[War] US/UK: "A Long Phonecall"

[Michael Downey]

"A Long Phonecall"
Prime Minister Eckley, United Kingdom
President Williams, United States
26 September 2006
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Despite what the media and Hollywood would feed to the populace, there
was no 'red' or 'special' phone between the leaders of major powers.
When Eckley had wanted to call President Williams, he had merely told
his secretary to patch him through to the Oval Office and the call was
made. Over a specially secured line that was virtually immune to all
known forms of eavesdropping, of course.

"John," said Eckley as he heard his American counterpart pick up on
his end. "I have to say, we're a little bit miffed at you over here."

"Owen," Williams replied. "OK, fair enough. For the record, the
official response is not 'no', it's 'the file was waiting on the desk
officer's desk'. 'No' was the reflex response when we got nailed about
it at the press briefing. Our Iran desk officer at the NSC was tasked
to take a look at it, but unfortunately his daughter is in the
hospital. Psych admission. She tried swallowing a bottle of pills." he
notes. "So I can't blame him that he forgot about it, and I only got
your proposal today after I told someone to check his desk, just in
case."

"I'm...hesitant, personally. I can see the benefits, but particularly
with WTO membership, unless they're willing to actually live up to the
obligations of membership, we could come to regret it in the future.
So far as nuclear tech: I'm unsure just *what* you intend...Your
ambassador put it in vague terms. Are we giving em completed
lightwater reactors? Enriched Uranium? I never was told, and what we
have here doesn't say."

"WTO membership would be their reward for letting inspectors in," said
Eckley. "That is our opening hook. Enriched uranium supplied by the EU
would be a secondary reward for long-term cooperation and
participation in IAEA guidelines. Access to nuclear power technology
is a carrot on a stick, but realistically will never come about.  Not
for a decade, at least."

"Try two or three decades," Williams replied. "OK...Devil's advocate
time. With regards to WTO membership: Once it's given, it can't be
taken away. How do we know they won't play good doggie, fake out the
inspectors long enough to get admission, then slam the door on us?"
Pause. "Part of the hesitation is that, in the 60s, the Israelis did
basically the same thing. Let our inspectors in, show em a Potemkin
Village deal, then, after our guys left, resumed their work. Now,
they've proved sane with nukes, so it all sort of worked out, in the
end. I don't trust the Iranians to be similarly sane, it's really that
simple. Which leads me into counterthought two: On enriched uranium,
how do we know they won't take it, take the centrifuges they have, and
enrich it upwards?

"For all my poking, though, it seems like a decent idea; Privately,
I'm with you. It's just that I'm going to be taking any prospective
deal before Congress right before the midterms, so any holes are going
to be exploited in an eyeblink. There'll always be holes, but I'm
aiming to limit where I can get chewed on by either side of the aisle.
I'm willing to bet you'll be facing a similarly skeptical reception
over there, but you won't be dealing with legislators eager to bring
home scalps before election day." Williams, on the other hand, will be
putting this forward in a situation where *everybody* in the House
will be up, and a third of the Senate. "I'd like to *not* lose my
honeymoon with Congress, so I'm going to be nitpicky over the
details." Frankly, the chance to not fight with Congress til January
did seem really, really appealing, and it was probably evident in his
voice. "Although, given that we're going to want to bat this around
with your European comrades just in case we *can* get a united front,
I have a feeling we won't be announcing anything for a while."

Eckley nearly sighed, though managed not to. The White House had
picked the worst possible time to suddenly become cautious and gain
some foresight. "I understand we have to go into this with both eyes
open. I appreciate your need to garner support back home, and frankly
I have to get France and Germany into line as well. So long as we
understand that threats and intimidation have thus far been useless
against Iran and peaceful diplomacy is our only long-term option."

Short of invading, which neither nation had the strength or will to do.

Williams had to chuckle. "I can hear it in your voice. Inside, you're
swearing at me and wondering why I had to pick now to be the cautious
type. Yeah, OK, I'll grant that. Even without Afghanistan and Iraq,
though, military action would be difficult. However, nor do I think we
can rely on diplomacy. Not alone. And my confidence in the idea of
sanctions is fairly limited in this case."

He paused for a second, before his voice became eerily calm, and
deadly serious.

