[War] World Report: September 12-October 1

pentaj2 at Scranton.edu pentaj2 at Scranton.edu
Sun Oct 8 10:52:36 EDT 2006


WAR: World Report

- For all actions to October 1st, 2006.

United Nations Security Council (Permanent Members): United States,
United Kingdom, France, China, Russia

United Nations Security Council (Non-Permanent Members):

Through November 1, 2006:

Mexico, Panama, Marshall Islands, South Africa, Latvia

>From October 1 Through December 1, 2006:

Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Nigeria, Romania

>From November 1, 2006 Through January 1, 2007:

Bosnia, Uraguay, Italy, Algeria, and Malaysia

Pending UN Security Council Actions: None

Pending UN General Assembly Actions: None

United Nations Secretariat: No news.
==============
GM Babble:

Good posting. But where the heck IS everybody else?

Africa? Africa? India?

Wakey wakey!

-John
===============================================

WORLD NEWS (Please review the following topics for potential posting
fodder):

No news.

ACTION RESPONSES
=============================

CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 58%
Government Approval: 64%
International Favor: 52%
Economic Growth: 9%, High.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 4.2% *(Urban registered. Estimated total varies
widely from 10% to over 20%)
----------------------------------------------------------

China's response to the Thai situation gets a nod of approval from the 
international community; it's nothing amazing, but it is in line with 
the usual practice among nations, a nice change from Mao-era days when 
the PRC could as often be found flouting international norms as 
following them. Meanwhile, the PRC verbal smack gets amused laughs 
from the international community, and the more independence-favoring 
of Taiwanese newspapers reply with the editorial equivalent of 
sticking their tongues out in response, but everything is calm.

For the record though, the Thai government has politely declined 
offers of mediation, saying (in essence) that they don't seem to be 
necessary, but thanks anyway.

=============================================

REPUBLIC OF CHINA (TAIWAN)

Population Approval 56%
Government Approval 55%
International Favor 50%
Economic Growth 3.8%, Good
Inflation 2.3%
Unemployment 4.1%
----

The KMT celebrates as the President kicks his constitutional plans to 
a committee, burying them for...a while, at least.

Nonetheless, the climbdown calms everything, pretty much.

=============================================

GABONESE REPUBLIC

Population Approval: 57%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 2.3%, Average.
Inflation: 1.5%
Unemployment: 22% *(Estimate)
----------------------------------------------------------

No news of significance.

===============================================

ETHIOPIA

Population Approval: 59%
Government Approval: 58%
International Favor: 53%
Economic Growth:
Inflation:
----------------------------------------------------------

No news of significance.

=============================================

INDIA (REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 55%
Government Approval: 55%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 9.3%, High.
Inflation: 5%
Unemployment: 9.2%
----------------------------------------------------------

No news of significance.

=============================================

JAPAN

Population Approval: 56%
Government Approval: 54%
International Favor: 57%
Economic Growth: 2.5%, Average, Picking Up.
Inflation: 0.6%
Unemployment: 4%
----------------------------------------------------------

Domestically, the Parenthood Support Act passes with everyone giving 
themselves a feel good pat on the back for 'accomplishing' something, 
though comedians make light of the fact that there's very little to be 
proud of... what idiot would say no?  Parents in Japan 
rejoice.  "Parent's Day" also gains a fair amount of traction in Japan 
with most Shinto groups supporting it, and others attempting to 
rationalize it's acceptance based on traditions and practices.  
Likely, most of those will also end up supporting it eventually, even 
if the research takes a bit.
 
After the field good session, the Flag of Convenience Tarriff causes 
more feathers to be ruffled.  Japan is an export based economy, and 
thus anything which raises the cost of shipping, such as the FOC bill, 
will raise the price of Japanese goods abroad and make them less 
competitive.  As a result, big business is lobsidedly supporting anti-
Tarriff stances, as are the nations that offer FOCs given the trend in 
Globalization that Japan, among other nations, have been pushing.  It 
makes the government seem rather hypocritical.  Still, if the Prime 
Minister opts to expend political capital in support of the FOC Bill, 
it will likely pass with 'some' effort.
 
