[War] Japan: "Two Chinas, One Problem"

[Ian Martell]

“Two Chinas, One Problem”
Prime Minister Shunichi Sato
Japan
September 23, 2006

“You know you three should just move in,” Sato quipped as the Ministers of 
Foreign Affairs, METI and Defence filed into his office in the Kantei for 
the third straight day in a row. It was that kind of week in Asia right now 
that his ‘group of three’ were dominating the PM’s time these days.

Takezo and Inoue laughed. Yubuki nodded. He was an odd one the Minister of 
METI but he like most METI Ministers were chosen for the Prime Minister by 
others and so Sato lived with his oddness.

The three sat down. “So,” Sato said joining them. “Taiwan?”

The frowns of the men around him spoke volumes. “The Ministry believes that 
we can expect the issue of Taiwanese independence to take center stage in 
the next couple of months, despite the standard denials in the latest press 
conference President Tang’s replacing of China with Taiwan in his speech 
will not be forgotten in Beijing and we can expect even if the issue isn’t 
pushed in Taiwan the hardliners in President Hong’s government in Beijing 
will push for her to flex her muscles. Which given the rumors floating 
around about those elements calling for her replacement she may decide to 
placate them by some sort of show of force. A large ‘patrol’ of warships 
near Taiwan for example,” Takezo explained.

Sato nodded and sat back in his chair and sighed. “These Chinese will be the 
end of me I swear it,” he said shaking his head. “Things were going so 
well…” he lamented as he only could with his close advisors. “But spilt 
water doesn’t return to the cup does it?” he asked rhetorically before 
saying. “What else?”

“Taiwan has also ordered a review of their military and has gone to the EU 
and United States about increasing their armament, likely in response to the 
news out of Europe about lifting the arms embargo on China.”

“Will that make much of a difference?” Sato asked Inoue.

“Not really,” he said. “It will kill more mainland Chinese but if it was 
just Taiwan and China, there is really no contest despite Taiwan’s technical 
superiority.”

“Of course,” Takezo said. “It won’t stay between China and Taiwan.”

“No, the United States will become involved of course and that means we will 
be forced to choose a side as well.”

“The involvement of the United States in a war with China would, even if 
fought with conventional weapons, would be disastrous. Land forces would 
need to be diverted from the Middle East and likely cause the collapse of 
Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran might take this chance to spur more troubles 
between the Arab world and Israel and North Korea might see this as an 
opportunity to strike the South. But that’s worst case scenario.”
“No,” Sato said. “That honour is reserved for the world going up in nuclear 
fire.”

“They could come to see reason,” Yubuki said deadpan.

There were smiles around the room and even Yubuki let himself smile a bit.

“It is like us with Takashima or the Kuril Islands, they’re in this too deep 
to see things clearly it’s not about territory but pride, history and 
beating your enemies even if those enemies have more in common with you than 
you’d like to admit.”

“Then what do we do?” asked Takezo for the group.

Sato mulled over the question from a few different angles before speaking. 
“My first thought is to see what our influence can do to smooth the 
situation over quietly. Yubuki-san if you could speak with our corporate 
partners and see if they would do us the favour of speaking to their more 
influential trading partners in both countries about the effects of sabre 
rattling on the Asian economy and ask them to use their influence to reason 
with both governments.”

“Of course. On the subject of the economy…”

“A moment Yubuki-san,” Sato said holding up his hand, he didn’t need his 
train of thought de-railed. “Also if you can speak with some of the 
Taiwanese buisness interests here in Japan yourself, make it clear through 
them that Japan recognizes only one China however would be willing to 
discuss peaceful resolution of this problem between China and Taiwan.”

Yubuki nodded.

“Takezo, I’d like you to add to the agenda for your meeting with Minister 
Hollstadt the subject of how we can best help the UK sway the EU to accept 
their proposal for lifting the embargo over the Franco-Italian one.”

Takezo took that down on local version Blackberry to pass on to his staff.

“Inoue, I would like you to hold a meeting with American ambassador and let 
him know that it is our position that Japan will not go to war with China in 
the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and would like to clarify the 
United States’ planned course of action in the event of such an invasion.”

Inoue nodded.

“Good,” Sato said. “Now, Yubuki, what did you have in mind earlier?”

“Just that with the dips in investor confidence in China and Taiwan if we 
believe a major crisis is avoidable this might be a time to invest in both 
countries, when the situation stabilizes the value of those investments will 
increase.”

“I’ll leave that to you to orchestrate,” Sato said. “Yes, but later when we 
know more about what’s going to happen.”

Yubuki nodded as though the statement was obvious.

“Thank you all,” Sato said rising from his desk.

The others stood and bowed and turned to leave, Yubuki lagging slightly 
behind so he could stop at the door with the others out of the room.

“Our corporate partners, may I inform them of our appraisals of the 
situation?” it wasn’t so much a request for approval but a rubber stamp.

“Yes, but take the usual precautions, no written reports.”

That earned him another mildly annoyed look from Yubuki. “Of course,” the 
Minister replied tersely and shut the door behind him.

Sato sighed and sunk back into his seat wondering not for the first time 
since taking office if he shouldn’t have aimed to be the Minister in charge 
of METI, the conduit between Japanese business and the government. Koizumi 
was right you couldn’t do as much as you thought from this chair, not when 
men in other chairs pulled the strings from the private sector.

Sato got up and walked to the sideboard and poured himself a double of good 
Sato-Fujisawa brand scotch before returning to his desk torturing himself 
further with thoughts he shouldn’t be thinking in his position. ‘How could I 
change things? How could I put this office above those of the Chairmen of 
the Keiretsu?’ he sighed it was likely too late, he had in his rise to the 
leadership of the LDP gained a firm control of the security apparatus of the 
state and Takezo’s was the mind that shaped Japan’s foreign policy, but the 
nation wasn’t the government’s or the people’s it was theirs.

He sighed and took a hard gulp of the whiskey and enjoyed how it burned down 
his throat and put the cup down and shook his head. “What am I thinking?” he 
asked himself.

He quickly finished his drink and paged the outer office. “Send in my next 
appointment Yurika,” he said and got back to work, that was after all what 
was expected of him.

Actions:

1> Use corporate channels to try to influence the Chinese and Taiwanese 
governments away from their planned arms purchases pointing out it doesn't 
do anyone any good economically to rattle the sabre.

2> Make it clear to Taiwan that Japan recognizes only one China and they're 
not it, but if Taiwan and not the RoC would like to come to the table with 
China and talk this out, Japan would like to help them.

3> Talk to the United States about their plans if there is war between China 
and Taiwan and make clear Japan isn't going to war with China over this and 
would appreciate American co-operation in making some sort of settlement 
between the two countries now instead of when missiles start flying.

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