[War] Canada/USA: "Partners- Part II"

[Michael Downey]

"Partners- Part II"
President John Williams, USA
Prime Minister R. Leon MacIntyre, Canada
13 March 2007
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

"First off...Defense. The quote the Globe and Mail dug up this
morning...Well, perhaps that was a bit bombastic, but I'm forced to
agree with the sentiment," Williams said, taking a sip of his
Coke. "Granted, you didn't try the German trick of 'Sure, have
troops...But only if they never get shot at or put in harm's way'.
Instead, the Canadian public began noticing that, oh yeah, the enemy
is not shooting back with Nerf guns, but live ammo that can kill
people, and immediately began howling that Afghanistan was illegal and
that all Canadian personnel should be pulled out." Williams fixed his
eyes on MacIntyre. "When I was downrange, I saw in CF personnel some
of the best warriors in Afghanistan. I also saw a government,
regardless of the party in power at the time, that tried to run a
military as if it was yet another jobs program or social engineering
tool, or as if it was a piggy bank whenever it looked likely there was
going to be an election soon.

"From a purely self-interested perspective, it is as if the Canadian
governments since the 1960s have -chosen- to be free riders. Defense
isn't the only area where this has become a sore point, but it's one
of the biggest. It's kind of...frustrating to see Canada not really
try very hard at carrying its share of the defense burden. If it hurts
to hear that, that's because everybody in this room knows that ut's
more true than it is not. That quip about the CF being the Red Army of
NATO should not be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"What I want to know right now is simple: How do you plan to fix the
situation? How do you plan to get the CF into a position where it can -
be- a credible military force? Just as importantly, how do you plan to
convince the Canadian public that yes, having a role in the world
means that you must bleed, and get...well, at least not shocked by the
sight of flag-draped caskets?

"Put plainer, how do you plan on being something other than the little
brother of NATO that wears and carries hand-me-downs and runs away
screaming at the bloodshed that is simply a fact of life on the
international stage? Because it makes us uneasy to have a neighbor who
can't convince their public not to faint or run away in terror from
the military equivalent of a paper cut. More people probably die in
traffic accidents every day in Toronto."

"I think a paper cut might be overstating it a bit," said Ingram. She
very discretely nudged MacIntyre's foot with her own. "Remember that
this was before Pakistan bothered to actually stop Taliban insurgents
from operating out of their own territory, and they had retaken half
the country before getting beaten back in 2009. Many Canadians weren't
just concerned about the casualties, they were concerned what the
casualites were FOR."

"I think we should focus on the present rather than bemoan the past,"
stepped in MacIntyre very quickly. A pissing match about who did what
when was not really productive. "As to your immediate question, how
will Canada carry its fair burden of defending North America and
living up to our NATO obligations.

"Well, where to begin? I am not a military man, so I can't really
begin to say what I can do to make people back home not adverse to
their sons and daughters being killed. One death or a thousand, people
fear casualties.

"What I HAVE done is sat down with my Defence Minister and Chief of
the Defence Staff and looked at some of the suggestions they had. My
predecessor did do some positive things for defence, when it suited
him in the polls. Breaking the CF down from a unified force back into
three separate services branches was a good start, as was buying those
four C-17 Globemasters for the RCAF. But when Afghanistan ended and he
had his majority government, Harper did what most of our PM's have
done; ignored the CF completely.

"I realize that we can't rely on America and Britain to shoulder our
defence as much as you have since the 1960's. We need to mature as a
military power, fair enough. I recognize this and I WILL take the
steps needed to turn the CF into a credible partner for the US and the
rest of NATO. But even if we do start pulling our weight, we will
still rely upon our close alliance with your country to implement any
meaningful defence policy. So my primary question is: what does
America see as a 'reliable' Canadian military?"

Williams grinned. "Ah, enthusiasm. Good. Yeah, so maybe the paper cut
line was a bit much, but it your attention."

Then, his face got thoughtful. "What do we see as a reliable Canadian
military?" Pause. "Well, let's see."

At this point, Williams stands up, and heads over to a cabinet in a
wall. Pushing a button, a plasma screen descends from a ridge in the
ceiling. Then, the President pulls out a pair of...gloves?

