[War] World Report: July 23-Sept 12

[pentaj2 at Scranton.edu]

WAR: World Report

- For all actions to September 12th, 2006.

United Nations Security Council (Permanent Members): United States,
United Kingdom, France, China, Russia

United Nations Security Council (Non-Permanent Members):

Through October 1, 2006:

Canada, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Venezuela

Through November 1, 2006:

Mexico, Panama, Marshall Islands, South Africa, Latvia

>From October 1 Through December 1, 2006:

Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Nigeria, Romania

Pending UN Security Council Actions: None

Pending UN General Assembly Actions: None

United Nations Secretariat: No news.
==============
GM Babble:

Yeah, yeah, we took an absurdly long time.

Nonetheless, here it is.

John
===============================================

WORLD NEWS (Please review the following topics for potential posting
fodder):

No news this week.

ACTION RESPONSES
=============================

CANADA

Population Approval: 56%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 60%
Economic Growth: 3.3%, Low.
Inflation: 1.7%
Unemployment: 6.1%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

No news of significance has occured in The Great Frozen North.

=============================================

CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 58%
Government Approval: 64%
International Favor: 50%
Economic Growth: 9%, High.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 4.2% *(Urban registered. Estimated total varies
widely from 10% to over 20%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
China has been buzzing with activity, at home an abroad, and the world 
is taking notice. The Free Speech Zone Initiative passed through the 
NPC, to great acclaim by many human rights organizations and 
democracies around the world. The Chinese population is rather taken 
back by such a bold move, but welcome it as a positive. On the flip 
side, many in the CCP are making loud grumbles; they view the FSZ 
Initiative as a threat to their domination of Chinese politics.

Likewise, the plan to introduce democratic elections for local 
governments in the near future has met with similar responses. Both 
the average Chinese citizen and the West are thrilled, and 
conservative elements in the CCP become more and more displeased with 
the current course of events. The MSS even believes certain fringe 
elements would like to see President Xia removed from office. But 
those are just fringe rumors, and for the moment the NPC is going 
along with the President.

Israel and the IDF have given a formal apology over the deaths of 
Chinese citizens in Lebanon. With so much international pressure on 
them, the Israelis are biting the bullet and going along with what the 
rest of the world seems to want. Hezbollah, on the other hand, has not 
even acknowledged the messages from China. Furthermore, Hezbollah is 
too entrenched in the everyday lives of many Lebanese for a simple 
$100 million dollars to make them defunct when it comes to social 
services. Chinese peacekeepers can expect a very cold welcome from 
Hezbollah.

The PLA's contribution of 20,000 troops to the PK effort in Lebanon is 
looked upon very well by the UN and international community.

Hezbollah are not the only ones upset with China. North Korea is not 
at all pleased with what they view as China 'consorting' with Japan. 
Pyongyang feels rather betrayed by Beijing, and in turn has become 
much more isolated from the rest of the world.

Finally, the PLA has made it known that they are pleased the President 
has gotten the EU to even consider lifting the arms embargo. The 
possibility of access to the European arms market has earned Xia a 
great deal of support with the military.
=============================================

GABONESE REPUBLIC

Population Approval: 57%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 2.3%, Average.
Inflation: 1.5%
Unemployment: 22% *(Estimate)
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The world has been a bit quiet in regards to Gabon's request for aid 
in their educational system. Nevertheless, some support has begun to 
flow in through NGO's backed by the G8.

By educating workers to be more productive in the new world economy, 
Gabon has earned points in the eyes of the international community for 
making an intrinsic effort to improve the country. This may come in 
useful if further appeals for aid are to be made.
===============================================

ETHIOPIA

Population Approval: 59%
Government Approval: 58%
International Favor: 53%
Economic Growth:
Inflation:
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The primary issue currently facing the government on a foreign 
affairs footing is the stabilization mission being conducted by a 
fully supported Ethiopian regiment in and around Baidoa to protect the 
legitimate government of Somalia. The decision to fortify positions 
in the city could not have come soon enough, as the UIC attempted an 
attack nto Baidoa as a way of increasing leverage at any upcoming 
diplomatic talks. 

