[War] France 2013

[Daniel Garcia]

Leader: President Zoé Ampère
Party/Alliance: Union for a Popular Movement, UMP
Recent History:

Politics:
Nicholas Sarkozy easily won the 2007 Presidential elections, Royal's  
gaffes having been too numerous and too politically opportunist for  
even the French electorate.  Shortly after taking office, major riots  
in the ghettoes of France were sparked by an incident similar to the  
one which sparked the fall 2005 riots.  The result was a crackdown on  
minorities, primarily those of African or Muslim descent.  In  
December 2007, things reached a head when a man of Algerian descent  
variously, widely, but not concretely linked to various radical  
Islamist terrorist organizations, assassinated President Sarkozy.   
Elections in January brought Robert Legrand, who by various accounts  
was on the right of the UMP, on a platform of cracking down on  
immigration and the "non-French" communities.

The next two years saw heavy persecution of minorities in France,  
with discrimination in employment and social benefits running rampant  
and uncontrolled.  The budget for social housing for members of the  
French ethnic ghettoes was more or less completely cut, and the  
African and Muslim minorities became even more estranged.  A good  
number left France for other members of the EU (particularly those  
holding French citizenship).  Some of the more recent arrivals  
returned home, feeling that they wouldn't be received well anywhere  
else in Europe either.

This trend was finally halted when on November 11, 2009, during a  
bread riot by various youths of African and Muslim descent in the  
suburbs of Paris when the police opened fire on a large group of  
rioters.  There were at least a hundred deaths, and the number of  
wounded was never counted.  Footage of the shooting was caught, and  
while not broadcasted, was widely disseminated through the internet.   
The image of very thin, very young people covered in blood-stained  
snow came to haunt the remainder of the President's term.  There was  
a sympathetic and immediate reaction, with the government falling  
within days.  There were also judicial inquiries with many members of  
the police being found guilty of gross misconduct, though in the end  
no member of government was charged with any crime.  The position of  
minorities in France has not improved much in the aftermath, and  
discrimination has only slowly come under control.

The remainder of President Legrand's term in office was beset by  
political instability.  The longest lasting government between  
November 2009 and the Presidential elections of January 2013 was that  
of de Villepin from March 2010 to September 2010, which was brought  
down by the economic situation.  This was followed by a Socialist  
government, which only made the economic situation worse by raising  
taxes in order to cut the budget deficit.  In early April of 2011,  
exacerbating the political, social, and economic troubles of recent  
years, foreign radical Islamist terrorists struck multiple metro  
stations in Paris during the evening rush hour, killing several  
hundred and maiming hundreds more.  Coming as it did during a  
caretaker government, which collapsed in the aftermath of the  
attacks, the attacks helped continue the fragile political situation,  
indeed leading to the shortest government during this period (it  
lasted two weeks between the fall of the original caretaker  
government and elections).  By the end of his term, even though the  
Parliament was under the control of the UMP, Legrand found himself in  
a state of effective cohabitation, clinging desperately to the  
trappings and remaining slivers of power.  This largely resulted in  
political stalemate between the UMP, the Socialists, and the  
President, who while obviously at the end of his political career  
still possessed the not inconsiderable powers of the Presidency.

The Presidential election was shaping by a more or less three horse  
race (Le Pen having died shortly before the shootings of November  
2009, at a peak of power, influence, and popularity) between leftist  
Socialist Party candidate François Hollande, liberal UMP candidate  
Zoé Ampère, and centrist UDF head François Bayrou by the late summer  
and early autumn of 2012, with the first two being the dominant  
candidates.  However, at this point, Bayrou's fortune's began to wane  
as the other candidates increasingly polarized the debate, making  
Bayrou look somewhat out of touch though leaving him as a possible  
king- (or queen-) maker.

France had been slow to come out of the global recession of  
2010-2011, and had been weak economically for a few years before that  
on account of the political problems.  Hollande campaigned on a  
platform of the retrenchment of socialism, citing the recent hard  
times and longer economic malaise.  On the other side, Ampère, who  
had risen to prominence in the aftermath of November 2009, campaigned  
on a decidedly liberal agenda (liberal in the economic and European  
sense), pushing the tie between economic liberty and social liberty.   
The result was a knock-down, bang-up fight based around ideology more  
than policy, reflecting France in a soul-searching state.  In the  
end, Ampère won the election due both to her own positive, feel-good  
appeal, a damning debate exchange between her and Hollande in which  
Ampère maneuvered Hollande into praising the civil service highly,  
despite the recent troubles which had shown the civil service in a  
less than auspicious light, and concerns about the influence of  
Hollande's somewhat unpopular partner Ségolène Royal, who lost to  
Sarkozy in the 2007 Presidential election which is increasingly seen  
as an important touchstone in recent French political history.