"New toy we found a few weeks back. A bit clunky, but we actually have
something like the gloves out of 'Minority Report'." Now, he's
grinning like a kid with a new toy.

The screen glows with the usual data. A swipe of the finger highlights
Canada's military budget as a percent of GDP. A few taps into a keypad
along the right wrist, and it's placed on a scatter plot along with
the same data for the other NATO countries. A gold bar runs up-and-
down like a first-down line on an NFL telecast, at 2% of GDP.

"Procurement is part of Canada's problem, but the prime issue is
political will. An easy marker, one I intend to throw at every NATO
member with a military - which excludes only Iceland, and maybe
Luxembourg - is the 2% line. If you're spending at least 2% of GDP on
defense, and you're halfway competent in management, you can field a
pretty good force at this level. Also, it's what we required of new
NATO members during the expansion process, and it'd be good if the
older members met that.

"But let's focus on procurement. Focus not on 'stuff', but on
capabilities.

"At the bare minimum, Canada needs, the way the Joint Staff tells it,
to be able to field a full corps in a crisis, meaning at least 3
divisions, and a full division for day-to-day ops. Yes, we're talking
a full dvision *in the field*, with headquarters and associated
elements. Why such an expansion? Because Canada should be able to have
one brigade anywhere in the world on ops, one brigade "on deck",
preparing for ops and available as a surge capacity, and one brigade
resting, reconstituting, and generally recovering.

"On the air side: A focus on recapitalization and expansion is
recommended, heavily, by the Joint Staff. How far you should take it,
they've left unsaid; but the idea I hearf from the Air Force
was 'Presume, for whatever reason, that we were unavailable and Canada
had to step up to the plate and fill in a gap. Think accordingly.'
They're not thinking B52s and ICBMs, but being able to lift your own
troops natively and have room to spare, and having the combat assets
to take over for a US Wing, preferably 2 or 3 Wings, in a crisis. If
you want to join in on the F-35, that would certainly be possible.

"Finally...Navy. Um, currently, you guys are a frigate navy. And not a
very big one. You want Arctic sovereignty? You'll have to step up and
expand.

"Thoughts the Joint Staff had for the RCN work out like this:

"8 submarines...Diesel or nuclear is your choice, but with arctic ops,
the bubbleheads are recommending you bite the bullet and go nuclear -
it's the only way if you want to work under the sea ice.

"They'd also recommend an amphibious assault ship. If you want to join
in on the San Antionio-class and pick up a few, we would have zero
objections."

The PM could not help but blink. What Williams was proposing was a 360
degree swing in Canada's military outlook and role. If he went through
with an expansion and reorganization such as this........

"What you're suggesting is to essentially make Canada a great power
like France or Britain," said MacIntyre after composing his thoughts.
"I mean I'll have to talk with the the Defence Staff and my own
Minister
for a more accurate response, but this is what I think with my limited
understanding of military affairs.

"First, budget. Two percent seems completely reasonable to me. It's
already close to what most NATO countries. It's what the Conservatives
called for before their own military program got mothballed.

"The Army: that isn't..... too unreasonable, I suppose. Although I
think two divisions of three full-strength brigades might be
acceptable as well.

"I really think eight submarines for the RCN is a bit much, especially
eight NUCLEAR submarines. Nuclear boats are very powerful weapons of
war, and having them in our inventory might send the wrong kind of
message to the rest of the world: Canada is the new tough guy on the
bloc and we're looking for trouble. We want to continued to be viewed
as Uncle Sam's nicer, quieter little brother even if we are becoming
more armed.

"Now I can agree that the Royal Canadian Navy is an area that the
Defence Staff wants to enhance the most. Because of Arctic
Sovereignty, as you pointed out, and to protect our oil and fish
resources in the Atlantic Coast. Our three Iroquois-class destroyers
are at the end of their hull lives, and we are looking at replacing
them either with your new Zumwalt-class destroyer or the Royal Navy's
Type 45-class, with a total procurement of four units. In addition to
that, the RCN is also considering replacing our twelve Halifax-class
frigates with fourteen of the US Navy's Freedom-class littoral combat
ships."

