[War] World Report: 12 October-24 October

[pentaj2 at Scranton.edu]

WAR: World Report

- For all actions to October 24th, 2006.

United Nations Security Council (Permanent Members): United States,
United Kingdom, France, China, Russia

United Nations Security Council (Non-Permanent Members):

Through November 1, 2006:

Mexico, Panama, Marshall Islands, South Africa, Latvia

>From October 1 Through December 1, 2006:

Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Nigeria, Romania

>From November 1, 2006 Through January 1, 2007:

Bosnia, Uraguay, Italy, Algeria, and Malaysia

Pending UN Security Council Actions: None

Pending UN General Assembly Actions: None

United Nations Secretariat: No news.
==============
GM Babble:

This one took some time, but is out much quicker than our last attempt.

The GMs of WAR encourage all eligible American citizens to VOTE 
November 7th! We don't care who you vote for, just vote!

We're encouraged by the steady pace of activity.

For the record, non-posters:

Gabon (Lisa)
ROC (Alan)
India (Dan)
Tanzania (Bryan)

Dan is on LOA, but where are the rest of the people on that list? Are 
you alive?

Best line in a WAR Post award for the WR period goes to Pat Buckley 
(Saudi). From the post "When it rains...":

'That got the King to blanche slightly, "Why the hell did you bring 
this 
to me?"

That got a raised eyebrow from the officer about his age, "Because it 
is 
your decision, the job isn't all Mercedes' and photo ops, you're not 
the King of England you actually rule."'

-John
===============================================

WORLD NEWS (Please review the following topics for potential posting
fodder):

No news.

ACTION RESPONSES
=============================

CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 59% 
Government Approval: 62.5%
International Favor: 54%
Economic Growth: 9%, High.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 4.2% *(Urban registered. Estimated total varies
widely from 10% to over 20%)
----------------------------------------------------------

There have big moves in the China's military over the last two weeks.
The so-far successful deployment of troops to Lebanon is considered
good news by the population who see it as a prestige building and the
military that needed the practice in deploying outside of China.
However some foreign pundits have mused that putting so many Indian
and Chinese troops into an already volatile area of the world might be
ill advised but so far so good.

The potential deployment to Afghanistan is greeted internationally as
a pragmatic tit-for-tat move to lower the EU sanctions more quickly.
At home there is some head scratching outside of Xia's circle of
military advisors as to why the 127th should be trained in the US
while China maintains mountain forces to defend the borders between
China and some of its neighbours. While those in the party are very
concerned about the security issues of such a training deployment and
demand that political officers be sent along with the 127th to monitor
*all* interaction between the Americans and the troops to prevent
`corrupting influences'.

Another burr under the saddle of some in the party is Xia's sudden
leap forward on her policies on North Korea. While her speech was very
well received internationally and sent `experts' scrambling to explain
the sudden turn around the world over, the hardliners in her
government were far from swept aside and while their protests have
been muted they are making it known they do not support the betrayal
of China's ideological roots or fellow Communists to appease the
decadent western powers. The progressives in the PNC however are
extremely happy with the direction things are going as many of them
have ties to Chinese business and the DPRK's `demonstrations' have
always been bad for investor confidence. They're support though has
been limited to economic actions against the DPRK taking the view that
collapse can be achieved through economic manipulation allowing China
to sweep in and negotiate with Seoul for the parts of North Korea that
could be of use and leave them with the rest.

Finally, the blockade is in place and the inclusion of the Japanese
has largely diverted the wrath (such as it is) of the North Korean
navy towards them and not the ships of the PLA. It is not so pacific
on the border however as a shots have been fired on two occasions in
defence of North Korean immigrants. The first was without Chinese
casualties, the second saw a Chinese soldier wounded and two North
Korean refugees killed in the crossfire.

=============================================

REPUBLIC OF CHINA (TAIWAN)

Population Approval 56%
Government Approval 55%
International Favor 50%
Economic Growth 3.8%, Good
Inflation 2.3%
Unemployment 4.1%
----
The reaction from the UK was about as people expected, ergo no change 
in attitudes occurs. No significant news, otherwise.
=============================================

GABONESE REPUBLIC

Population Approval: 57%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 2.3%, Average.
Inflation: 1.5%
Unemployment: 22% *(Estimate)
----------------------------------------------------------

No news of significance.