Company sized elements of UIC forces captured and held several 
strategic roadways nd buildings while three Battalion sized elements 
made a strike straight at the Ethiopian force, causing some military 
analysts to suggest it as a 'Somali Tet Offensive'. Like in Tet 
itself, the UIC units were defeated, one UIC Battalion suffering 75% 
casualties as its retreat was cut off by a unit identifying itself as 
the 1st Battalion of the Somali National Army. Fighting was said to 
be extremely fierce as the unit loyal to the current government, and 
their Islamic counterparts slugged it out for over 8 hours. 
There 'was' an attempt, largely thought a failure, at creating a 
Somali Army in the past... exactly where this unit came from remains 
uncertain, though current speculation is they are composed of tribal 
or militia forces who's leaders remain supportive of the national 
government. The name 'first battalion' insinuates there may be 
additional units, though that is also only speculation at this point. 
Final casualty totals were 36 Ethiopians killed, and 41 injured. The 
National Somali Force is placing its casualties at 85 dead and 112 
injured, and is requesting Ethiopian assistance in treating the 
wounded. Confirmed UIC casualties were at 375 dead, and roughly the 
same number is thought to be injured. The unquestionable success of 
the repulsion, plus the determination and skill of the Somali force in 
spite of seeming inadequacies, have some political analysts suggesting 
this may be endemic of a more concerted change in the fortunes of 
Somolia, national unity replacing old rivalries and 
sectarianism 'finally'.

In addition, some supporting evidence of a UIC-Eritrea connection 
was recorded during the fighting. A dock worker fighting with the 
Somali National Army claims to have monitored arms shipments to the 
UIC coming from smaller ships, fishing boats, and those vessels too 
small to, or unexpected to fly a flag. Weapons were by and large 
small arms, though it may only be a matter of time before appropriate 
supply lines to more advanced weapons systems are reached.

Ethiopia's other major military deployment, a brigade along the 
Ethiopian-Kenyan border, has raised definite concerns on behalf of the 
UN monitoring force and the Kenyan government, which in turn has 
deployed a Brigade of it's own to what it, and the UN believe to be 
the border... including territory that is 'sensitive' to Ethiopian 
grazing. Reports of shots being exchanged are common, though so far 
neither side has actually 'tried' hitting the other... the shots seem 
to be a simple effort to warn or scare off the other side. This could 
escalate unless an agreement over the area can be reached... or at 
least an agreement of who was able to patrol what area. Kenya 
continues to insist this is just a shameful land-grab attempt by 
Ethiopia, and already units to reinforce the deployed brigade are 
being rushed to bolster Kenyan defenses.

The expression of solidarity is seen as the only reason a full 
military battle hasn't been waged yet. As it stands, Ethiopia's 
declared reason... enforcement... is something Kenya had been 
requesting for a while, even if more peaceful means were in mind. So 
long as this understanding remains, it might be possible to prevent 
the precarious position from slipping even further. In addition, the 
grants and supported dialogue between parties involved as requested by 
the President add a level of correspondence that in time may ease 
tensions considerably.

The home front has been equally active, with the Civil Service 
being expanded and reorganized at the request of the Executive. 
Specialized Federal Police Branches for Border Security and Public 
Lands Security are being created, and recruitment is said to be high, 
allowing the services to select those they believe would be most 
beneficial to have on the job. The only problem are frequent reports 
of corruption, thus far minor, but spreading in who gets the better, 
more upscale positions. 

The Special Task Force on Agricultural Improvement is currently 
meeting, and has already recommended some changes which are broadly 
believed to be helpful in curtailing erosion. This includes offering 
training, either free of charge or in some other affordable fashion, 
to Ethiopia's considerable agricultural economy. Specialists from the 
West and Asia in particular might be able to provide valuable insight 
on current methodologies, and provide a backbone of specialization 
which could be passed on to the general Ethiopian agriculturalist. In 
addition, the government might consider instituting even some basic 
ownership principles, which would allow farmers to use their land as 
collateral to get loans to buy modern equipment and study modern 
techniques. Infrastructure also remains an issue, with improved roads 
and rails from the rural areas to major trade centers being 
necessary. All these measures are aimed at improving the life of 
Ethiopians and the viability of agriculture, which would assist in 
curtailing erosion. 