Secretary Abbot looked thoughtful, leaned over and whispered something
to the President. Unfortunately, it was in Greek, leaving everybody
else clueless. Nonetheless, POTUS nodded, then looked back to the
Canadians.

"In no order: I can approve a Canadian buy of Zumwalt-class builds and
LCS builds right here, right now. You will get squeals of *glee* from
the Pentagon and the Hill - foreign buys will make our buys cheaper,
too.

"Army: Two divisions *active*, or one active and the other reserve?
Given the way you like to have your troops work at a rather high
operational tempo, I think it might be wise to go to 2 active
divisions, with -at least- one division of reservists. Whether you go
for triangular or square divisions is perhaps a decision best left to
the Defense staff, not politicians. If you want to buy in on any of
our armored vehicles or other equipment, well...Canada will be allowed
to buy whatever you like from us. Only stipulation is that you meet
the same security requirements on protecting the knowledge involved.

"Navy: I agree with the surface plan, and think you might do well by
looking into having the Canadian Coast Guard join USCG in their own
recapitalization efforts.

"On subs: Way I see it, a six-to-eight-sub plan would do this:

"Split the fleet in half to account for Atlantic and Pacific coasts.
Within that set of three, for argument's sake, on each coast, at any
given time: One sub would be on ops. One sub would be available for
surge, but otherwise preparing for operations and training. One sub
would be in refit or overhaul. Adding a fourth sub gives you some
slack so that you have one surge boat either just about to go on
patrol or just coming off their operational period, and one in
training. Go below that, and you risk having to lose sub coverage to
perform maintenance.

"Now, on the decision between nuclear and diesel: Nuclear can work
underneath the ice. Diesel can't. Your adversary up there, the
Russians, uses nuclear. He can sail, fight, and hide under the ice. If
you can't join him, you've lost the battle before it has begun.

"Now, I know. People always worry about safety when it comes to
nuclear reactors, and rightly so. Well, so did Hyman Rickover. This
year marks 60 years of naval reactor operation. *All* without a single
reactor accident. They're -safe-," Williams concluded. "I note you
didn't touch upon your air plans. What are you thinking there?"

"It's not safety I'm worried about," said MacIntyre. "It's cost. Say I
go with what you suggest, a minimum of six boats, and we choose the
Virginia-class. At a cost of 1.8 billion each, that's 5.4 BILLION
dollars.
Quite a bit of money. In realty, price overruns have occurred that
have let General Dynamics price gouge the Navy for a 2.3 billion
dollar price tag. And mind you, the whole concept of the
Virginia-class was brought up when the 2.0 billion dollar price of the
Seawolf-class was deemed to expensive. So if you want me to build a
nuclear fleet, you'll need to give us a better deal to pay for it."

MacIntyre was no military expert but he did have a masters in
mathematics. Not that a math degree was even needed to see
over-pricing for what it was.

"As for our air assets, the RCAF's chief of staff tells me they are
seriously looking at the F-35A. It measures up favorably against the
Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale but is more competitive in
cost. Ideally, we are considering a fleet of 120 fighters."

Williams grinned. "Fair point on the nuke boats. Fair point in a lot
of ways. I recommend we throw it at NDHQ, see what they say. I am not
a naval engineer, and I would be unsurprised if the Joint Staff pushed
that for the simple reason that it would make our buys cheaper in the
future."

"So far as the F-35 goes? I think Lockheed Martin can be persuaded to
cut the cost by a bit, given your orders will keep the line open for a
while," he notes. "But I'll let you negotiate with em; we just issue
the export licenses, which are granted right now." It would also, he
didn't say, keep a *lot* of jobs at the plants that made components,
and the plant that assembled them.

It was good Williams was willing to negotiate on what America wanted
vs. what Canada was willing to pay. It also demonstrated Washington's
trust in Ottawa; to MacIntyre's knowledge, the USA had never exported
nuclear submarine technology, let alone whole boats, to anyone ever.

"Two active divisions for the Army and one reserve," clarified the PM.
"We already have a little over a division's worth of active troops and
a little over a divisions in reserve, so that's one full divisions we
would organize.

