[War] Japan/US: "Getting the Ball Rolling"

[Ian Martell]

(pls. note the date)

"Getting the Ball Rolling"
President John Williams - United State of America
Prime Minister Shunichi Sato - Japan
October 10th 2006
===
Sato's pace was hurried as he walked out of the Lower House of the
Diet at the noon break battling past the gaggle of reporters waiting
to ambush the members as they left this morning's closed session and
hoping to glean some idea of what was being discussed.

As he broke through the lines and made it safely to the elevator where
Mura and Akira waited he pushed the button for the sixth floor and
waited to be taken safety while Yamagata ran cover. "How'd it go?"
asked Mura once the brass finish doors closed completely.

"As well as we expected the Communists, Socialists, and parts of the
DPJ are against authorizing our support of the KRF, however it is
empty protest, so long as the whips keep our party togeather on this
we will have the votes we need."

"And the debate on Article 9?" asked Akira.

"We've voted to extend the debate until three today, so I don't
imagine much will happen until tomorrow."

Akira nodded. "I expected it would."

"What about the call, is it still on the schedule?" Sato asked.

"Yes the we're in touch with the White House now and the call is going
ahead as scheduled," Mura reported.

"Any word on what form the American's planned support will take?"

"Weapons is what we are hearing, Haruma says they may be looking at
the Koreans to deliver them."

"And his wife's pregnancy?"

"Good, it is the 'feel good' story of the last couple of news cycles,
our Ambassador has sent a card and a gift."

"Excellent."

The elevator opened and Sato made his way to his office and sat down
after being handed a breifing book on the aid Japan was preparing, not
that he needed it, after the morning's debate he knew it by heart.

He picked up the phone. "Yurika, put me through when the President is
ready."

In Washington, what the PM's aides called a 'feel-good story' had had
POTUS happy, nervous, scared shitless...All at once. And that amidst
everything else.

Nonetheless, he sat in a private office in the Residence, the usual
scramblers, anti-eavesdropping devices, and the like ready, with the
secure phone on speaker (and already encrypted).

"Mr. Primse Minister. Good morning." It was after 11, approaching
midnight in DC; John knew his wife would be grumpy over his nearly 18-
hour day, as well she should be, but at least it wasn't going to be a
20-hour day like he had previously pulled in Congress. Just have this
phone call, spend 20 minutes making notes from the transcript the
phone system was making of the conversation (the benefits of
technology!), and go to bed. It was a little before noon in Tokyo, he
recalled. 'Lucky bastard' was his only thought. "How are things where
the hour is saner?" He asked with a smile. Unlike his predecessor,
Williams worked long days (nobody could say he lacked a work ethic!),
but after the doc had pulled him aside this day and given him a stern
lecture about how an expecting dad shouldn't be working the hours he
does, he was going to try (somehow) to cut back. As soon as the world
would *let* him, anyway.

Sato chuckled. "Insane," he said lightly. "Kim Jong-Il's timing is
infuriating, as I imagine both yourself and your wife would agree."

Sato remembered what it was like when he first learned Mariko was
pregnant. There was no other time in his life when he felt as happy or
as frightened, well except for the other three. Fatherhood was an
adventure and never the same one twice.

"Congratulations to you both by the way from myself and Mariko. And if
you don't mind my saying I am impressed with your courage waiting for
your first child is always an *interesting* time in a man's life. To
do it in office. Impressive."

Sato was sure there were better words for it, like insane, as the
President was no doubt discovering, but it didn't need to be said.

"Thank you. I'm flopping between wondering whether the White House is
any place for a baby, giddy happiness, and...Well, a tiny part of me
that's deathly afraid I'm going to screw up miserably at being a dad.
And, yes, there's general agreement that the timing of the DPRK's
latest antics is...infuriating." Insane was a good word for what he
was going through, yes.

