[War] Japan: "Shaped by Events"

[Ian Martell]

"Shaped By Events"
Prime Minister Shunichi Sato
Japan
October 8th 2006

[0852 UTC]

“How is Sendai Shunichi-san?” asked Minister Takezo over the phone as he 
picked up with the Prime Minister.

“Cold, wet, miserable,” Sato said with out the usual buoyancy to his tone. 
“This trip is a waste of time,” he complained. “Just because Mori had to 
finish that round of golf when the Ehime Maru went down now every time there 
is a crisis like this I must go out and show I am not ignoring it. It is 
like they expect me to dive into the ocean and pull the sailors out myself. 
Ha, if that’s what the people expect of their Prime Ministers they don’t 
know how very little power we have. Now these coast guard men, they have 
real power, do you think I’m too old to join?” Sato said with a derisive 
snort.

“I’m sure there is always room for a man to swab the deck,” joked Takezo.

Sato barked a laugh. “Ha! Yes, well it’s all I’m fit for,” he said. “Except 
for this shaking of hands and comforting families, useless, real men are out 
there risking their lives and what do I do? Pose for photos. Truly governing 
is the worst profession in the world, but anyhow lets get to it shall we?”

Takezo mercifully didn’t comment. He’d long known the Prime Minister as a 
fellow in the Oda Faction and as something of a friend in recent years and 
was used to his dark turns of dissatisfaction with politics when things were 
beyond his control.

“Of course, I am meeting with the Russian Ambassador again this morning 
about the shooting, what’s your thoughts?”

“We need to stand firm on our position but make it clear that we want to 
deal with them as laid out in our agreements with China but we need an 
apology from the highest levels, reparations to the family and disarmament 
of the patrols of those islands.”

“I think it is possible to negotiate the apology from President Putin and 
the reparations to the family of the slain fisherman but I doubt the 
Russians will give over the armament of their patrols. Not without something 
from us.”

“Any suggestions?” asked Sato.

“I suggest we open with the suggestion of new negotiations to decide the 
sovereignty of the islands be contingent in our participation in these 
mutual development programs between ourselves Russia and China. They will 
refuse, I will insist, and after some time allow myself to be talked down to 
disarmament in exchange for the Japanese Coast Guard keeping our people out 
of those islands on our side of the line.”

“Technically that is our side of the line,” Sato commented dryly.

“Yes, but it pays to be polite in cases such as these.”

“Good,” Sato said. “Just in case, assemble a team to have these 
negotiations; I do not want to threaten something we are not prepared to 
follow through with.”

“Of course,” Takezo said. “The matter of the Thai corruption cases? We’ve 
had a number of polite inquiries about the possibility of us doing something 
to help out those companies involved.”

Sato had been thinking about that. As much as he disliked the influence 
corporate Japan sometimes had on his government he knew they were necessary.

“Speak with the Thai ambassador ask him if his government is willing to 
allow the corporations to turn King’s evidence, receiving a pardon in 
exchange for their testimony against members of their government accused of 
corruption.”

“They may also request formal apologies from the companies.”

“Counter with a statement of apology from the Japanese government if that 
doesn’t meet with their approval, I will personally apologize for the 
actions of those companies, in Thailand if necessary.”

Both men knew that action would be seen in a good light by the chairmen of 
the companies involved in the scandal, after all he just let them save face 
at his expense it was a debt they could not easily ignore. And Sato needed 
those chairmen in his debt right now.

“Understood I will float your proposal to the Ambassador.”

“Good,” Sato said.

“North Korea?” Takezo asked. “We are still getting questions at all the 
foreign affair’s briefings about what our ‘strong economic measures’ will 
be,” Takezo said quoting from the Prime Minister’s response to the vow in 
the diet, pledging that Japan will pursue ‘strong economic measures’ to 
punish North Korea in the event it tests a nuclear device.

“Keep to our line, we are not at liberty to discuss this for reasons of 
security.”

“There are also speculation that the US is considering a naval blockade 
(from CNN) and there are questions about our stance if something like that 
should occur.”

“We don’t comment on the speculation of pundits.”

“I will pass that along to our public affairs bureau and also Ishikawa.”

“Good.”

“Also I hear that members of the Nikai Faction (ultra-right wing) are 
planning to make statements to the Diet condemning the weak response of 
China, the United States, and South Korea to the threat of North Korea.”

As President of the Party Sato could reign in the Nikai if he really wanted 
to and he sensed this was as much a test on Takezo’s part to guess where his 
Prime Minister stood.

“I’ll let them say what they want to say on the subject, South Korea’s 
sunshine policy is a joke and the US and China scream think of the people, 
but do nothing to increase their aid to those people who are reduced to 
eating bark off of trees. For once in their careers the Nikai are right, I 
just wish I could stand up in the Diet and say it and not them.”

Takezo made an ambivalent noise, but was silent, and Sato was sure thankful 
that his Prime Minister didn’t say those things and make his job a million 
times more difficult in the process.

“And on a faction note you’re appointing of Niwa to the Chairman of LDP 
General Assembly has been causing some friction in the Koga-Niwa faction 
there is talk of a split.”

“Mura informed me of this, I was hoping that you would as the heir apparent 
for the Oda Faction, would speak to Niwa and let him know he has our support 
and that any and all of his faction members would be welcome in the Oda 
Faction.”