"Let me be blunt. If we could gather up the necessary targeting data,
do you think you could get cross-party approval over there for wetwork
aimed *not* at the political echelons, but at their researchers? CIA,
for very good reasons, is bound by laws prohibiting us from doing it,
even indirectly. However, I think I could get approval from the Gang
of Eight for feeding you the necessary info for targeting and
operations. That'll implicate *both* parties, making this impossible
to use as a political football if it ever comes out.

"We're not aiming to intimidate. I'm thinking quiet wetwork, poisons
and the like, more than anything loud and noisy, though if loud and
noisy is needed to take out a bunch of em, okay. The objective here
would be to eliminate key researchers, the idea being to slow the
project and scare other researchers off of working on nuclear issues;
Also, tighter security slows down the sort of communication needed for
scientific work.

"It should also, I hope, give us extra time to work things with the
rest of the EU and the Russians and Chinese, idea being to just wear
them down to agreeing to limited, very focused sanctions, such as
banning financial transactions with Iran, travel bans, an arms
embargo. I'd prefer to limit the civilian impact."

Eckley's blood began to run cold. He was very aware that when he
became PM he would no longer be dealing with purile domestic and home
political issues. Terrorism, war, intelligence, foreign relations, all
would be on his plate. He had been aware of that when he aimed for the
job.

However speaking with the leader of the free world about casually
murdering scientists to slow Iran's nuclear research efforts was a
heavy pill to swallow.

"No," he said finally after a brief second of thought. "The world
doesn't work that way, John. If we were talking about Bin Laden or
al-Zawahiri, some other terrorist, or if perhaps we were at war with
Iran then I'd consider it. But murdering, and it is murder whatever
way you want to phrase it, those men is wrong. They're not terrorists
or criminals, they're scientists. Innocent people with lives and
families. To take their lives because it is politicaly convenient for
us goes against the fundamental reasons we are in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Democracies do not behave like that. It's what seperates
us from the men who run nations like Iran, Syria or North Korea."

Williams was silent for a moment, as if chewing over his words, then
spoke softly.

"Owen...A brief question. If we were talking about an air raid, we
might argue whether it's practical or not, but I doubt you'd really
think about the *morality* of the act. What the hell makes an air raid
different from killing them with poison or a bullet to the head? While
I can understand your objections...I don't share them. They *choose*
to work on nuclear weapons and, frankly, better a handful die than the
hundreds or thousands straight military action would probably kill.
Or, for that matter, the millions that would die if these nukes were
ever used. I'm not bringing this up casually...Frankly, we're talking
about underground installations. Conventional military action just
*wouldn't* work; In some of these cases, the only way you could
penetrate to the depth required and actually do damage is with nuclear
weapons, an option I'm not insane enough to consider. Yes, that means
the Bush idea of "bunker busting nukes" is off the table. A nuke is a
nuke is a nuke.

"In terms of simple jus bello, in terms of discrimination,
proportionality, limiting just how many people have to die...Wouldn't
wetwork actually be the *better* option?

"I'd prefer diplomacy, don't get me wrong...But I'm not willing to bet
everything on it, because I'm not entirely sure it'll work. The
Iranians *know* conventional force, by us, is out of the question. So
I think, if we are going to actually back up the diplomacy with
anything besides words, we can't rule out the necessity for things
like this. Yes, it *is* homicide. I am not denying that. I don't like
the idea *any* more than you do.

"But to my eyes? Better one or two or ten die, people who actually
have something to *do* with Iran's nuclear program, than hundreds or
thousands die, most of them being people who have *nothing* to do with
it."

Eckley closed his eyes. Did the lives of the many justify the
sacrifice of the few? Did a small evil cancel out a greater? These
were questions that mankind had grappled with since the dawn of
civilization.

It made sense in terms of cold logic. An efficient and discreet
solution, in the short term at least. But they were men, no robots.
Democracies functioned on principles of justice and compassion.

"Tell me John, if you are so convinced of the rightness of this
action, why do you need me to be your hitman? Why are you hiding
behind Executive Order 12333? You have the power to rescind it."

"I'm not. It's something I plan on doing. Just that to go into effect,
every EO has to go into the Federal Register, which rather tips our
hand. Issuing that executive order is a big neon 'Somebody's gonna get
whacked' sign, and d'you really think the Iranians *won't* be thinking
it'll be aimed at them?" Williams noted.

