[War] Russia/China: "Cui Bono?"

[Michael Downey]

"Cui Bono?"
President Nemerenko, Russian Federation
President Hong, People's Republic of China
8 March 2013
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<Beijing>

Nemerenko was    impressed  at how clean  and  modern  the    Chinese  capital
looked. Of   course he knew China to  be   the second   richest     and
industrialized nation in  the world, but he  was    impressed   none   the
less. His motorcade's PAP  escourt   ensured  that  any  other  cars   or
pedestrians kept  a  good  distance, which   meant  he had a      virtually
unobstructed  view of Tiannamen Square   and the   Great  Hall  of   the
People, sans said     escourt.

"What   do you think would have    happened,   twenty  four years ago,  if
those   PLA  troops had refused  to  open  fire?"    Nemerenko  asked
Denemetov,
seated opposite him in the    limo.   They had met  up  in  Hong Kong   before
proceeding on to   Beijing.  "Would  China  have  been  hastened  to     a
democracy?"

"Maybe,  maybe not,"  shrugged    Denemetov.  "The  Red  Army  refused to fire
in Moscow,  and  some    would  argue  that up until four  years ago   the
Federation was  as  much   a   dictatorship as the  Soviet   Union."

"You   have me there,"     chuckled   Nemerenko. "Though sometimes I wish  I
could   as    easily  dismiss the  Federal Assembly as   Putin  did." This
was
to  be  Nemerenko's  first  true    test in  the international arena   and
would
have a massive   impact  on  his   presidency. The  outcome of    this
international   summit would determine  the    course  of Far  East   affairs
for the next ten years.  Everything   had   to go well,   lest  Russia    lose
out.

"President Hong wants to  meet    with   you  first,  before the main summit
begins,"   noted    Denemetov. "We  have  to be careful  in   this. I agree
that
a  Chinese success in  North    Korea is in our best   interests,   but  we
cannot risk  too much      ourselves."

"Do you think she'll   want us  to  become  more   involved,  other than  our
mere   political support  at  the    UN?"

"It's a   possibility.  Equipment  and funds  to  train the new   NKA,  maybe.
At  worst,      troops."

Nemerenko frowned. He hoped  not.  It would  be   a   monumental  task to
wrangle the  Assembly  into   authorizing  direct  involvement   of    Russian
soldiers in what was   generally   accepted as a   Chinese   war.

"I don't think  we  have   to   worry about that," he replied.  "They
don't
trust us  enough  for   that, as we've been over. At  most,  she'll  ask    us
for  some old  T-80s  and BMPs for the    Northerners."

"We're    here,"  said the   limo's   ex-Spetsnaz driver. As they came  to a
halt  a  FSO   agent   opened  the limo's   door.

"Mister   President."  a   rather    welcoming Chinese official from   the
Ministry
of State   greeted  each  member of the  party  before  escorting them  to
the
red
room,   also known   as the 'Dragon's   Lair' or  'Dragon's  Den' depending
on
whether
you  liked  the   double  D's.

Inside the  lavishly   furnished room,  replete with    handcrafted
furnishings
and likewise   original wall trimmings,  Xia    was  having the final  touches
put
on her.  It was a    normal  show of  vanity for  politicians in the  west to
look
as good in   front of the cameras as possible,  but in   Xia's    instance it
was
intended as more of a necessary   step to  hide  the   bruise on  her cheek.
Last    thing
she needed, or  wanted for  that   matter,   was  uncomfortable questions to
start
lurking up, be it    through   Xinhua  or the select  members of the
foreign
press that were invited to cover  this     meeting.

When that was done she'd  received  word    that  Nemerenko was on his  way
up.
Taking a  deep   breath,   and  sipping on a cup of green tea  prepared   by
one
of
her
aides,  she stood up to welcome the    Russian    leader.  It was a  sign
of
respect
after   all.

"Madam  President,"   greeted  Nemerenko as he  was lead  into  the   opulent
chamber.  This  was the first time he had   ever   met or  spoken with  the
Chinese president.  Some   pundits  had once    suggested that Hong  was his
rival,  but he dismissed that   as     foolishness. Russia and  China did not
compete  against  each  other     economically, indeed they were very   often
close  trading partners  and   the  brief  flareup in  military   tensions
ended when the bulk of  PLA  went  into  North   Korea,  thus removing  the
threat to Siberia. Now  that   they  had  properly  met,  there was no reason
there  could   not  be cooperation   between them.

"It   is  agreeable  to see you once  again,  Madam  President,"   said
Denemetov  with a  courteous nod to     Hong.

