[War] UK/ROC: "The Meeting"

[Michael Downey]

"The Meeting"
Deputy Foreign Secretary Hershaw
Representative Lee Chung Wai
4 October 2006
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

<London>

To Britain, the ROC did not exist. They maintained no diplomatic relations
with the Taiwanese government, and Westminster shared the US Congress' view
that there was only a single China.

But the FCO was smart enough to know the PRC ruled Taiwan as much as Britain
ruled the United States. And with everything that was happening in the South
Pacific involving the small island, it had become prudent to hold an
'unofficial' meeting with a representative from the ROC government, a
meeting that would never be formally recognized or recorded.

Hershaw, the Deputy Foreign Secretary, waited in the conference room for the
Taiwanese emissary to arrive.

Lee Chung Wai, the appointed representative of the Taiwanese government and
de facto Ambassador to London was readily appointed by the President only a
few days ago. After receiving requests for an audience (through unofficial
channels) from the UK government, President Tang appointed Mr. Lee readily
given his years as a member of the Legislative Yuan, his last position also
being Ambassador to the Dominican Republic, one of the few nations to still
recognize the Republic of China.

When he entered the conference room he nodded in respect to the Deputy
Foreign Secretary opposite of him. He laid out his papers and on his end of
the table, his agenda and his instructions was clear from the President
himself. When he took his seat an uncomfortable silence settled in. It was
unusual to be allowed to meet with any government official from the UK even
though it being the minor position of the Deputy Foreign Secretary. Breaking
the ice Lee spoke up, "My name is Lee Chung Wai, I have been 'contracted' by
the President of the Republic of China to represent Taipei's interests in
these talks."

"I am Deputy Secretary Hershaw," replied the Englishman. "The FCO has
requested to unofficially meet with a representative of your
organization regarding the recent diplomatic probes by Taiwan to gain
access to European arms technology."

"I see" Lee jotted down a few notes in his papers, he looked back at D.
Secretary Hershaw and spoke up once again. "Taiwan has had a long standing
arms relationship with the United States and has continued so with the
Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. Under that act the US has been quote,
'required to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character' end quote.
We have been merely exploring new equipment and products to better promote
the defense of our nation." He took another moment to look at his papers and
again continued. "Our recent probes to European Arms technology is merely an
expansion into inquiring about new arms. Over the years we made deals with
France and the Netherlands under those same general inquiries. Most of our
inquiries have been for defensive arms and technology suit to the continued
defense of Taiwan and the status quo standoff with the mainland."

"And what specifically is it that you wish to have?" pressed Hershaw.
"What systems, units and weapons does your government want us to sell
them?" If Britain was even going to consider this, details were needed.

Lee made sure to be careful about how he would phrase his requests. He
didn't want to give the wrong impression that Taiwan was seeking to
massively bloat it's armed forces for some futile attack. However his
debriefing from the President made it clear that they must maintain their
technological superiority in order to counter the mainland's massive
numbers. "For one we want to be able to find a replacement craft for our
aging fleet of F-5 fighters. Our fighter numbers comprise of 146 F-16
Eagles, 128 F-CKs and 56 Mirage 2000-5. Although our air force is highly
trained and well equipped, we're afraid that any dip in numbers and
capability will only compromise our security from invasion."

Lee flipped another page in his binder and spoke again. "We also want to
make possible procurements on fast attack submarines to counter any
amphibious invasion force. As of this moment we only have two fast attack
subs bought from the Dutch (based off from the US Barbel Class Sub) we
currently have NT$412 billion dollars allocated towards acquiring eight of
these fast attack subs which were likely to come from the US until the new
administration fell through. So for security sake we want subs."

Lee looked back into his files before speaking once again, he paused for a
moment taking detailed care into what his government was requesting next.
"As you know Taiwan has a fairly sophisticated network of surface to surface
and SAM networks around the island. We want to expand on those networks and
continue to upgrade them, keeping in mind that we seek only limited range
missiles within the defensive radius of Taiwan." Lee closed his binder and
paid his full attention to the Deputy Foreign Secretary. "All and all,
Taiwan's Military is in good shape, not excellent. We want to improve our
defensive capabilities in the event that the mainland carries out it's anti
succession doctrine, and as long as that piece of legislation exists within
Communist China we will continue to seek out more equipment and develop our
own to exercise our 'sovereignty and maintain the status quo we've all
enjoyed"

Hershaw inwardly frowned. Fighters, subs and SAMs were advanced,
expensive and not to mention powerful weapons. Weapons that China was
pressuring the EU to sell. The FCO knew that selling any of said
systems to Taiwan would have grave political fallout with the PRC. And
when you got right down to it, relations with the PRC were more
important than Taiwan.