"However...Your reluctance is giving me pause," which is precisely why
he had these discussions, because it was a useful check on his
more...calculating side, he didn't say, "so let's set that aside. It
*isn't* an option I'm ruling out, but rather one that, while I think
we should keep it in mind, we can take off the table and leave in a
pocket."

He paused then. It was a long, long pause.

"Thanks, Owen. I think I needed that smack. Iran is...frustrating me,
and wetwork came up as a 'eh, why the hell not?' thought, there. It's
an argument we could probably have for hours, but...Eh, no. Not right
now. So far as Iran goes: I'll give diplomacy a chance, but I think we
will need to consider options like that if it drags on. If your idea
doesn't work, or if the Iranians fake us out, we have...Well,
assassination, and I don't really think anything else. We're in a bit
of a nasty spot regarding conventional ops, an Osirak-style raid
wouldn't do anything, the Chinese and Russians would never allow
sanctions through the UN."

He sighed, then. "In short, if diplomacy doesn't work, we're short on
other options."

"But...OK, moving on to less depressing topics. Thailand. If I
remember correctly, a lot of their senior officers are Sandhurst
alumni. That being the case, could you have one of your generals talk
to one of *their* generals and give them a polite reminder that we've
trained them better, and that -professionals don't overthrow their own
government-? I think we can and should leave it at quiet swipes like
that, especially with the King endorsing the thing; Personally, were
it not for the whole 'we trained them, it sets a bad example to the
rest of the Pacific Rim - hi, Fiji! - and it really is not what one
should expect of a professional military in a democracy' aspect,
I...would probably just applaud, honestly. Thaksin *is* a corrupt
bastard, and...If, as seems to be the case, most *Thais* aren't really
opposed to it, maybe it could actually be a good thing, sad though
that sounds. The key is that they restore civilian government quickly,
and move to elections...Well, OK, ASAP."

"I'll do what I can, but I do not think we are exchanging one evil for
a lesser. The BBC is saying that the Thai coup leaders have banned all
political action in the country. Political parties cannot meet, and no
new parties or other political organizations can be formed. This and
the fact that the military is trying to pressure the Thai media out of
free speech concerns me greatly. We need to let the coup leaders know
that if they fail to take actions that we fail to see as fostering
democracy then they will be put under a great deal of negative
pressure from the international community."

"That's fairly typical post-coup measures, you know that. I agree with
your thinking; if these continue, I'll get concerned, and our
Ambassador in Bangkok will be noting today that we're both keeping an
eye on them. But for now, *for now*, I'm going to wait and see, and I
advise that you do the same. We've let em know we don't like that the
coup happened, we've said our bit, now we wait and see if they follow
through in appointing a civilian government in 2 weeks. If they don't,
we can revisit the situation then," Williams noted.

"But, OK, there's nothing we really can or should do there. Now,
Ireland, or, more precisely, Northern Ireland.

"My grandma's Fresh Off the Boat from County Kerry, and amidst asking
when she's going to see a grandkid from me and Kay - we're trying,
dammit, but this job doesn't allow for that kinda time! - she nudged
me concernedly on that point. Figures since I have cousins over in
Ireland still, I should at least make an attempt at the issue. I love
my grandmother, so I listen to her. More importantly, I agree with
her, on this anyway. Now, I know you and the Taoiseach are planning on
making a personal appearance...Would my also showing up help in
pressuring the parties, do you think?

"My gut instinct is that, right now, you may *dislike* Sinn Fein, but
the IRA's been good lately. They've dumped arms and demobilized. The
stickler is Paisley and the DUP, in my humble opinion; They've shown
no instinct to even attempt compromise. Paisley will probably write me
and the Taoiseach off as Papists, and you off as a Papist lapdog.

"Is there any sort of subtle pressure we can apply? Adams and Sinn
Fein, the methods are obvious. Paisley...Jeez, what sort of sticks do
we *have* against the guy? Does he *have* anything to lose before you
shut down the Assembly? Like, I dunno, does he have back taxes he
ain't paid or something? Do we know if he's kept his pants zipped? Is
there *any* way we can pressure him to the table and get him to
actually negotiate?" Williams asked.