"As for everything else.... whew. It's going to take some convincing
up in Ottawa. I have to be honest, Mr. President, there are going to
be a lot of hard sells in my caucus. I can't make any promises. Not
for a few weeks, anyway. The Conservatives are of more hawkish than
the Liberals are, and are much more pro-American, so they might be
easier to convince. Or they might totally turn against me the moment I
drop a funding bill onto the floor to kick start us into an election
if the opinion polls turn against a military buildup.

"What COULD make things easier is that if in a few weeks, once NDHQ
and the Department of National Defence get a finalized draft of just
what they want to see in the CF and I can gauge the temperature of
Parliament, that you come up to Ottawa and make an address to
Parliament."

A thoughtful nod. "I understand your concerns on a lot of this. For
the record, I think the offer to export nuclear subs would be a first -
 We sent the British a whole reactor plant and the data to make more
of their own in 1958, but we've never exported a whole boat. Sadly,
though, no US shipyard builds SSKs, otherwise I would recommend that.
What I *can* recommend is that you talk to Naval Sea Systems Command -
they can at least help design you a new class of SSK, if that's the
route you want to go, and I think you may want to see about nudging a
Canadian yard into setting itself up to build these things. It'd be
useful to have the full complement of construction capabilities on
this side of the Atlantic, purely for insurance purposes.

"Additionally, like the British, Canada has a standing invitation to
join ANDA - I doubt the French will object. I'll leave *that* decision
up to you: The more, the merrier when it comes to this, but I can
understand if domestic circumstances would make reactor development
cooperation a bit difficult."

"So far as coming up to Ottawa: I would, in a heartbeat. Between those
in this room, however...Kayleigh's family has a history of difficult
pregnancies. This one, thank God, has been easy so far, but I'm still
cautious, y'know? I think she'll throw things at me for being -this-
cautious, but I still would want to check with her before I think of
*any* major travel," Williams concludes.

At this, Secretary Abbot speaks up. "John: She would, and you -are-
being too cautious. She'll be fine, okay? If she stays in DC, Calli
will keep an eye on her, you know that."

That got a grin from Williams. "Okay, that settles it; schedule
Ottawa. Only constraints I can think of are that Easter is March 31
for the Western Churches, May 5 for the East, and I recall that
there's Hill appearances in my subordinates' plans on the second week
of April."

"If we're going to go diesel, we'll probably just buy some of the
Germans' new U214-class," said Mac. "Brand new boats, not those
Upholder-class rustbuckets the British conned us into buying. Although
your point about Arctic operations and the advantage the Russians have
is well taken. In any event, I still have to get a reaction out of the
Defence Staff and Parliament over this whole military issue.

"As for ANDA, I see no point to refuse an offer to join. The Harper
government was too embroiled in the election to take you guys up on
it, and my administration is still unpacking its bags. I know this may
sound odd coming from a liberal, but I am fairly pro-nuclear energy."

He stood, offering his hand to Williams.

"I am sure you have a busy schedule Mr. President, so thanks for
meeting with me. I hope the rest of my visit with you here in
Washington is
as productive."

As handshakes were exchanged between each side, Williams
grinned. "Thanks for coming by, come back again soon." And thank you
for shopping at Weapons-Mart? Nahh, that'd be a bit too cheeky.
---

Actions:
1) Canada makes a provisional agreement to increase military spending
to 2% of its GDP
2) Entertain the possibility of a Canadian military buildup and
increased responsibility and participation in the security and defence
of North America, including the expansion of the Canadian Army from
one active division to two, plus reserves.
3) Outline a proposed arms acquisitions for the CF: Four ZUmwalt-class
destroyer, twelve Freedom-class LCS, 120 F-35A fighters. The
acquisition of nuclear-attack subs for the Royal Canadian Navy
(possibility Virginia-class SSNs) is also a possibility. Washington
will attempt to influence the defence industry to offer the CF more
competitive and reduced prices.
4) Arrange for President Williams to make a latter visit to Ottawa and
make an address to Parliament in support of proposed arms buildup.
5) Canada will join ANDA.