Internationally, things have revolved around the Article 9 Amendment 
passing, and the intention of the Government to deploy 
internationally.  The contingent addition to Afghanistan has general 
support, not only within the proud military structure, but also by the 
people who see it as a justifiable operation.  Foreign nations, 
especially Japan's traditional Western allies, are grateful for the 
assistance.
 
Even the new Article 9 wording however has riled opposition to 
the 'training' deployments planned for Peru and Israel, putting paid 
to that option even before negotiation could begin.  Those against it 
site the clear and present danger of inserting any amount of forces 
into direct combat in these areas, and point that the defensive clause 
in the amended Article 9 forbids this.  Most believe fighting the 
topic will likely be futile.
 
As far as Thailand is concerned, they are receptive to any information 
the Japanese are willing to provide, however court cases are already 
pending against Japanese companies involved in the corruption.  
They're relatively small, but given that business has had to swallow 
other knock backs in terms of the Parenthood Support Act and the FOC 
Bill, sufficing to say the Prime Minister is not much liked among the 
powerful business concerns of Japan.
 
There have been no responses from either Gabon or Ethiopia, but the 
offers do encourage some good will abroad.  Meanwhile, Japans sharing 
of the intelligence regarding a North Korean nuclear test has made 
some Intelligence agencies envious, albeit grateful for the heads up, 
and will likely pay dividends in the future.
=============================================

KOREA [NORTH] (DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval: 40%
Government Approval: 65%
International Favor: 20%
Economic Growth: 1%, Zero.
Inflation: N/A
Unemployment: 0% *(Actual unemployment estimated to be well above 
50%.)

KRF:
Population Approval: 57%
Cadre Approval: 95%
International Favor: 50%
Funds Available: USD500,000
----------------------------------------------------------

Needless to say, the news from Japanese intelligence sources sends 
North Korea's international standing to new lows.

The KRF's poster campaign has only limited effect, but their provision 
of intel on the DPRK nuclear program gains them favor among those who 
know.
=============================================

SAUDI ARABIA (KINGDOM OF)

Population Approval: 55%
Government Approval: 53%
International Favor: 61%
Economic Growth: 6%, Very Good.
Inflation: 0.5%
Unemployment: 13% *(Estimate for males. Some estimates are as high
as 25%.)
-----

The King's reform proposals face a curious reception. They aren't 
particularly popular domestically (in fact, they're fairly unpopular), 
but are applauded internationally. Despite this, however, the 
opposition is peaceful, if vehement. The thought is raised among 
diplomats that this is a chance for the new King to prove what it 
means to be a leader: Does he do what he thinks is right, or does he 
do what is popular?

=============================================

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Population Approval: 53.5%
Government Approval: 53.5%
International Favor: 51.5%
Economic Growth: 3.2%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.4%
----------------------------------------------------------

The Prime Minister has had a mixed week.
 
The military is left divided in support for him.  A new mass offensive 
in Afghanistan is considered necessary, with estimates of the Taliban 
controling as much as 70% of the country still.  Military planners are 
concerned that they can't possibly initiate a new offensive in 
Afghanistan while maintaining current troop levels in Iraq.  Something 
has to give.
 
In addition, the military is appreciative of the attempt to garner 
international commitments so as to alleve some of the burden.  On the 
other hand, there is considerable apprehension with the small arms 
situation.  Although poorly designed at first, recent improvements 
have made the SA-80 a largely successful weapon system, much like the 
M-16 has developed from it's early stages.  The G-36 however is an 
excellent rifle for the European theather, but a derivative of the G-
36 was used in the XM-8, and although largely approved of in field 
trials, the M-8 suffered from political and practical draw backs... 
most worrying the tendency of the rifle's plastic components to melt 
under intense heat, likely to occur when used in the SAW mode, and 
worsened even more by the Iraqi temperatures.  Furthermore, the rifle 
has yet to be tested under true battle conditions, let alone in a 
desert.  There are reasons to be skeptical of it's performance.
 
Brazil has offered 1,200 troops for Afghanistan, provided their 
deployment costs can be underwritten by the major players, while India 
has made no commitments to date.  In addition, there's grumbling in 
China... a nation which is deploying troops to Lebanon, and was 
notably left 'absent' among the nations to talk to list as far as 
Afghanistan goes.
 
At home, some are unhappy with the Prime Minister's continued support 
of the US after being so apparently 'backstabbed', but others respect 
his loyalty.  
 