Eckley chewed his lip. Blackmail did not seem to be the best method to
foster democracy in Northern Ireland.

"I somewhat tend to disagree about the IRA. I do agree they haven't
been carrying out any sectarian violence, but they are our top
suspects in several bank robberies and murders. Your more benign
criminal scum activity. As to the political parties..... well, I
neither like nor dislike Sinn Fein. Or the DUP, or any of them. I just
want the Assembly to WORK. I wholeheartedly welcome you to attend. I
will sit down with Paisley myself just before the meeting with the
Stormont Assembly and you, me and the Irish PM. After that the three
of us can try and work over the entire Assembly as a whole."

"Fair point on the IRA, but it could be argued the 'more benign
criminal scum activity' is preferable to, say, their previous.
Besides, criminal scum activity like that is a young man's game;
They'll grow older and want to settle down and have kids like normal
folks soon enough. So you get a crime wave. In my humble opinion,
better than what you had there.

"Re the parties...Agreed. Mr. Paisley, personally, is the sticking
point. Adams I figure we can batter into line, or at least I can
threaten him with banning him and his comrades in Sinn Fein from the
US and the fundraising and PR that provides. Paisley we need sticks
against. Without that, I'm worried he either won't negotiate, period,
or won't negotiate in good faith. He has no reason to, as it stands;
Why, when even negotiating is a political *loss*?

"But, anyhow. Let us know when you and the Taoiseach agree in terms of
the date. I'll keep my appearance a surprise, add to the shock value
in Belfast."

"Have you gotten the message from the Japanese Foreign Minister
regarding the suspected upcoming North Korean nuclear test?"

"Yes, we have. We're turning our satellite assets that have footprint
of the test site on to the area, and the DSP sats are being tested
extra hard; If you could post an officer in NORAD, maybe one attached
to the CF, it'd be useful to have a liasion at Cheyenne Mountain in
case anything does happen. Speaking of which - Next time you're over,
I think we need to think about the UK getting its own fleet of recon
sats up; as I look over just how much we need to cover on a given day,
I realize that no one country's constellation can possibly cover all
we need to, plus have surge capacity to have eyes-on developing stuff
like this."

"Otherwise, I'm not changing the alert status of USFK, though I would
suggest putting heads together with your counterparts in the other
parties in regards to UK support if we have to stand up the UN Command
again. I'm sitting down the Gang of Eight to advise both parties in
Congress regarding this today, and we need to tap NATO to figure out
an Alliance position. Including the French this time; I think we can
get even Chirac and Merkel to agree to not be peanut gallery on this
one."

"Speaking of which. Afghanistan. Polling all parties, what're you
hearing from backbenchers and pollsters? I know it's been difficult
for you guys, and the situation's been pushing me to ponder plans both
sane and...just plain strange in regards to that country."

"As you can understand, the MOD can't put satellites up overnight,"
replied Eckley. "But it is a strategic asset we've been looking into.
When the time comes, we'll probably have to get NASA to send our sats
up. ESA will get royally miffed if they find out what the payload is.

"As for North Korea, we'll follow your lead. Britain will back any
action you take, and I'll try and convince the other Big Three to
follow suit. I'm goind to have the MOD talk to you and the Canadian
Forces about perhaps a permanent RAF attache to NORAD.

"Lastly, I'm actually rather happy with how things are going in
Afghanistan. I know the road has been hard, but we've made progress.
Operation Medusa fulfilfed most of its objectives, and we and the
Canadians gave the Taliban a heavy trouncing. That and the extra 1000
troops the Poles are sending makes a difference. My only concern is
getting the other NATO members to commit more military strength."

"Oh, getting NASA is simple. We'll just shove you under the same
reimbursable structure as they do for our people; You pay their costs,
we give you the facilities and crews to put em up, and the rockets if
need be.

"However, for a bunch of reasons, I think we'd both be happy if the UK
tries to develop its own independent launch capability, with as much
help as we may need to give; For science work, military work, anything
and everything...It just seems like it'd be a good idea, especially
since, for things like rockets There are at least a few of your
overseas territories that could host the launch site if you don't want
it in Britain.

"But, yeah. Anything we could do to help there, just ask.

