[War] USA/UK: "Mutual Agendas"

[Michael Downey]

"Mutual Agendas"
Foreign Secretary Clive Hollstadt, United Kingdom
Secretary of State Condi Rice, United States
16 October 2006
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<Washington DC>

This meeting was purely business. Neither the State Department nor the
FCO had bothered with any pomp or shows for the press. News had of
course gotten out that the British Foreign Minister was coming to
Washington, but all of that would have to wait until they had a chance
to speak.

Hollstadt waited patiently in one of the Diplomatic Reception Rooms at
the State Department.

And soon enough, Condi Rice entered the room; Sartorially, the theme
today was conservative yet powerful; Black, with boots that looked
perfectly ready to kick your face in.

"Mr. Foreign Secretary, my apologies for the delay. I was checking to
see if we have the radiological readings back yet. We don't,
unfortunately."

"I have no doubt that we will," said Hollstadt, standing and shaking
Rice's hand. "Our luck is not that good. The FCO doubts North Korea
would fake something like this. If they did, we'd find out, and
realize they still don't have the ability to produce nuclear weapons.
Better to /not/ do a test and keep us guessing. No, I feel that this
was real. The Club just got bigger."

As they sat, Hollstadt managed to produce a smile in an effort to make
their meeting less grim.

"We're not jumping into this one. You, the Chinese, the Japanese, the
South Korans and the Russians are already involved, and Her Majesty's
government is content to remain on the sidelines for the time being.
Of course I don't need to add we will back the United States in
whatever diplomatic course of action you take."

"Come into my office," Rice leads. "Would you like anything? Coffee?
Tea?"

Once they enter the office and the door closes, she continues. "Fair
enough. It's rather outside of the UK's sphere of influence anyhow.
Thusfar, the President, while he hopes diplomacy will work, isn't
willing to bet on it, and wants to keep covert options open. This
Department thinks it's a bit of a risk, but he's thinking of
supporting the KRF with seaborne weapons deliveries."

"Other than that, he did raise a question this morning that I've been
left thinking about: 'If they've tested a nuke, what do we have left
to talk about? When in history has a nation tested nuclear weapons and
then voluntarily given them up?'"

"South Africa?" offered Hollstadt. "However I doubt that will ever be
the case with a regime as bizarre as North Korea. As for supplying the
KRF.... it's risky. Very risky. First, it might anger China if they
find out. When I suggested to President Hong that we might even try to
/diplomatically/ influence North Korea towards a path of democracy,
she flipped her wig completely. And of North Korea finds out, well, it
would mean war."

"South Africa was an odd exception. They had never declared that they
had nuclear weapons until they gave them up, as you recall."
Pause. "Well, the risk, to the President, is worth taking with North
Korea. China, he figures, will remain reasonable if presented with a
fait accompli. He'd be happy to recognize a Chinese sphere of
influence over North Korea, except that the North Koreans have now
tested a nuclear weapon, and therefore the PRC does not seem to be
using their influence."

Hollstadt still had reservations, but as Britain was not becoming
involved there wouldn't be any heat coming down on them if things went
poorly.

"What actions do you intend to take overtly in regards to North Korea?
More sanctions, or are you going to try and lure them to the
negotiating table?"

"Overtly? Sanctions seem to be the only option. If we try to bring em
to the table with carrots after a nuke test, that would seem to
encourage everyone else who wants nuclear weapons - 'If you get a
nuke, you get the international community to give you what you want'?
We're thinking sanctions on all military and luxury items, global
asset freeze, and the option to inspect everything that enters or
exits the DPRK, implemented by UNSC resolution under Chapter VII.

"Additionally, we're going to nudge the Chinese to cut off the DPRK's
lifelines, but with a catch. The US will, hopefully with the support
of our allies, nudge private charities and volunteer groups into
setting up facilities to house refugees that may cross into China,
with the assistance of USAID and international counterparts. The idea
being to limit China's concerns, making it clear that the sanctions
and the like end once the government in North Korea falls, *and*
nuclear weapons are surrendered to the international community. Once
the Communist government in North Korea falls, the pressure to return
the refugees will be hard to resist, as will the pressure on the ROK
to absorb North Korea.

"As you say, risky, but the North Koreans have painted everybody into
a corner."

"Much of it will depend on China's support," pointed out Hollstadt.
"And what is to keep North Korea from launching a nuclear attack if
they feel they are going to loose power anyway?"

"Yes, it does, but do you think the Chinese like the idea of a nuclear-
armed DPRK any more than we do, Mr. Foreign Secretary?" Pause. "How do
you launch a missile without fuel? China provides their energy
supplies *and* their food supplies. If they lose Chinese support, I
doubt they'd be going anywhere or doing much of anything. Or has
someone managed to launch a missile with grass as the fuel source?

"Besides, do you really think one of the prime targets for the KRF
*won't* be destroying DPRK missile fuel supplies?"

The points were logical, and something HAD to be done about North
Korea. But this was still a dangerous game that they were playing.

"Well as I said, Madam Secretary, we are staying on the sidelines for
this
one. It's your show."

A nod. "As you wish. Now, the GMO project for Afghanistan. USDA should
be getting in touch with DEFRA over the coming days, and we're
planning on including a funding line in the next supplemental under
the reconstruction account.

"Similarly...Off-the-record, the President has asked for Secretary
Rumsfeld's resignation; Personality clash is the public reason, and
much of the private reason. However, the Secretary will be staying on
until his successor is confirmed and sworn in, and due to the fact
that several of the shortlisted potential nominees are candidates in
the upcoming elections, the President does not plan on naming a
nominee until the 10th November."