The major EU players, particularly France, Germany, and Italy have 
added insult to injury by practically ignoring the UK's response to 
their position on China.  The UK isn't even in the Eurozone, and has 
never been a real team player in terms of EU politics.  Why the hell 
should they sacrifice their own desires then for the sake of the UK?
 
More firmly positively received however is the change back to the 
Boxer program, and the unified front presented by the Republic of 
Ireland and the United Kingdom on the issue of Northern Ireland's 
governance.  
 
As a result, yeah it's been a mixed week, but most likely a 'slim' bit 
better than for worse.

=============================================

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Population Approval: 58%
Government Approval: 57%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 2.8%, Average.
Inflation: 3.1%
Unemployment: 4.6%
----------------------

After a phenomonally successful PR blitz on Anderson Cooper, the 
President could hardly expect the winds to keep blowing his way. 
Indeed, they didn't, and small gusts of opposing winds have begun to 
buffet the new Administration.

First, while the White House reopened under the new rules to general 
applause, it turns out that reopening Pennsylvania Ave., while 
maintaining the capability for shutdowns when necessary, will take 2 
weeks. Beyond that, despite the popular approval, all this is 
happening despite the vigorous objections of the Secret Service, and 
some squirming from Congress.

Second, in an example of the staffed moving faster than the staff, 
only *after* the President had called the unions did everybody's 
staff, POTUS's included, remember that there were in fact projects to 
bring Hollywood to military training going on at the current MOUT 
training sites at Ft. Benning, GA, and Ft. Polk, LA. So the idea was 
quietly shelved, though the President does get kudos for being 
proactive.

Third, a brief tempest ensued when a (badly misquoted) account of the 
conversation between President Williams and the families at the Dover 
arrival ceremony was posted to a blog by a family member.

Though it was resolved when the White House released a tape and a 
transcript of the entire conversation, even the Press Secretary had to 
admit that perhaps the President could have been more direct in saying 
that the Op-Eds idea was well-intentioned, but not exactly the best 
option (which seemed, in context, to be the idea, although horribly 
expressed in a bungled attempt at being diplomatic), and the President 
has been the target of some jokes for his foot-in-mouth moment.

With all that, though, the President's unannounced appearance at Dover 
was greeted fairly well (if with mutterings of "it's about time", 
given that his predecessor had never made such an appearance), as was 
his surprising candidness with the family members.

That said, the overall loosening of media restrictions on the return 
of fallen troops is hailed as a victory for transparency and freedom 
of the press, but it has a (presumably unintended) side effect, in 
that actually seeing flag-draped coffins on TV has tended to depress 
support for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and also feed Americans' 
frustrations with both wars.

=============================================

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA
Population Approval: 59%
Government Approval: 57%
International Favor: 55%
Economic Growth: 3.2%, Average.
Inflation: 2.5%
Unemployment: 5.4%
-------------------

No news of significance.

===============================================

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

NOTE: Initial indicators were gleaned from as recent sources as 
possible, for the most recent term possible (annualized). In some 
cases, the numbers used are published estimates, but the English- 
speaking nations' data is more or less right from the source.

Depression: Economic forces retracting uncontrolably and at a 
dangerous pace with little end in sight.

Recession: Economic forces retracting, but more shallow than 
Depression and more controlably. Sometimes necessary and part of 
regular economic trends, although prelonged.

Revision: Economic forces retracting slightly and short term, 
associated with economic systems refitting to accomodate new 
industries, concentrations, etc.

Zero: No movement one way or the other.

Low: Comparatively low Economic growth/activity. (miniscule to about 
2%, depending)

Good: Average economic activity (ranging from 2%-5% normally)

High: Above average performance (Greater than 5%) Sometimes 
dangerous if in excess of 8% continuously.

SITES OF INTEREST

WAR Website: http://war.dagarcia.net/
Nova Horizon Simulations: http://www.novahorizon.com
United Nations: http://www.un.org/
Central Intelligence Agency: http://www.cia.gov/
CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
Federation of American Scientists: http://www.fas.org/
GlobalSecurity.org: http://www.globalsecurity.org/
CNN: http://www.cnn.com/
BBC: http://www.bbc.com/
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/



More information about the War mailing list