"Now, OK, re posting an RAF liasion to NORAD, that'll be easy enough,
just talk to Ottawa, I'm fine with it.

"Re Afghanistan, I asked because I saw the polls from Canada lately.
32 percent support the mission, 49 percent want to pull out Canadian
troops. We're not talking Iraq, we're talking *Afghanistan*. Unless
you think we can somehow pull off a legit PR coup that will reverse
those numbers, I think we're gonna lose the Canucks. Damn cowards; A
few losses to hostile fire and they piss themselves," Williams notes
bitterly. "It's good to hear that you, at least, think it's going
well. However, in regards to the rest of NATO...Somehow I don't see it
happening. Most of your European friends have armies that are
fundamentally useless, and most have publics that are terrified that
soldiers," he fakegasps, "might actually get *shot at*!"

"No," he notes, "I think we have to figure we'll be bearing the load
without much help. If I could justify it to the public, I'd pull
everybody we have there off Qaeda-hunting, post em to
counterinsurgency. But that's not likely to be possible.

"Not like I can really tell where one mission ends and the other
begins, anymore."

"I'm having the FCO court all the major military powers in the EU,"
said Eckley. "Go to them one by one and ask for more troops. But I
don't know how it will go. The French are acting very erratic, with
this whole debacle over Iran and then the Chinese arms embargo, and
I'm starting to think all of these foreign policy irregularities we're
seeing on their part could be a sign of some sort of internal
instability. The Germans are too afraid of losing men to commit, but I
think perhaps we can squeeze some logistical support out of them. The
Spanish and the Italians are up in the air. Maybe if we're lucking,
the extra troop contributions made by us and the Poles will shame the
rest of the lot into sending more forces.

"As for the Canadians, I want to keep them in the game. I know you
might have disdain for them, but 2000 troops is still 2000 troops.
They were good support in Operation Medusa and I don't want to loose
their backing. Now while we may share the same Queen, they're more
your cousins than ours. Is there anything you can do to rally their
continued support?"

That had Williams chuckling. "If we're cousins, we need family therapy
really badly." Pause. "Softwood lumber is in their court; They vote on
the agreement to settle that for at least 7 years soon. The cattle
dispute is tied up in the courts, and I don't touch that unless I want
a constitutional fight on my hands. Beyond that, the trade disputes
are quiet for the moment. Everything else is more or less cultural
clashes.

"On this issue, Ottawa has to be leading the charge. I can't be the
one trying to convince Canadians to send their kids in harm's way, or
we have people wondering if Canada's the 51st state again. The new PM
up there, though, is seemingly asleep at the switch, so I don't think
we can expect much."

"And the very least, John, you can call the PM and appeal to her
directly," said Eckley. "We need all the allies we can get. I of
course will make a similar call."

"I -will- be calling her, Owen. But beyond that, which I figure will
be greeted fairly cannedly, I can't do anything," Williams notes.

"The problem isn't the government, it's popular opinion. Unless
something changes those poll numbers in our favor, by a hell of a lot,
they're going to be under huge pressure to withdraw. I recall that the
NDP is already calling for that, actually. And they're in the
coalition up there."

"I had hoped the Taliban's heavy losses in Medusa would have been
enough, but now it seems it is not," sighed Eckley. "What we need is
another victory. If we could launch a second offensive that would
eliminate just as many rebel fighters as Medusa did, or more, then it
could boost the Canadian opinion that we will actually win. Which we
will, if they stay the course."

"Owen...I never thought an American President would be the one saying
this to anybody, but don't get fixated on body counts. We've been
there, remember? Little place called Vietnam?" Williams noted, trying
not to smile.

"It doesn't matter how many Taliban we kill if the Afghan government
can't stand on its own two feet, and if we can't wean their farmers
from harvesting poppies.

"At which, well...If Europe wasn't so damn opposed to GMOs, we could
probably find a crop they could profitably plant as an alternative,
but *that* is another debate entirely.

"We need to focus not on measures of how many Taliban we kill, but on
more basic things: What's the loyalty of the populace to the
government in Kabul? What kind of influence does Kabul have over the
provinces? How are we doing building roads, water systems,
infrastructure like that? How are we doing in training and equipping
the Afghan army and the Afghan police? What are their recruitment and
desertion rates like? What's their loyalty to Karzai like?

