[War] Japan: "Two Chinas, One Problem"

[Ian Martell]

After an e-mail from Alan and a bit of education on Taiwan, I'm pulling 
order #2 the rest stands.

>From: "Ian Martell" <martellian at hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: war at esteroic.com
>To: war at esteroic.com
>Subject: [War] Japan: "Two Chinas, One Problem"
>Date: Sat, 23 Sep 2006 11:36:31 -0700
>
>“Two Chinas, One Problem”
>Prime Minister Shunichi Sato
>Japan
>September 23, 2006
>
>“You know you three should just move in,” Sato quipped as the Ministers of 
>Foreign Affairs, METI and Defence filed into his office in the Kantei for 
>the third straight day in a row. It was that kind of week in Asia right now 
>that his ‘group of three’ were dominating the PM’s time these days.
>
>Takezo and Inoue laughed. Yubuki nodded. He was an odd one the Minister of 
>METI but he like most METI Ministers were chosen for the Prime Minister by 
>others and so Sato lived with his oddness.
>
>The three sat down. “So,” Sato said joining them. “Taiwan?”
>
>The frowns of the men around him spoke volumes. “The Ministry believes that 
>we can expect the issue of Taiwanese independence to take center stage in 
>the next couple of months, despite the standard denials in the latest press 
>conference President Tang’s replacing of China with Taiwan in his speech 
>will not be forgotten in Beijing and we can expect even if the issue isn’t 
>pushed in Taiwan the hardliners in President Hong’s government in Beijing 
>will push for her to flex her muscles. Which given the rumors floating 
>around about those elements calling for her replacement she may decide to 
>placate them by some sort of show of force. A large ‘patrol’ of warships 
>near Taiwan for example,” Takezo explained.
>
>Sato nodded and sat back in his chair and sighed. “These Chinese will be 
>the end of me I swear it,” he said shaking his head. “Things were going so 
>well…” he lamented as he only could with his close advisors. “But spilt 
>water doesn’t return to the cup does it?” he asked rhetorically before 
>saying. “What else?”
>
>“Taiwan has also ordered a review of their military and has gone to the EU 
>and United States about increasing their armament, likely in response to 
>the news out of Europe about lifting the arms embargo on China.”
>
>“Will that make much of a difference?” Sato asked Inoue.
>
>“Not really,” he said. “It will kill more mainland Chinese but if it was 
>just Taiwan and China, there is really no contest despite Taiwan’s 
>technical superiority.”
>
>“Of course,” Takezo said. “It won’t stay between China and Taiwan.”
>
>“No, the United States will become involved of course and that means we 
>will be forced to choose a side as well.”
>
>“The involvement of the United States in a war with China would, even if 
>fought with conventional weapons, would be disastrous. Land forces would 
>need to be diverted from the Middle East and likely cause the collapse of 
>Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran might take this chance to spur more troubles 
>between the Arab world and Israel and North Korea might see this as an 
>opportunity to strike the South. But that’s worst case scenario.”
>“No,” Sato said. “That honour is reserved for the world going up in nuclear 
>fire.”
>
>“They could come to see reason,” Yubuki said deadpan.
>
>There were smiles around the room and even Yubuki let himself smile a bit.
>
>“It is like us with Takashima or the Kuril Islands, they’re in this too 
>deep to see things clearly it’s not about territory but pride, history and 
>beating your enemies even if those enemies have more in common with you 
>than you’d like to admit.”
>
>“Then what do we do?” asked Takezo for the group.
>
>Sato mulled over the question from a few different angles before speaking. 
>“My first thought is to see what our influence can do to smooth the 
>situation over quietly. Yubuki-san if you could speak with our corporate 
>partners and see if they would do us the favour of speaking to their more 
>influential trading partners in both countries about the effects of sabre 
>rattling on the Asian economy and ask them to use their influence to reason 
>with both governments.”
>
>“Of course. On the subject of the economy…”
>
>“A moment Yubuki-san,” Sato said holding up his hand, he didn’t need his 
>train of thought de-railed. “Also if you can speak with some of the 
>Taiwanese buisness interests here in Japan yourself, make it clear through 
>them that Japan recognizes only one China however would be willing to 
>discuss peaceful resolution of this problem between China and Taiwan.”
>
>Yubuki nodded.
>
>“Takezo, I’d like you to add to the agenda for your meeting with Minister 
>Hollstadt the subject of how we can best help the UK sway the EU to accept 
>their proposal for lifting the embargo over the Franco-Italian one.”
>
>Takezo took that down on local version Blackberry to pass on to his staff.
>
>“Inoue, I would like you to hold a meeting with American ambassador and let 
>him know that it is our position that Japan will not go to war with China 
>in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and would like to clarify the 
>United States’ planned course of action in the event of such an invasion.”
>
>Inoue nodded.
>
>“Good,” Sato said. “Now, Yubuki, what did you have in mind earlier?”
>
>“Just that with the dips in investor confidence in China and Taiwan if we 
>believe a major crisis is avoidable this might be a time to invest in both 
>countries, when the situation stabilizes the value of those investments 
>will increase.”
>
>“I’ll leave that to you to orchestrate,” Sato said. “Yes, but later when we 
>know more about what’s going to happen.”
>
>Yubuki nodded as though the statement was obvious.
>
>“Thank you all,” Sato said rising from his desk.
>
>The others stood and bowed and turned to leave, Yubuki lagging slightly 
>behind so he could stop at the door with the others out of the room.
>
>“Our corporate partners, may I inform them of our appraisals of the 
>situation?” it wasn’t so much a request for approval but a rubber stamp.
>
>“Yes, but take the usual precautions, no written reports.”
>
>That earned him another mildly annoyed look from Yubuki. “Of course,” the 
>Minister replied tersely and shut the door behind him.
>
>Sato sighed and sunk back into his seat wondering not for the first time 
>since taking office if he shouldn’t have aimed to be the Minister in charge 
>of METI, the conduit between Japanese business and the government. Koizumi 
>was right you couldn’t do as much as you thought from this chair, not when 
>men in other chairs pulled the strings from the private sector.
>
>Sato got up and walked to the sideboard and poured himself a double of good 
>Sato-Fujisawa brand scotch before returning to his desk torturing himself 
>further with thoughts he shouldn’t be thinking in his position. ‘How could 
>I change things? How could I put this office above those of the Chairmen of 
>the Keiretsu?’ he sighed it was likely too late, he had in his rise to the 
>leadership of the LDP gained a firm control of the security apparatus of 
>the state and Takezo’s was the mind that shaped Japan’s foreign policy, but 
>the nation wasn’t the government’s or the people’s it was theirs.
>
>He sighed and took a hard gulp of the whiskey and enjoyed how it burned 
>down his throat and put the cup down and shook his head. “What am I 
>thinking?” he asked himself.
>
>He quickly finished his drink and paged the outer office. “Send in my next 
>appointment Yurika,” he said and got back to work, that was after all what 
>was expected of him.
>
>Actions:
>
>1> Use corporate channels to try to influence the Chinese and Taiwanese 
>governments away from their planned arms purchases pointing out it doesn't 
>do anyone any good economically to rattle the sabre.
>
>2> Make it clear to Taiwan that Japan recognizes only one China and they're 
>not it, but if Taiwan and not the RoC would like to come to the table with 
>China and talk this out, Japan would like to help them.
>
>3> Talk to the United States about their plans if there is war between 
>China and Taiwan and make clear Japan isn't going to war with China over 
>this and would appreciate American co-operation in making some sort of 
>settlement between the two countries now instead of when missiles start 
>flying.
>
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