"The  pleasure is  mine, Mister President."   Xia  bowed  her   head
respectfully
as the two shook  hands  before taking  their   seats.  "And   thank  you  for
accepting our  invitation  with   such graciousness.   We  have a good   deal
of   topics  to
address, is  there a particular  starting   point  where you would    like us
to begin?"

"My  primary    questions is this:  what does your   government want or
expect from   Russia,   South Korea  and Japan over the  issue of    North
Korea?"

The  bluntness of the question certainly   didn't   earn the  Russian
President
any particular favor in  Xia's  eyes, but  at  the  very least he was being
open
and
honest,   important if they were  to establish  any  kind of direct  and
truthful
dialogue.  "As I've  informed  the   Minister, your  Government, and the
people
of
the  world   through Xinhua  on  various occasions, China expects,   nor
desires,
anything from the   international community   other than to  respect the
sovereignty
of the  North    Korean people, this includes  Russia, South Korea, and
Japan.
North  Korea  still exists as a separate  and sovereign   entity,  recognized
as
such  by  China, and clearly  given   this  conversation the broader world.
Any
and
all   humanitarian  and  diplomatic aid would be welcomed of course,  but  a
more...
'active'   involvement is not  necessary."

In a  certain way that  was a  relief  to  Nemerenko. Russia would not  be
put in the awkward position   of   refusing to send troops  into a conflict
they had  endorsed.  "That is  fair  enough.  Out of curiosity,  what
implications does  this have for   reunification  of  Korea? Japan, the ROK
and the  Americans are  starting  to  make a lot of  noise. I know  you've
already told  Denemetov  that you  will leave it up to the    'sovereign'
North  Korean government, but I  would like to ask what  you  will   say to
the South Koreans."

"I  would think  that would   be between the delegates from China and South
Korea    respectively,  mister President."  It was unclear whether Xia   was
making a
poor  joke, or being dead serious.  Without  batting  a lash,  she   continued
on.
"However if it  will assuage  your concerns, we will  repeat  to  the  South
Koreans what we  will repeat to you.  The  people   of North Korea   'must'
be the sole
arbitrators of  their   fate.  We will  provide what  assistance we  can, and
will
maintain  a   presence in the country so long  as it is  required.
Naturally
you
must understand  the hesitance in North Korea and   China  to move  too
quickly,
especially as the Americans still  maintain a   sizable  force in  South
Korea.
That will stall  any attempt  at  reunification  indefinitely,  I fear.
After  such  a
catastrophic  fall, North Korea is   understandably   concerned about being
treated  unequally without   sufficient   support."

Is this about the  USFK? thought  Nemerenko.  Very  curious. He began to
wonder why the PRC  was  all of a sudden so  worried  about the Marines in
South   Korea.

"Neither the  Americans, the Japanese  or the South  Korean  have much
faith in  your ability to build a  democratic  North Korea,"  explained
the  Russian President.  "They feel that, as an  undemocratic   government,
you lack  the experience or political outlook to  create  a  democracy  in
what was at one point the most brutal and  repressive    dictatorship in
the world. And they have also  expressed extreme   reservations  about how
sincere you are in  actually building  a  'sovereign' North Korea that  is
anything more  than a  puppet of  Beijing.

"Now before you reply, be  aware  that  Russia's concern is  first and
foremost peace and stability in   the  Far East. Whoever  controls North
Korea, be it you or the  ROK,  so long as  order is  maintained then we
are satisfied.  I am not as  preoccupied by  ideology  as other parties.
What  is a concern for  me is that the South Koreans   and the  Americans,
and possibly the  Japanese as well, will begin to   work  against whatever
plans you  have for North Korea if they  perceive  that you are  building
a  puppet state. THAT would  create instability and  possibly   even
widespread tensions  and hostility in East Asia.  Obviously   something
that is  against the interests of  Russia.

Nemerenko  gave  pause  to let Hong consider before  continuing.

"Of course  you are  the ones  responsible for occupying  North Korea and
ending   the threat they represented  to the Far East, and  you are  the
ones  who are now spending the lives of your  troops to   maintain  order.
Fair enough. You should have the primary say in  the   fate  of the North
Koreans. But how receptive would you  be to the   assistance  of the
Americans and the South Koreans  in helping build  a  democratic  North
Korean government?" He  then held up his hand  in front  of him,  almost
defensively.  "Please, before you respond  remember that  my   motivations
are purely for stability, and I  merely suggest  one   possible
alternative. If you feel you can  maintain  order and build a   democratic
state on your own, do with  the  North as you wish. Russia  will   remain
uninvolved."