"Understandable," said Hollstadt. Rumsfeld has been as unpopular with
the MOD as he had with much of the American military. No one back home
would shed tears over his departure. "The MOD would like to know the
disposition of the 5th Special Forces Group. As the 2001 invasion of
Afghanistan has shown us, SF units are highly effective in this kind
of warfare, and we think the Green Berets could give the Taliban quite
the fight along with the rest of the NATO force."

"You'd have to ask the Pwntagon on that, but I'll pass the praise
along."

"Thank you," said Hollstadt. "As always, the support of the United
States is greatly valued." He paused, hoping what would come next
would go smoothly. "You are of course aware we have asked China to
contribute forces."

"We are. And it makes the Pentagon very, very nervous, for the
counterintelligence risks alone. Not to mention the risks of China
gaining influence in Afghanistan. But if the EU won't do anything, do
we have a choice? Probably not," Rice noted.

The Great Game all over again.

"Never mind that, in terms of domestic politics, it looks very bad
indeed. Fortunately, however, this President has more or less washed
his hands of the midterms, so far as he's telling anyone even
privately, and is letting the chips fall where they may on that. But,
still."

"China is here, Madam Secretary, and they are here to stay," replied
Hollstadt. "And the European Union is set on seeking a military
relation with them whether or not Britain asks for their help in
Afghanistan. France, Italy Germany, they are toothless lions, and
always will be. We can never rely on them to put forth any hard effort
to support global stability. China has the means and the will to help
us. They are not the Soviet Union. They are capitalists, businessmen.
Just like us. And treating them like the next Evil Empire is not the
path we must take. We don't want to see another Cold War anymore than
you do, so let's not start one."

"They're still at least nominally Communist, and the hardliners who
still believe in the Little Red Book still have influence, so we're
wary.

"We're not bent on treating them like the next Evil Empire, we just
recognize that they want to be another superpower. As global security
is served much better by having only one, we do what we can to at
least slow their rise, particularly so long as they remain opposed to
democracy," Rice replies.

Besides, when you're the top dog in the international system, why
would you want to have a peer rival?

"There are people in Congress that believe torture is justified and
detaining people for years on end without charge or trial is perfectly
acceptable, and blacks should go to separate restrooms" said
Hollstadt. "The same applies to Parliament. Three years ago we invaded
a country not to topple a dictator, who we BOTH sold weapons to during
the Iran-Iraq War, or to find WMDs, but for their oil. How many times
during the Cold War did we back murderers and petty despots?

"I agree that China could be an enemy of the West, but I don't want
that to happen. Those radicals who tap the Little Red Book are relics
of a past era, and those that really run China will never let them be
anymore than a vocal annoyance. Short of attacking them, we cannot
stop China's rise. Like it or not, they will be your equal, Madam
Secretary. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but someday. And
nothing good will come of working against them other than to foster
ill will. Your last president said it himself: the relationship
between China and the United States will determine the course of the
21st Century."

Rice raises an eyebrow. "The whys of Iraq are probably more
productively debated by historians, now. In any case, so far as China
goes...Alright, but we still need to be wary of them on the short
term, at least tactically. On the strategic level, on the longer term?
You have my agreement. The President more or less agrees, though he
tends to view the PRC with a degree of suspicion; Then again, he tends
to be a skeptic of people's intentions by nature, I'm told. Now, if
anyone can convince Congress, then maybe all that will mean anything.
But that isn't likely. The fact is, Congress is wary of them, because
the American people are wary of them. The American people will
probably be wary of them so long as they're Communist, even nominally.
The Pentagon is wary of everybody, nothing's going to change there,
nothing probably ever will."

"We're certainly not saying they can't be a danger," noted the Foreign
Secretary. "They may be moving more and more towards capitalism, but
not towards democracy. They still could try and attack Taiwan or the
Spratly Islands. We will be watching China very closely in
Afghanistan, and it would be poor judgement for them to attempt to
draw the country into their sphere of influence."

A brief nod from Rice is the only reply.

"The last thing I want to discuss is Taiwan. We've been getting
requests from them for weapons. So far we've stalled. As your are
about the closest thing Taiwan has to a partner, we'd like your
input."

"We're still doing a wait-and-see stance on the new President over
there. Thusfar, he seems all too ready to go off-the-reservation in
terms of his quest for Taiwanese independence. I'd recommend only
maintenance supplies, replacing attrition, and maintaining their
current capabilities; Nothing more advanced, personally, though this
isn't the position of the US Government formally. Formally, we're
reserving judgment, and will consider each request from Taiwan on a
case-by-case basis in line with the Taiwan Relations Act and
subsequent legislation. Informally, President Williams has not been
amused by their antics, let me put it that way," Rice replies to that
query.

Hollstadt breathed an inner sigh of relief. Congress was saddled with
resolutions that bound the United States to Taiwan in ways Parliament
was not. This was one instance in which Britain would not have qualms
about dumping a problem onto the US.

"We have a similar view, and have thus far only offered them repair to
their existing equipment. I do not think Britain or the rest of the EU
will be signing any military sales agreement with Taiwan."

"Makes sense. If Congress had not saddled us with the TRA, we'd be
thinking the same way. Of course, we plan on reassessing our position
if they prove...well, pliable," replies Rice.
---

Actions:
1) Britain supports the USA diplomatically in regards to North Korea,
but will stay out of clandestine operations.
2) The British Army will ask for the support of the 5th Special Forces
Group in the coming offensive in Afghanistan.
3) Continue the GMO crop program for Afghanistan.
4) Try and alleviate US concerns over Britain's new military
relationship with China.
5) Britain now considers Taiwan's ambitions for expanded military
capacity to be Washington's problem.