The reforestation and Animal Population Management programs are 
also underway, providing the opportunity of Civil Service jobs for 
even larger parts of the population... and leaving many to wonder how 
to pay for such additional expenditures. The programs are suffering 
from the same corruption as the police forces, and reports of 
favoritism are fairly common.

The international press has been more focused on Ethiopia's real 
changes to civil society. The Freedom of Press improvements... making 
the press 'actually' free is well received, although now deeper 
problems of Ethiopia are being brought to the surface, this is 
considered a positive as to borrow a cliche, the first step is 
admitting there is a problem. All people declared 'peaceful 
political prisoners' by the government have been released, though many 
are finding it difficult to return to their former lives. The 
election monitoring reforms are more worrisome, as there is also a 
level of corruption here on who gets the jobs, even if those who do 
the jobs remain independent. 
=============================================

INDIA (REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 55%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 9.3%, High.
Inflation: 5%
Unemployment: 9.2%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Samir Eswara's post as Prime Minister is made permanent with little
contention. The President's actions in regards to preventing a major
political disaster in India have granted him quite a bit of political
pull and parliament rolls over without too much trouble. Shri Montek
Singh Ahluwalia is also appointed upon the President's advice and
political sway.

The creation of a new Council of Ministers is also a good move, as it
shows both to Indians and to the world that the Indian government
is moving ahead at a healthy pace. Fears of some sort of deadlock
emerging have begun to ebb.
=============================================

JAPAN

Population Approval: 57%
Government Approval: 56%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 2.5%, Average, Picking Up.
Inflation: 0.6%
Unemployment: 4%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Most Japanese hold more than a little bit of fear towards China. By 
entering into several high-profile economic, political and military 
arrangements with the PRC, the PM has made the Japanese people a 
little less nervous about their powerful neighbor. Or at least begun 
to cause some to re-evaluate their opinions.

The AMC initiative and the reforms to the SDF pass through the Diet. 
North Korea has issued several statements that it will not tolerate 
being threatened by Japan. North Korea also suspects Japan of helping 
the KRF, and dialogue between Pyongyang and Tokyo is the worst it has 
been in years. However North Korea is even more feared by people in 
Japan than China, and the efforts by the military are a welcome change.

The new plan for student babysitting passes through the Diet with 
large support. The measure is far from a total solution to the 
nation's population growth wows, but it will ease the pressure on 
working parents and in the long run make it easier for couples to
raise children. Budget hawks are not thrilled about expanding the 
program to provide tax cuts to the elderly who participate in the 
child care initiative but a long term view has prevailed and the 
amendment is added as well.

The Ministry of Finance concludes that the maternity plan for civil 
service employees is feasible at the projected numbers, but more than 
that would put an unwelcome strain on Japan's growing deficit.

Finally, the visiting worker program is a very hard sell with many 
politicians and virtually all of the approached union and labor groups.

=============================================

KOREA [NORTH] (DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval:  42.5%
Government Approval:  65%
International Favor:  30%
Economic Growth:  1%, Zero.
Inflation:  N/A
Unemployment:  0% *(Actual unemployment estimated to be well above 
50%.)

KRF:
Population Approval:  55%
Cadre Approval:  95%
International Favor:  45%
Funds Available:  USD550,000
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Korean Revolutionary Force has quietly begun surveillance of  
North Korea's Yongnyon nuclear facility.  This reconnaissance has  
resulted in two significant pieces of information.  First is that the  
facilities on the ground, in line with North Korean practice, are but  
the tip of the iceberg.  There are significant underground  
facilities, including a small experimental uranium enrichment  
facility and an under construction reactor of unknown size which  
would considerably boost the North Korean plutonium production  
program.  The second tidbit was that Korean Revolutionary Force  
operatives managed to, by chance, over hear a relatively high  
official say that North Korea has nine weapons, six plutonium weapons  
and three uranium weapons, and is producing them at a rate of one  
plutonium and two uranium weapons a year.