“Of course,” Takezo said.

Sato turned to the TV news which had been playing muted in the background. 
The images were startling.

“Takezo, turn on the TV,” he said as he returned the sound to his own.

“What is it?”

“There is a terror attack in Saudi Arabia, an oil refinery…”

They both watched the news story quietly for a few moments before speaking.

“No matter how this turns out, it will greatly affect oil prices,” Takezo 
said.

Neither had to say that Saudi Arabia was the source of much of Japan’s oil 
and any loss of production or general disruption there would greatly affect 
the Japanese economy. Combined with the FOC tariffs putting doubt on 
Japanese exports and the North Korean nuclear threat the Nikkei was going to 
dip sharply and likely the Yen would take a hit as well.

Sato re-thought the decisions of the last few minutes in this context and 
spoke.
“Speed up your discussions with the Russians, if this crisis escalates or 
goes badly we will be needing their oil more than we do now and they’ll use 
that, best to do things immediately while it could go either way, do not let 
them stall. Also make this matter with Thailand a priority, with things as 
they are every bit of bad news in the buisness section will slow people’s 
spending, even minor things look big at a time like this, ‘Thailand Drops 
Charges in Exchange For Testimony’ will look better than ‘Thailand Examines 
Japanese Corps. Over Corruption’.”

“Yes, of course Shunichi-san.”

“Very good, if you’ll excuse me I will need to call my economic advisors and 
the Finance Minister.”

“Of course.”

“Thank you.”

Sato hung up the phone and a before calling his finance people called down 
to Akira who was acting as Chief of Staff for this trip.

“Are you watching the news?” Akira asked picking up the phone.

“Yes, your opininon?”

“Today is a good day to drive a hybrid,” he answered drolly. “But seriously, 
there will be economic concerns given the FOC tariffs and Korean nuclear 
threats, still I wouldn’t rush out of here if that is what you are thinking 
Father, the economy runs on confidence and if you rush home it makes us look 
frightened by this development.”

Sato smiled, Akira was rightly named, ‘the bright one’ his analysis was 
clear and to the point. It also didn’t hurt that Sato agreed one-hundred 
percent. “We also don’t want to look like we’re fiddling while Rome burns.”

“Delay your dinner with the mayor an hour and put out a statement of your 
confidence in the Saudi regime to handle this situation quickly and 
effectively. No, better still, call the Saudi Ambassador, then make the 
statement that you have received assurances that the situation will be 
handled quickly and effectively by the Saudi regime, that way if it isn’t…”

“We have cover,” Sato finished. “And we know that is what the Ambassador 
will say because that is what ambassadors say in times like this.”

“Exactly,” Akira said.

“Please ask the mayor to excuse my late arrival at dinner tonight and let 
the press know I will be making as brief statement…”
“Better that Kazou makes the statement actually, you speak when there is a 
serious crisis, your Public Affairs director speaks when it is a minor one.”

“It could also be seen as too distant as well…”

“True, your choice.”

“I’ll make the statement,”

“When did you want to do it?”

“Upon arriving to the dinner,” Sato said. “Doing it here at the hotel would 
be an insult to the mayor by not making every effort to be on time.”

Akira made an agreeing noise. “I will set things up,” he said.

“Good,” Sato said and hung up only to start dialling the next number on his 
mental list of people he needed to speak to, as much as this was one of the 
last things he wanted to be doing, he had to admit at least he was doing 
something.


1>	Go up to Sendai and show that hey, Sato’s not playing golf through this 
situation and shake hands with the the Japanese Coast Guard, comfort the 
familes of those still missing and make calls to the Indian and Sri Lankan 
government (the countries of origin for the freighter crew) and promise 
Japan is doing everything it can to help their citizens.
2>	Instruct the Foreign Minister to negotiate an apology from the Russian 
President, have reparations paid to the family of the dead fisherman shot by 
Russian security forces and push for the disarmament of the Russian patrols 
of the northern islands.
3>	Push the Thai on letting Japanese companies turn King’s evidence against 
corrupt Thai officials in exchange for a royal pardon. If necessary the PM 
will apologize on behalf of Japan to Thailand for the part these companies 
played.
4>	Refuse to discuss what sort of measures will be employed against North 
Korea if they detonate a nuclear bomb.
5>	Play some ‘inside baseball’ with the factions of the LDP.
6>	Call the Saudi ambassador and then release a statement to the effect that 
the Saudi government will be doing all it can to end this crisis quickly 
etc, do whatever possible to ensure that this becomes nothing more than just 
a bad day for the Japanese markets.

Reference:
…Mori's biggest public relations disaster was to calmly continue a round of 
golf after receiving the news that the US submarine USS Greenville had 
accidentally hit and sunk the Japanese fishing ship Ehime Maru during an 
emergency surface drill on Feb. 9, 2001, resulting in 9 dead students and 
teachers. – Wikipedia

Sources:
Ship’s aground
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20061008TDY01004.htm

Russian Shooting
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20061008TDY01005.htm

North Korean Nuke Test
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/20061005TDY01005.htm
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15125087/
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/07/nkorea.nuclear.reut/index.html

Koga-Niwa Faction
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20061007TDY04005.htm

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