===============================================
ETHIOPIA

Population Approval: 57%
Government Approval: 56%
International Favor: 52%
Economic Growth: 5.4%, high
Inflation: 12.3%
----------------------------------------------------------

Ethiopia's actions in Somalia and regarding Somalia have caused a 
storm of international protest. The recognition of Somaliland is 
condemned by the UN, the EU, and the AU as "prejudicial to a peaceful 
resolution of the situation in Somalia". Neither is anybody 
particularly happy with Ethiopia's military mobilization. Where 
Ethiopia had been getting credit from Kenya for their diplomacy 
regarding their border issues, that goodwill evaporates once troops 
are mobilized. The US Ambassador warns that Congress may not be very 
helpful in terms of aid should current behavior continue, and that the 
President may not be very willing to help the Government of Ethiopia 
in these circumstances, either.

The SNA has yet to respond to communications, as they manage to 
capture the port of Kismayo from the Islamists, still remaining fairly 
silent. However, reports indicate that they moved with speed to 
establish a municipal government of sorts; NGOs report that they've 
recieved amazing cooperation from the SNA, and freelance journalists 
report something amazing: trash pickup, for the first time in more 
than a decade.

Meanwhile, the populace back home is growing increasingly 
discontented; Given how poor Ethiopia is, don't they have bigger 
things to focus on? That said, the government remains moderately 
popular.

=============================================

INDIA (REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 55%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 9.3%, High.
Inflation: 5%
Unemployment: 9.2%
----------------------------------------------------------

No news of significance.

=============================================

JAPAN

Population Approval: 56%
Government Approval: 52%
International Favor: 57%
Economic Growth: 2.5%, Average, Picking Up.
Inflation: 0.6%
Unemployment: 4%
----------------------------------------------------------

The motion to allow the Cabinet to arm the KRF passes the Diet by a 
slim, slim margin; The motion to change Article 9 passes by the 
slimmest of all margins: 1 vote past 2/3rds in the House of 
Representatives, and with *exactly* 160 votes, 2/3, in the House of 
Councillors.

With that said, however, massive protests against amending the 
constitution have begun in most Japanese cities; They're peaceful, but 
they're still large, and the referendum is set for November 9.

The Diet awaits further details regarding joint UK-Japanese satellite 
construction, particularly the financials.

The naval forces tasked with the blockade operations have been 
deployed, and there have been several near-clashes with the North 
Korean navy in recent days.

Finally, the idea of even potential job cuts is greeted by large 
protests as well, which feed into (and off of) the anti-Amendment 
protests. Many in the LDP (a core constituency being government 
workers) are less than pleased at the PM's timing on the matter, 
coming right after the Diet votes on the Constitution and the KRF. It 
feels, to many, like a stab in the back politically.
=============================================
KOREA [NORTH] (DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 30%
Government Approval: 75%
International Favor: 10%
Economic Growth: 1%, Zero.
Inflation: N/A
Unemployment: 0% *(Actual unemployment estimated to be well above 
50%.)

KRF:
Population Approval: 57%
Cadre Approval: 95%
International Favor: 50%
Funds Available: USD 300,000

    All movements have their movements of unparralleled difficulty.  
The 
American Revolution had Valley Forge, the French Revolution had the 
Reign of 
Terror, and Lenin himself was exiled to Siberia before returning to 
bring Communism 
to Russia.  Unfortunately for the KRF, the time of bleakness has 
arrived.  
The next couple of weeks will be critical.

    An agent attempting to make contact for further shipments from 
Japan was 
captured by the North Korean Navy, and interrogated in traditional 
North 
Korean techniques.  To spare the lives of his family, who unbeknownst 
to him had 
already made it over the border to the safety of China, the agent 
spilled his guts (figuratively).  After admitting to Japanese 
involvement, the prisoner was locked up in an unmentioned facility 
(whence he likely spilled his guts literally).  An official report to 
the Chinese government is being made in an attempt to shore up North 
Korean-Chinese relations, and to discredit the KRF publically as an 
outside supported movement.