This information has been passed on to Japanese intelligence.   
Meanwhile, the KRF has received the Japanese donation of USD500,000.

Meanwhile, word that China would open its border to refugees was  
responded to with indignation from the North Korean government, who  
promptly closed their border.  The result is that the flow of  
refugees will remain largely unchanged, with North Korean vigor  
substituting for Chinese patrols.  The North Korean government has  
called upon the Chinese ambassador for an explanation.  Analysts say  
the act of opening the Chinese border has caused severe and serious  
concerns about China's traditional backing of the reclusive state,  
which may lead to even more unpredictable behavior than usual.

For the KRF, the opening of the Chinese border is anticipated to  
provide two benefits.  With more openness in the North Korean émigrés  
in China, conducting operations, such as fundraising and support  
gathering, will be easier.  Additionally, with the additional strain  
on North Korean forces who now have to be much more vigilant on the  
Chinese border, it may become easier to sneak personnel and equipment  
over this border, and over the coasts of North Korea.

=============================================

SAUDI ARABIA (KINGDOM OF)

Population Approval: 58%
Government Approval: 56%
International Favor: 59%
Economic Growth: 6%, Very Good.
Inflation: 0.5%
Unemployment: 13% *(Estimate for males. Some estimates are as high
as 25%.)
----------------------

China is not the only nation that has been bringing in major social 
changes. While still a conservative nation by Western standards, the 
new laws introduced by the King are a major leap forward for such a 
strongly Muslim nation as Saudi Arabia. As with China, groups like 
Amnesty International and the UN are heaping praise upon the Kingdom 
as a potential model for a modern Muslim state.

The education reforms are also possibly a wise move. Saudi Arabia's 
heavy reliance on oil exports has made it wealthy but is accepted as 
not a viable economic model for the far future. Modernizing the 
educational system and expanding it to women will provide for a larger 
numbers of workers skilled in a wider range of fields.

These moves have apparently offended Osama Bin Laden, himself a Saudi 
expatriate, to a great extent. Al-Qaeda has recently released a video 
calling for the King to be overthrown and replaced by an Islamic 
fundamentalist government. But given the popularity of the new King, 
this is simply shrugged off by the population.

The charity of Saudi Arabia in regards to Lebanon have endeared the 
nation in the eyes of much of the Arab world.

=============================================

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Population Approval: 53.5%
Government Approval: 53.5%
International Favor: 51.5%
Economic Growth: 3.2%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.4%
----------------------------------------------------------

The British Prime Minister's continued concern and handling of the 
current situations in the Middle East has been well received, though 
many liberals are beginning to agitate to the new Prime Minister for a 
quick withdrawal from Iraq. The British joint statements on the 
region with the Americans have gone over well, though many nations are 
waiting and watching the situation with respect to Lebanon before 
committing to sending troops. Some are just risk averse, some want 
strong United Nations involvement, and some want the mission of the 
troops to be relatively passive in contrast to the demands of the 
Israelis on any such force.

With respect to the Anglo-American move against flags of convenience, 
the British public is generally supportive, with the conservatives 
liking the push to renew Britain's traditional merchant marine.

Meantime, some shipping officials, including but not limited to those 
who would be affected by the new taxes on flag of convenience ships, 
have complained. Some have pointed out that there are some perfectly 
legitimate ships flying flags of convenience, while others defend the 
right of ship owners to choose the flag flown on their ships. 

Moreover, several diplomats representing flag of convenience nations 
have protested the levies on their countries. Finally, as to the EU, 
the British thrust has been met with a counter-thrust from Greece, 
Cyprus, and Malta on the issue. They have pointed out, somewhat to 
the embarrassment of the British, that several British dependencies 
are themselves flags of convenience. Moreover, they have complained 
that the British taxes on ships flying their flags are illegal. In 
the end, no significant opposition is expected for British levies, 
while it's clear that any progress in the EU would lead into a 
difficult quagmire.