"With regards to work, however...while I can see the merits of
diplomacy, and I understand why everybody wants it...I'm stuck. We
know so *little* about the KRF, about what they plan to do if they
win. But what options, diplomatically, do we *have*? The KRF is damn
risky; We risk a war with North Korea *and* possibly China."

Sato huffed a sigh. "The risk is greater than you know. I have spoken
with Ryu Seung-bok, he is... completely dedicated to the goal of
destroying the Kim Regime, however, that is where his plans end:
victory. As far as my intelligence services can determine the KRF is
like their leader, without ideology, their sole purpose is to remove
the Kim Regime, not replace it, and like their leader is willfully
ignorant of the problems this conflict causes the world at large.

"As for China, President Hong is a reasonable woman but she must
continue to please the PLA and the hardliners in the politburo if she
is to remain in power. During her summit we discussed North Korea, and
she spoke of sending a stabilizing force if things in North Korea got
too bad. I have not yet spoken to her but it is possible this crisis
will qualify, if not now then later, especially if chemical or
biological weapons are deployed close to the Chinese border or if she
feels 'The West' is getting too influential.

"The situation is fraught with risk, however I am certain that
allowing the Kim Regime will only lead to war on their terms, so it is
truely a choice between the lesser of two evils we face."

A sigh from Williams is the first response. "Give the KRF small arms,
ammo, and medical supplies, and give their leader a crash course on
the international situation, while pressing him to define his post-
victory objectives? Keep him to light infantry equipment, keep the
equipment such that we can't be pegged to it...And pray that he is, in
fact, reasonable. Meanwhile, we give Soeul a heads up to brush off
their reunification plans.

"Meanwhile...You're China's largest trading partner, as I recall. If
anyone is going to have leverage in telling them to back off, it'll be
you.

"If we can get Soeul to grab the opportunity of a Kim collapse to
reunify the peninsula, do you think the PRC will move to block it?"

"Firstly, I agree with your appraisal of what we should equip them
with, my only change would be to add some man portable surface-to-air
weapons to help balance out their weaknesses in that area. As for Ryu,
I will try to get him to be more receptive to thinking beyond the end
of the war, however I think we should also look to the exile and
refugee community to find potential leaders for a post-Kim Korea.

"As for Seoul and China's reaction, President Hong has said to me that
she would consider reunification as a threat to China's interests, the
least we can expect from her is to demand a swath of the northern
provinces as a Chinese influenced buffer-zone.  If that's the route we
go, I will do my best to get a feel for China's demands in such a case
before it happens.

"Which brings me to two more issues, the first is containment of the
WMDs. Personally I do not believe it is reasonable to assume we can
secure all the sites in the case of collapse and more than a few will
walk out of the country, most likely to rogue nations like Iran or
Myanmar or directly to terror groups. My intelligence service has put
forward a three part plan, first is at the early stages of colapse, we
make it known by pamphlet drops or radio broadcast that we are willing
to match the prices of our enemies for those weapons, the second is
when collapse occurs we be ready to cut off air and sea traffic and
deny them the easiest routes to smuggle these weapons out of the
country, as well as approaching China about sealing their border
again, and lastly in advance, meaning starting now we begin watching
potential buyers closely so we can move in if there is a potential
sale. It also goes without saying that we should try to work with any
power that directly intervenes to secure the major sites and their
stockpiles.

"The second thing I wanted to discuss, was an addition Japan is
considering to its arms and equipment aid which is deploying special
forces troops to work with the KRF. We believe there can be
considerable gains made by a modern force acting as KRF in the region,
and further gives us boots on the ground and direct intelligence about
the KRF's activities, and a measure of influence, the cost of course
is in blood and risk. However I for one would feel more comfortable
knowing some of our people are there to keep a handle on things."