    Equally devestating, although necessary, has been the casualties 
sustained in helping civilian refugees cross into China.  Kim Jong Il 
has placed the 'highest' priority in deterring the flow of workers 
into China.  Some rumors suggest more than a million Koreans have 
already made it across between land routes, the river, or in boats 
risking ocean travel. Fortunately these are being partially off-set by 
recruitment among the refugees, although at the moment losses exceed 
recovery.  In addition, some shipments intended for the KRF have been 
interdicted by North Korean naval patrols, drastically cutting the 
KRF's supply lines.

    If, however, the group manages to survive these set-backs, the few 
privy to the knowledge of the KRF's existance believe it 'may' be able 
to win the proverbial war.
=============================================

SAUDI ARABIA (KINGDOM OF)

Population Approval: 45%
Government Approval: 51%
International Favor: 71%
Economic Growth: 6.1%, Very Good.
Inflation: 0.5%
Unemployment: 12.5% *(Estimate for males. Some estimates are as high
as 25%.)
-----
A 'written' criminal code?  The idea isn't completely foreign in 
Arabian 
lands, but for Saudi Arabia a truly formal and complete code of 
criminal conduct 
in a written form had never been adopted.  Granted, some codes were 
implemented 
on major issues here and there, all written, but a formal, concise 
source of 
law never compiled.  Consternation, particularly among the clerics of 
Saudi 
Arabia however is stirred as it's typically felt these codes are not 
in keeping 
with Shari'a law, the system around which current Saudi justice is 
'supposedly' based.  The often complex and even contradictory system 
is none the less an 
engrained fact of life, meaning that the 'people' as a whole may be 
better off 
in the long run, but are unlikely to appreciate it in the short term.

In addition, the civilizing effort on law enforcement has made many 
come to 
see the Kingdom as being 'soft' on crime... especially among 
criminals!  Crime 
rates in major metropolitan areas are up, slightly, but this hasn't 
stopped 
the extremists and insensed religious leaders from blaming the King's 
decisions 
for the problems.  Several demonstrations, where permissable, have 
been made 
by Islamic leaders and their followers, demanding the reinstitution of 
both 
Shari'a Law, and the severer crime penalties.  It's rumored that talks 
of 
assassination have begun spreading, and that the King is burned in 
effigy, but these 
are just rumors... for now.

The reliance on more science and technology, regardless of how 
objectively 
right it may be, is seen by the people in the broader international 
context as 
relying on more support from the West... and the United States 
especially, not 
a particularly popular part of the world right now in downtown 
Riyadh.  
International favor on the other hand has exploded with praise for 
these new, 
substantive changes, earning the King increased leeway 
internationally.  'The year 
of Democracy' some proclaim, as major governments all around the 
world, 
formerly authoritarian, begin instituting increasingly 'democratic' 
measures.

The building of prisons has angered some, but not over the fact that 
they 
should exist.  Like in the West, the arguments center over 'where'!  
Nobody wants 
a prison in their neighborhood, but they 'do' want the jobs associated 
with 
prisons.  It will take some time to sort these issues out, and whether 
the King 
wishes to lead by decree or allow local leaders to make the decisions 
and 
defer to their judgment remains to be seen.  This budding justice 
system 'will' 
however require a dramatic uptick in the Civil Service... and although 
this 
means more employment opportunities for Saudi men and a higher 
standard of living 
for many, it simultaneously means expenses.  So far that's not an 
issue, 
given the fairly high cost of petrol on the world markets, but if oil 
prices drop 
too suddenly, the 'one trick pony' that is the Saudi economy will be 
desperately strained trying to support this new beuracracy.  Some 
minor economic 
ripples, positive in nature, are already being felt.  There is a 
greater amount of 
Foreign Direct Investment in Saudi Arabia, with foreign companies 
looking to 
establish firms inside the nation to provide the goods and services 
necessary 
for the upcoming civil projects.

The greater investments in Technical Colleges, although sturring some 
controversy when seen in the light of forced modernization, does offer 
several 
dividends.  First it gives young Saudi males something to do if they 
can't find 
employment, nipping at the extremist recruiting pool.  Secondly it 
provides a 
higher class and broader opportunity for jobs within the Kingdom as 
demand for 
foreign services can be replaced by local Saudi enterprises.  Finally, 
if and 
when true global economic integration is to take place, it makes the 
Saudi 
economy far more competitive, and thus a likely benefactor of 
globalization.