In other European Union news, they EU has seemed to be resistant to 
proposals to help fund the expansion of the Panama Canal. The source 
of the reluctance is that many countries, particularly those of 
Eastern Europe, would prefer that money be spent or used to fund their 
own development projects. France and Germany, however, seem to be a 
bit more willing, though their financial resources, given their 
already high deficits, aren't what could be wished for.

Next, the proposals of the UK Government in regards to giving Iran WTO 
membership or nuclear technology get flat stares from both sides of 
the Atlantic, followed by simple "No"s.

When you follow this up with the UK's proposal in regards to lifting 
the arms embargo on China, a proposal which has generated howls from 
every quarter, there is a lot of blank stares about Westminster and 
elsewhere.

However, there is mixed news from Iraq.

On the one hand, the Pentagon isn't as opposed as one would think at 
first; though opinion is mixed as to whether they're worth saving, 
that just gets the issue shoved to a generally approving White House. 
However, some IA officials are resistant to being Westernized, and 
there's some uneasiness at deploying the *entire* 22 SAS Regiment to 
Iraq, given their global responsibilities. Beyond that lies a problem: 
the 'westernized' Iraqi units are fairly well off. It's those units 
that aren't hand-picked, and barely standardized, that are having the 
issues with lack of morale and combat ineffectiveness. Solving *that* 
issue will take more than shiny gear.
=============================================

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Population Approval: 60%
Government Approval: 59%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 2.8%, Average.
Inflation: 3.1%
Unemployment: 4.6%
----------------------

President Williams can be commended for running a great PR campaign. 
His interview with CNN went over very well with the American people. 
The POTUS and his staff have successfully portrayed Williams as 'one 
of the guys.' This is particularly positive among America's Middle 
Class. The 'crisis effect' of his coming into office due to the 
attempt on President Bush's life has not hurt thing either. While 
political analysts predict the honeymoon with Congress won't last 
forever, the public are behind the President in strong numbers.

The United States military is firmly behind the President. His 
commitment to win in Iraq and his fair and sincere treatment of the 
military, the Commander Lippold issue as a prime example, has won 
Williams points.

However a wave of bombings in Iraq over the past week have claimed the 
lives of two US servicemen and twenty Iraqi civilians. The current 
insurgency in the Middle East will provide a daunting task for this 
very new administration.

=============================================

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Population Approval: 59%
Government Approval: 57%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 3.2%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.4%
-------------------

Government shakeup is not always welcome in unstable Africa, but the 
actions by the new Tanzanian leader is looked on with no small amount 
of admiration by the legislature and the populace. A sincere 
commitment to cleaning up corruption and making government more 
efficient is a rarity in Tanzania and everyone is supportive of the 
President's initiative. Assuming there’s follow-through, at least; 
such is always a problem in Africa.

===============================================


ECONOMIC INDICATORS

NOTE: Initial indicators were gleaned from as recent sources as 
possible, for the most recent term possible (annualized). In some 
cases, the numbers used are published estimates, but the English- 
speaking nations' data is more or less right from the source.

Depression: Economic forces retracting uncontrolably and at a 
dangerous pace with little end in sight.

Recession: Economic forces retracting, but more shallow than 
Depression and more controlably. Sometimes necessary and part of 
regular economic trends, although prelonged.

Revision: Economic forces retracting slightly and short term, 
associated with economic systems refitting to accomodate new 
industries, concentrations, etc.

Zero: No movement one way or the other.

Low: Comparatively low Economic growth/activity. (miniscule to about 
2%, depending)

Good: Average economic activity (ranging from 2%-5% normally)

High: Above average performance (Greater than 5%) Sometimes 
dangerous if in excess of 8% continuously.

SITES OF INTEREST

WAR Website: http://war.dagarcia.net/
Nova Horizon Simulations: http://www.novahorizon.com
United Nations: http://www.un.org/
Central Intelligence Agency: http://www.cia.gov/
CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
Federation of American Scientists: http://www.fas.org/
GlobalSecurity.org: http://www.globalsecurity.org/
CNN: http://www.cnn.com/
BBC: http://www.bbc.com/
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/