Xia  blinked.  Were they 'trying'   to go out of there way to sound  as
patronizing as possible, or was  it  something Nemerenko simply  couldn't
control?
"With all due  respect  Mister President, it sounds  as if you've  drawn  your
own
conclusions  already, and I doubt  any words of mine  will change  that."
She
shrugged, as if it  were some  small disagreement between    conversation
partners.
"For  what it's worth, I'm not claiming to  be   'building' a  democratic
North
Korea.  I know as little as  you do   Mister  President in how the people of
North
Korea will  use  this  unique  opportunity.  They may very well decide   to
pursue  an
American style  democracy, or they may develop  a  system of their  own.  They
may borrow from  Europe,  or they  may decide on some sort  of monarchy.   I
can't
tell you  what  will happen, all I can say,  and  'repeat', is that  China
believes it must be  their choice to   make.  A choice  like that can not
be rationally made by  the   homeless, starving,  and sick under the
oppression
of  war lords
and    gangsters.  Chinese troops are there,  and may well be there for  some
time,
to assure that the North  Koreans have the immediate security  and lively
needs
met so they can  develop on their own."

"I have  drawn conclusions  about  nothing," answered Nemerenko. His fear
was that  the Chinese would   immediately paint Russia on the 'side' of
the  Americans and ROK, and  it  seemed that was what was happening. "I
want a  singular outcome  of regional  stability and am unconcerned how
or by who  that goal  is reached. I think we  can both agree on that?"

"I'm  sorry  Mister President, but I was never one to believe the ends
justify
the  means automatically, and will not start to believe so  now."    This
wasn't
getting them anywhere, she'd offered her  answer, it was  time to find
another
topic of conversation.  "Your  concern  for stability is encouraging,
however.
And in that spirit I  would  like to request a technology and arms  exchange.
It'll give us the   tools we need to make a smooth transition to a  North
Korean  national  government, and will enhance the security positions of
both
our
nations."

Nemerenko tried to keep the irritation from  displaying  on his face.
"Your attempts to turn my words against me are  both unnecessary  and
unwelcome, President Hong. You know very well that  I am not trying  to
insinuate extremism. I am stating that it does not  matter if it is  you
or the Americans that stabilize North  Korea."

Were he not the leader of a foreign country, he would get an ear  full about
him not being psychic and still professing 'her' thoughts to  her.  However
when one takes the mantle of leader of a nation,  particularly the worlds 3rd
historical Super Power, they had to put their own  personal pride aside for
the
good of the nation.  Right now the good of  the nation hinged on better
connections with Russia, so rather than go with  her first instinct to
elbow him  in
the face, she simply nodded,  bowing her head lightly in a symbolic of
forgiveness.  "My apologies,  President Nemerenko.  How do you feel
about the issue
at hand?   The proposed  exchange?"

Nemerenko felt he should run all the way  back to Moscow, stick his
fingers in his ears, and let China deal with North  Korea in whatever
way they wanted, pile of innocent North Korean corpses be  damned. Hong
was becoming subtly hostile with him /again/ and he was in no  mood to
have China pick a fight with Russia for whatever reason seemed  to
motivate the woman opposite him. However he was stuck in the  same
position of the good of his nation being linked to the good of  China.

"I cannot immediately promise military aid over North Korea," he  said.
"It is too early for the Duma to accept something like that with  the
occupation only just beginning. I can provide aid in the form of  food,
medical supplies and building equipment to help with  the
reconstruction of North Korea. Prime Minister Sato has asked that  I
convey a similar offer from Japan."

Sometimes she wished she had an old fashioned Louisville Slugger for  moments
like this, so that way she could drive home her point... upside  Nemerenko's
head.  "I was not seeking military aid for North Korea  specifically."  The
well trained woman kept any and all emotion she might  have been feeling well in
check.  "But rather general assistance and  offering the same in producing
next generation equipment for Russia and  China.  Both of our militaries have
undergone recent modernization  programs, and I believe there is much to be said
for the mutual benefit of  sharing acquired lessons and technologies.  That
aside, the people of North  Korea and of China would be grateful for whatever
humanitarian, non-military aid  can be offered to North Korea."

"I will have to of course discuss it with the Duma and my Cabinet, but
it is certainly a proposal I am open to," he said. China and Russia
were more often than not close partners in military development, no
matter how much one distrusted the other. "Is there anything else you
wish to discuss before the conference starts, Madam President?"

Hong shook her head. Nemerenko gave a polite nod and departed.
---

Actions:
1) Russia commits to remain uninvolved in Korea and not take sides
with any faction.
2) Russia will provide food and medical aid to North Korea in
conjunction with Chinese authorities.
3) Continue and possibly expand the military development relation
between Russia and China.