People aren't exactly ready for 'that' kind of leap however.

The Police exchange program receives warm welcomes from both New York 
City 
and Chicago, though there is some concern about the language barrier.  
(More so 
in Chicago than New York).  The program being shaped up so far is that 
Saudi 
exchange officers will be put through the respective Police Academies 
of the 
cities, and then serve a 6 month term which is normally 'probation' 
before going 
home.  This will provide excellent training, and the technical 
expertise to 
modernize the justice system in Saudi Arabia.

Finally, the fairly successful ending of the hostage crisis eases some 
concerns on security matters, although rumblings are the possibility 
of attack 
remains high.

=============================================
UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Population Approval: 52.5%
Government Approval: 56.5%
International Favor: 56.5%
Economic Growth: 3.2%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.4%
----------------------------------------------------------
This week is looking genuinely more positive than before, as the Prime 
Minister enjoys a bit of a bump for his skillful and deliberate 
handling of the 
'China issue'.  Acting in deliberation with key allies, and mindful of 
agreements 
and expectations, practically everyone can agree to the need to keep 
Taiwan 
well equipped, and simultaneously stall or totally prevent an Asiatic 
arms race. 
 The only unfortunate thing on this note is that the news is eclipsed 
by news 
of the North Korean nuclear test, meaning the public at large (as is 
often 
the case) is relatively unaware of the success in stopping the 'would 
be' 
crisis, and instead is focussing on the current, obvious issues.

The handling of North Korea was no more, and no less, than expected.  
The 
Prime Minister's move had wide-spread backing, and thus he enjoys 
considerable 
political leverage on the issue.

Parliament also agrees to the negotiated use of Japanese spy-
sattelites, 
seeing the obvious need for such a program given North Korean nuclear 
ambitions 
and the pending 'Operation Revival' against the Taliban.  Field 
commanders 
report the troops are ready, willing, and able to begin the fight to 
retake 
Afghanistan.  The EU has dispatched an additional 1,500 troops to 
Afghanistan for the 
operations, and Brazilian and Chinese troops are expected in theathre 
shortly.  In addition, the best units of the Afghani National Army 
(which isn't 
exactly saying much.) have been made available by the government for 
military 
operations, as have some of the sectorial 'militias' which have come 
back to some 
sense in response to the rising strength of the Taliban.  All told, 
Afghani and 
Foreign contributions now total some 15,000 troops... although for 
obvious 
reasons commanders are hesitant about deploying all the troops 
possible.

Lawmakers are however increasingly concerned over the rising cost of 
the war, 
the apparent lack of American involvement, and (quite understandably 
given 
the Iraq debacle) exit strategy for the operation.  The Prime Minister 
has 
'some' time to consider his options, but it would be best not to 
diddly daddle if 
public support is to be kept strong.  The GMO crop program is 
considered a good 
start, but Afghanistan has always been, and likely always will be a 
hostile 
place to life.  Why would someone want to grow genetically altered 
corn for $1 
on the acre when they could grow natural poppy for ten times that 
amount on 
the same land?  Similarly, the more opium crops that are destroyed, 
the higher 
the price of opium, and likewise the profit in growing it.  Most 
believe 
expecting a quick solution to the problem is unrealistic, and that the 
GMO plan is 
really a band-aid action for the moment.  

The intelligence exchange with Japan gets a grateful response from the 
Japanese intelligence agents who were helpful to the UK previously.  
This apparently 
growing Anglo-Japanese relationship is likely to pay dividends in the 
future, and 
to that end the government beuracrats and elected representatives give 
the PM 
general support.

About the only (minor) downpoint is that debate on the PREP Act 
continues in 
Parliament.  The issue is likely to fade as the international scene 
demands 
greater attention, particularly with British troops about to engage in 
combat.