While Ampère's margin of victory was somewhat thin (which some have  
attributed to anxieties surrounding having a female President), the  
UMP's victory in a roughly concurrent Parliamentary race was more  
convincing.  It seems that most of the French populace has embraced  
(or, given the somewhat tired and exhausted state of the nation,  
accepted the necessity for) liberal economic reforms which would even  
touch the state's welfare programs.

Economics:
After a reasonably good year in 2007, chalking up 2.4% growth.   
However, in the aftermath of President Sarkozy's assassination, the  
French economy entered a period of stagnation and recession.  Partly  
this was due to globalization, but mostly the problem was the  
political instability between 2007 and 2013.  Real GDP growth did not  
exceed 0.5% in either 2008 or 2009, and in 2010 and 2011 was slightly  
negative, returning to about 0.3% in 2012.  This led to the official  
unemployment rate jumping to over 12%.  Also, with the revenue  
troubles a recession brings, and the high cost of social programs,  
the French debt to GDP ratio skyrocketed to over 78% by the start of  
2013 (from just under 65% in 2006).

Military:
As France was largely preoccupied with internal matters, and as  
Africa has begun to stabilize (OOC:  to whatever extent you meant  
when you said that Africa was democratizing, John...), the French  
military has been through some lean years.  Interest in revamping the  
military began to rise in 2010 and 2011, though the economic  
situation meant that this had to put off.  Notably, in the 2013  
elections, all candidates, to one extent or another, had promised to  
increase the defense budget to remedy what is seen as a recent  
precipitous decline in French power largely due to France's internal  
problems, as well as in response to insecurities in the aftermath of  
the April 2011 terrorist attacks.

Foreign:
The foreign situation of France during the period 2007-2012 was  
dominated by sour relations with the European Commission.  The period  
of French discrimination against her own minorities saw numerous  
cases make their way to the European High Court, nearly all of which  
went badly for France.  President Legrand's hard line stance on this  
issue meant that the Commission and the French government were  
constantly fighting over this issue.  The political instability in  
France also weakened her relative to the other members of the EU,  
further eroding her influence.  Moreover, as a result of the fighting  
on this particular issue, support in France for the EU (previously  
very high despite the rejection of the European constitution in 2005)  
began to moderate in many quarters.  Moreover, there were also high  
tensions on the matter of the French public deficit and debt, both of  
which are badly in breach of EU rules.

Aside from relations with the EU, the period of instability led to a  
lower French profile in foreign affairs.  This was somewhat aided by  
improvements in the governance situation in Africa, which allowed  
France to decrease her myriad of commitments in the region.   
Moreover, the French government and people still have strong concerns  
about the tide of international radical Islamism in the aftermath of  
the April 2011 terrorist attacks.

Social and Religion:
The period of political soul-searching was matched by an increase in  
private soul searching, leading to something of a resurgence in  
religion in France.  This in no way threatens the secular separation  
of church and state which is a cherished part of the French political  
system, but religion has become more accepted in the private lives of  
the French populace.  Indeed, this may be one contributing factor to  
Ampère's victory:  though herself not married (widowed) and not very  
religious, she was seen as more or less religion-friendly, while the  
distinctly secular Hollande-Royal "partnership" was something of a  
put off to an increasingly religious electorate.

The revival or religious belief in French society, coupled with the  
government putting a strong spotlight on the birthrate issue have led  
the (relatively high by Western European standards) birth rate to  
more or less approach the break-even point of 2.1 children per  
woman.  This has resulted in the makings of a small baby boom  
(granted that this is compared to something of a baby *bust*, but  
still...).

The Catholic Church in France, which was previously on life support,  
is beginning to return to health.  The economic problems of the past  
several years have, coupled with the increased religious devotion  
among the French population, increased the number of young men  
studying for the priesthood, to the relief of the Church.  However,  
as the religious revival isn't totally overwhelming, a debate has  
sprung up as to how much religion and the state should be separated,  
with the focus on laws relating to moral issues important to the  
Church:  abortion, divorce, and so on.