.

However, animal cloning is being used in limited ways in restoring 
endangered species. Very successful with wolves and the big cats, 
though they're still endangered. Nobody is quite sure how to get the 
panda sperm necessary to try panda cloning. They've tried everything. 
The frontier is in endangered aquatics.

Cloning is now widespread in agriculture, though strictly monitored by 
FDA and its counterparts.

GMO was a battle fought valiantly by Europe, but to no avail. The WTO 
forced their hand in 2009, and by now, the issue is a dead one. As a 
concession, producing states heavily regulate the creation of GMO 
foods.

Global warming got a big help by a continuing trend in the US: Hybrids 
for damn near every vehicle you can think of. Even hybrid semis. The 
one exception is emergency vehicles, where the performance difference 
still is enough to be an issue. GM and Ford, by the way, pulled a 
trick in September 2012: The first plug-in hybrids for the mass market.

However, we have yet to see severely rising sea levels just yet, or 
other major effects. The ice caps in the Arctic even grew slightly 
over 2011 and 2012.