=============================================
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Population Approval: 60% 
Government Approval: 56%
International Favor: 57%
Economic Growth: 2.8%, Average.
Inflation: 3.1%
Unemployment: 4.6%
----------------------

It has been a mixed period for the President. Starting with his
comments at St. Matthews kicking up questions about the handling if
Iraq if four years in it's still taking weeks to formulate an opinion
on what to do about it. However this is mostly washed out of the
public eye by the announcement of the pending arrival of the `First
Kid', the seaminess of Foley-gate and the debate over closing Gitmo. 
This last issue though has left the Republican Party feeling left out
in the cold by their President. Most Republicans up for re-election in
November's midterms have defended Gitmo up to this point and don't
appreciate having to flip-flop on the Republican go-to issue:
security. This has been made worse by the opposition of the
conservative media to the closure many, including a newly returned
Tony Snow, have dubbed the release Gitmo detainees as a betrayal of
American security. Meanwhile Democrats have wasted no time in heaping
praise for the President doing what they've been telling the last
administration to do for years. That along with the appointment of a
Democrat to the White House's most visible job has lent momentum to
the Democrats' drive to take back the house and left many Republicans
in close races to wonder what side President Williams' is on and the
party to ask the President to share his PR wealth and do some 
campaigning.

>From the military side of things, replacing Rumsfield is greeted with
a sigh of relief from many in the Pentagon, but the decision to train
Chinese forces? Not so much. Not only has the Pentagon been besieged by
the usual suspects at any anti-China protest (pro-democracy,
pro-Taiwan, pro-Falun Gong and some Christian groups) but the MWTC has
been seeing protesters as well; some of whom have entered military
property and had to be detained. Also a `marine lieutenant' is quoted
on a pro-Falun Gong blog of as telling protesters to leave or `we'll
lend the Chinese a tank and let them deal with you'. This has brought
not inconsiderable media attention to the protests and calls for an
investigation into if such a comment was made. However despite the
problems with the Chinese, most other military matters go smoothly.
Commanders in Afghanistan accept working under the commander of the
ISAF with little grumbling and the armament plans for Japan goes
smoothly, since mostly it involves passing the keys to the weapons
lockers on shared JSDF/USFJ bases to the Japanese and ordering more
weapons from home. The KRF plan is taking a bit more time though. The
weapons can easily be bought abroad but it'll take some time to do
that. One option presented to speed things up in the interim is to
send foreign made weapons kept for opposition training by US Forces
but there is some concern this might delay scheduled training 
exercises. 

Finally, the FSOTC is considered a good idea by both sides of the
aisle as only the most rabid neo-cons think that America couldn't be a
bit better at diplomacy these days. The OMB sets the price tag at
about $6-700 million dollars over the next 10 years assuming the
students are attending private universities and the goal is to provide
the same percentage of State Department personnel as the ROTC has
provided the armed forces (around 60%). This has put off a few
deficit hawks and a number of Republicans are a hesitant to support
the bill just now, but if the White House is willing to push, it
should pass.

=============================================

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Population Approval: 59%
Government Approval: 57%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 3.2%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.4%
-------------------

No news of significance.

===============================================

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

NOTE: Initial indicators were gleaned from as recent sources as 
possible, for the most recent term possible (annualized). In some 
cases, the numbers used are published estimates, but the English- 
speaking nations' data is more or less right from the source.

Depression: Economic forces retracting uncontrolably and at a 
dangerous pace with little end in sight.

Recession: Economic forces retracting, but more shallow than 
Depression and more controlably. Sometimes necessary and part of 
regular economic trends, although prelonged.

Revision: Economic forces retracting slightly and short term, 
associated with economic systems refitting to accomodate new 
industries, concentrations, etc.

Zero: No movement one way or the other.

Low: Comparatively low Economic growth/activity. (miniscule to about 
2%, depending)

Good: Average economic activity (ranging from 2%-5% normally)

High: Above average performance (Greater than 5%) Sometimes 
dangerous if in excess of 8% continuously.

SITES OF INTEREST

WAR Website: http://war.dagarcia.net/
Nova Horizon Simulations: http://www.novahorizon.com
United Nations: http://www.un.org/
Central Intelligence Agency: http://www.cia.gov/
CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
Federation of American Scientists: http://www.fas.org/
GlobalSecurity.org: http://www.globalsecurity.org/
CNN: http://www.cnn.com/
BBC: http://www.bbc.com/
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/