"WMDs...OK, my first thought is this. Insofar as we give the KRF
targeting instructions, we need to tell them to destroy the DPRK
supply of missile fuel, ASAP. I doubt they'll ever have the force to
*capture* any of the other sites, but destroying a few should be
something we tell them would be greatly appreciated if they can pull
it off," Williams replies, bringing up relevant data on his computer.

"Otherwise, your plan seems sound. Have your people contact our PsyOps
people at SOCOM in regards to the leaflets.

"So far as deploying SOF...We're bound by the Armistice, you aren't. I
can't tell you whether to deploy your own troops. That is your call.
But I can't deploy US forces into the DPRK," he continued.

Sato made a noise of understanding. Sato’s people hadn’t thought about
the missile fuel angle. He wrote a note down on a legal pad on his desk
and circled it. “You’re right destroying the fuel is the right way to
go. “As for the SOF, I am afraid I spoke incorrectly, by ‘our’ I meant
Japanese troops as part of our alliance, I understand America cannot be seen
openly supporting enemies of North Korea,” Sato clarified.

“On the subject of the mutual defence treaty, as we both know this
could very well lead to open war and if that were to occur Japan would need
sufficient stockpiles of munitions for a prolonged conflict. Would it
be possible for us to buy these weapons directly from your military and
have you move them into Japan quietly. I don’t think this region could take
the added pressure of Japan preparing for war.”

"Regarding SOF...So long as the personnel on the ground and involved
with insertion and extraction are all Japanese, I see no evil, hear no
evil, speak no evil...And will let you deal with the constitutional
implications on your end.

"Regarding supplies: Easily possible; I'll sit down with the
Congressional armed services committees on it ASAP, we'll figure out
the bill once things are calmed down.

"If there are things not available in USFJ stocks, we can issue
classified contracts," Williams replies.

Sato nodded. He wasn't looking forward to the bill but what could be
done, he understood more clearly now how the American deficit spiraled out
of control since 9/11, war was expensive. "Thank you very much," he said
earnestly, then sighed. "As for the constitutional implications, sadly
all it takes is a majority vote of the Diet to circumvent Article 9. I
wish our constitution had some of the sacred status yours enjoys. But that 
is a
battle for another day," he said then coming back to the main
subject. "So where does this leave us now, what have we yet to discuss in 
order to
get things in motion?" he asked.

"Well, I'd like to know how exactly you intend to get supplies to the
KRF...And ensure the KPA remains clueless," Williams asked.

"Good question, our thinking is that the KPA will find out sooner or
later, as my National Police Agency and your DEA will tell you, all 
smuggling
operations are found out sooner or later, with that in mind we are
letting the KRF pick up the equipment by boat from one of Japan's coastal
islands and move it themselves. It keeps it more or less denyable on our 
part,
but really, Kim Jong-Il didn't waste anytime telling all of North Korea
that we were backing the KRF when he didn't have proof. If they suddenly get
higher powered weapons, he'll just assume its us again whether he catches us
at it or not.

"Our other option is smuggling it up from the South, which is
difficult and risky for all involved, the South is more vulnerable to attack 
than we
are and the North watches those waters particularly well. The last option
of course is getting China to help but I won't even bring it up unless I
feel there is a serious change in their position on the North's activities,
last time I talked to President Hong she was un willing to do anything that
would upset her hardliners."

"I think I prefer your original plan, personally. Just keep the drop
point under watch," Williams replied.

"And with that, I think we're done. Thanks for the gift, by the way;
Whoever thought up the Baby Godzilla plushie deserves a round of
applause."

Sato smiled. "I will be sure to pass that on to the responsible party."


Actions:

1> Japan and US agree to supply small arms and medical supplies to the KRF, 
letting the smuggling duties go to the KRF.
2> Japan and the US to talk to the South Koreans about restarting their 
reunification plans.
3> Japan will encourage the KRF to destroy the KPA's missile fuel.
4> US will quietly sell Japan munitions to increase the Japanese stockpiles 
in case of war.
5> Japan will talk to China about keeping things calmed down.

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