[War] Japan 2013

[Ian Martell]

Leader: Prime Minister Hiroshi Sakai
Country: Japan
Ruling Party/Coalition: Democratic Party of Japan and the Independent Club.

Political Landscape
The Democratic Party of Japan beat the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan in 
the 2009 general election on a platform of serious economic reform and the 
promise of solutions to the problem of Japan’s declining work force 
unfortunately the new government was hamstrung by a powerful and 
self-interested civil service and increasingly powerful labour unions, both 
of whom opposed reform. This caused the LDP to win back the Upper House in 
the 2010 Upper House elections.  However 2010 also saw the nuclear 
disarmament of North Korea and the negotiation of closer trade ties to China 
giving the DPJ new life. This was followed in 2011, by the election of 
Hiroshi Sakai the former foreign minister as DPJ president, and his 
elevation to the office of Prime Minister. His term leading up to the 
election of 2012-2013 was marked by a more international Japan that 
established closer trade ties to India and the increasingly technological 
developing countries in Asia while showing marked progress towards coming to 
an arrangement with the civil service and trade unions over new labour 
policies, which won them a slim majority in the lower house by forming a 
coalition with the Independent’s Club a loose alliance of centrist 
politicians who gave them the seats they needed to win to retain power.

Economy
The Sino-Japanese Trade Agreement has done a lot to boost the Japanese 
economy since 2011 as has the reduced threat of nuclear annihilation from 
North Korea and they would be in pretty good shape economically (having 
recovered early from the 2010 recession) if it weren’t for their dwindling 
labour supply. More of it is being made than it should be in the press, but 
it is now very clearly the deciding factor in the economic fate of the 
country over the next decade and the number one issue on the mind of the 
voters. With the shortage of labour has come a rise in power of the labour 
unions who both demand higher wages and oppose guest worker programs.

It’s not all bad news however; the tech-industry is doing extremely well 
thanks to Japan being one of the first countries to seriously explore 
alternative energy, hybrid vehicles and other increasingly common 
technological wonders. China is their number one market for energy products, 
hybrid vehicles are doing well domestically due to laws phasing out all-gas 
vehicles by 2015 and rigged emissions standards which have made it difficult 
for foreign producers to get a foothold in the domestic Japanese market. As 
a result they have been able to offer extremely competitive rates overseas 
underselling the competition. Japan currently dominates the Asian market in 
hybrid vehicles (outside of Korea) and has been using its influence 
diplomatically to lobby a number of south Asian and Southeast Asian nations 
to mirror their emissions standards.

Another tech area doing well is consumer electronics, with the developing 
world going more high-tech new markets opening up Japan has been quick to 
provide them with all the new toys they can buy as the have been doing for 
years in the west.

Defence

In 2007 there was a referendum held to change Article 9 of the Japanese 
constitution from:

ARTICLE 9. Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and 
order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the 
nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international 
disputes.

In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and 
air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The 
right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

To this:

ARTICLE 9. Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and 
order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the 
nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international 
disputes.

To ensure the peace and independence of our country defence forces shall be 
maintained in the service of the Japanese people with the Prime Minister of 
the Cabinet as their Commander-in-Chief.

The Defence Agency has become the Ministry of Defence and the post of 
Minister of Defence is now an official and permanent cabinet post, there is 
a new version of the Article being circulated in recent months calling for a 
role for the Emperor in the JSDF and for the article to clarify Japan’s 
stance on mutual defence agreements and peacekeeping.

Despite a steady increase in budget over the last six years the JSDF has 
shrunk in the number of personnel and has headed in the direction of a 
smaller more mobile force back to a stand-and-fight force as defence 
priorities have shifted from China, to North Korea, back to China again. In 
2009 Japan launched its new constellation of spy-satellites which are tasked 
with monitoring North Korea and most recently China. This program has been 
funded in part by selling intelligence to allied powers who are unable to 
afford their own satellite network.

The biggest revolution in the Japanese Self Defence Force however is a move 
towards robotics to fill many of the roles previously held by human 
personnel. Honda developed the X1 Amuro a remote operated soldier-robot 
along the lines of the Foster Miller Talon 
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foster-Miller_TALON) in 2008 which entered 
service in 2011. As well the ASDF has replaced a number of its aging 
reconnaissance planes with UAVs and the GSDF begun using updated Predators 
made under contract by Mitsubishi. These new weapons have proved to be very 
effective in patrolling Japan’s coastlines and islands and are likely to 
make up the first wave of any Japanese counter attack if invaded.

As for defence policy, since the DPJ has taken charge, Japan has not 
deployed abroad, however they do frequently train with allied nations and a 
transport helicopter company served in Afghanistan in 2008 while the LDP was 
still in power. The current mode of thinking calls for a focus on 
intelligence and heading off any potential confrontation diplomatically and 
economically before the first shot is fired.

Social Issues

Japan has as a reaction to the rest of the world moving towards a feeling of 
stricter religious adherence has moved closer to their core values as well. 
Shinto shrines saw record attendance for celebrations at new years and the 
Buddhist New Komeito party saw increased support in recent elections. Also 
aging Emperor Akihito is enjoying increased popularity as are more 
traditional Japanese arts and domestically produced entertainment.

At the same time there has been an increase of inter-ethnic marriage in 
Japan’s professional class, with many Japanese women marrying western men 
who they see as being more understanding about them having a career and 
Japanese businessmen marrying women from China, who they see as being more 
‘traditional’. On-line matchmaking has become a growth industry as a result 
and caused some serious concern from the older generation about the future 
of the Japanese people.

As for Japan’s existing immigrant and ethnic communities, they have seen 
major changes in the way they’ve been treated in recent years, illegal 
immigrants have been largely ignored so long as they’re working, and the 
Japanese born ethnic Chinese and Koreans have been fully naturalized under 
the law and no longer require passports to move about Japan.

Health

Abortion has been outlawed in Japan as a counter-measure to the declining 
population with the mothers of unwanted children encouraged to put them up 
for adoption or have them raised by married family members and there has 
been a rise in women choosing to have children alone with donated sperm.

Diabetes is the big disease right now in the public eye, causing many people 
to stop eating rice out of concern about the carbs and there to be higher 
demands on socialized medicine.

Smoking is still big in Japan, and thanks to a large market and a general 
unwillingness of the Japanese government to tax smokers, you can still find 
a $3 dollar pack of smokes here causing it to be the most smuggled item out 
of the country and organized crime becoming increasingly involved with 
shipping large amounts of Japanese cigarettes overseas.

Foreign Relations

Japan increased its budget for ODA from 8.9 to an even 10 billion in 2011 
and it remains the first tool of Japanese influence brokering especially in 
Africa and Southeast Asia. Japan has continued to remain committed their 
treaty with the US despite increased trade ties with China and disagreement 
over North Korea. In general it has done its best to be a broker of peace 
between the two superpowers.

What has changed is that Japan has taken a more direct hand in the affairs 
of southeast Asia especially with Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia where 
they have been focused on aiding governments who are opposed to the spread 
of Asian bred Islamic fundamentalism and have shown interest in establishing 
a military presence in the Straight of Malacca for the official purpose of 
helping to combat piracy against Japanese shipping.

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