"Things like that."

"As they are always keen to point out, Britain does not always follow
the Union's line," quipped Eckley. "And given the anti-science
rehtoric of your predecessor, it had not occured to me that your
government would have considerations for genetically altered crops
designed to thrive in Afghanistan. If the European Union is afraid of
GMO wheat, then they don't have to plant or buy it. And since they are
doing little else in the way of humanitarian aid for the Afghanis, I
am more than willing to commit the British scientific community to
developing a viable GMO food crop tailored for cultivation in
Afghanistan if you are.

"As for the Afghan National Army and police, well, I have
trepidations. The Pentagon has showed a strong lack of interest in
improving the Iraqi Army, and I can't say you're military has been
very supportive of outfitting the ANA either. And London can't balance
training and arming the IA /and/ the ANA at the same time. I can say
for a fact that the Defence Staff would like a little bit more
material support from the Pentagon in that area. Not that ISAF has
been doing everything they promised they would do either. But the fact
remains if we are going to be concerned about the ANA's capabilities,
some people are going to have to be more willing to actually take
steps rather than just lament the situation."

Eckley let that one sit with the President for a moment. A good few
people in the MOD had become irked at what they percieved as a
disinterest from the DOD in anything to due with the IA and ANA. Now
he needed to gauge how Williams would react, and if it would be for
the positive.

That got an embarrassed pause. "I will not deny my
predecessor's...issues there," Williams replied, as diplomatically as
he could. "Let's try and put together coordinated shopping lists for
both of them, and...Well, rather than escorting convoys, I recall this
as being stuff the PMCs were supposed to do. I'll get the solicitation
out through OSD for bids on contractors to train the ANA; IA's
training will have to go through our own people until things calm
down, unless you want to pay for 300% hazard pay, at which point they
become more expensive than our own people."

"General Surridge has had some ideas for the ANA," said Eckley. "He
has echoed your ideas of using PMC, like Blackwater or ADS, to train
the ANA. The Coalition can be the teeth of anti-Taliban operations in
the country. For now we think the ANA should act purely as security
for the cities, roads and major infrastructure sites." Not that there
were many of that last one. "If the rest of NATO continues to shy away
from sending more combat troops, then we can milk them for weapons and
equipment for the Afghan military. They don't need tanks or
helicopters or anything fancy like that, but APCs, jeeps, modern
rifles, effective ballistic armor and helmets, night vision goggles,
etc." He then took pause and spoke again.

"Do you want to go forward with a GMO project to create a viable food
crop for use in Afghanistan?"

"Is water wet?" Williams asked. "In all seriousness, yes. Though I
don't think we so much need to 'create' a staple crop as find a
variety, GM or natural, that will grow better than the native
varieties in the climate, which don't grow all that well. And, oh yes,
we need to find a few cash crops they can grow besides opium, which
has a yield, especially cashwise, that's proved difficult to beat.

"Send me over Surridge's ideas. I'll look them over with the Joint
Staff."

"Right," nodded Eckley. "Is there anything else you wanted to discuss?"

"Not really," Williams noted. "We've managed to cover everything, at
least for now. There are ideas that bubble around here, like taking
your need to replace the SA80 and my need to find a replacement for
M16 and maybe trying to turn that into finding a common rifle for both
armies, if not all of NATO, but I'll wait to throw them your way til
they're more concrete."
---

Actions:
1) The US and UK come to an understanding of how to handle Iran
2) Both governments will put pressure on the Thai coup leaders not to
curb democracy or human rights.
3) President Williams will make a surprise visit when Prime Minister
Eckley and Irish PM Aherns meet with the Northern Ireland Assembly to
try and end the political deadlock.
4) Watch the possible NK nuclear test with great concern. The RAF will
offer to attach a permanent liason to NORAD.
5) Britain agrees to begin work on its own spysat program.
6) Continue to ask the NATO alliance for more help. Men, money,
equipment for the ANA.
7) Focus on training and equipping the ANA. Hire more PMCs to guard
road convoys and help train ANA.
8) Search for a GMO food crop that will grow well in Afghanistan to
help replace dependence on opium crops. Also try and find a GMO cash
crop.