In that lied the problem. Taiwan was a democracy. With a president and
legislature chosen through what most governments and NGO's agreed was
more or less a fair system. Red China was a dictatorship that had not
so long ago massacred thousands of its own students when they had
dared to call for democratic reform.

Did Britain support the PRC and maintain stability, or do what many
would call the more moral thing and support democratic Taiwan yet
cause tension with over a sixth of the human race.

"Many people in my government worry that Beijing would regard us
selling weapons to you as British support of the creation of a
Republic of Taiwan," said Hershaw. "I want it to be clear, we stand
behind the USA's One China policy."

"And we wouldn't expect any less. The nitty gritty though is that the PRC
has again and again indirectly threatened to invade and attack Taiwan. Some
examples would be their firing missiles and conducting 'military exercises'
dangerously close to our waters. With out a proper surface fleet we would be
highly vulnerable to an ever growing and Russian and possibly western
equip ed blue water navy. We're not asking for top of the line missiles or
subs, just equipment that would be advanced enough with the thought of
defending the island." Lee stopped and looked through his notes once again.

"Just to remind you Mr. Deputy Secretary, the western world has equipped
most of our armed forces already, with the US providing us with frigates,
destroyers, F-16 fighter craft, subs and over 200 Patriot SAMs. This kind of
arrangement isn't exactly new and despite PRC protests has always happened.
The PRC needs you as much as they you need them for sure,  but besides from
some bitc-....excuse me. Besides from some protests and threats nothing more
will emerge from the PRC, we're not asking for advanced technology to
somehow overthrow the communists. We're not naive nor stupid to ask for that
type of equipment, we just want subs that are designed for short range
sovereignty of our shores and fighters to maintain our air superiority over
the PLAAF's slowly advancing equipment, maintain the fact that if they
attack they'll probably win but take a hell of a loss"

"There is a fear among my government that your President will declare
Taiwan's unilateral independence," noted Hershaw. "This /will/ trigger
a war between Taiwan and China that Britain does not want to see. The
FCO is uncomfortable with the idea that by giving you weapons, we
bolster your belief that you have our support to form a 'Republic of
Taiwan.' You do not. So, sir, I must ask: what reason other than
Taiwan declaring independence does China have to attack you?"

"Do you think we're stupid? Do you think if we receive these weapons and
defensive systems that all of the sudden we will think we're in a position
to fight the PRC for our Independence? The mainland has threatened this
nation three times with missiles 'tests' around our port cities over the
last half century. These procurements is for the sake of ensuring that this
state remains intact without any military or diplomatic bullying, whether
this state is official or not. Are you so naive to believe that the PRC's
recent push for new arms is solely for self defense and not so it can
potentially position itself to pressure us to reintergrate with the
mainland, or unilaterally take the spartly islands in the south china sea?"
Lee was growing increasingly frustrated with the British diplomat in his
perceived short sightedness.

"Here's the bottom line, If the mainland arms, we must resupply and reequip
to maintain that technological and training gap to ensure that the mainland
thinks twice about unilateral invasion. If they attack they will do so
knowing that they will lose a lot of blood for this island. We hope to god
that Xia's political reforms are just the start of something great in
political liberalization but until that happens we can't take the chance of
sitting around while the mainland advance their weapons and gain even more
political leverage against us, what would you do in our position
unofficially?"

Hershaw, for his part, maintained his composure. "We disagree on
several points," noted the British diplomat. "First and foremost I
have trouble taking your seriously if you want us to believe there is
a real chance China is going to invade the Spratly Islands. It may be
disputed, but they have not shown any signs thus far of wanting to
annex the chain by force. Secondly, we do
not think that the PRC will unilaterally attack or invade Taiwan
unless you either declare independence or attempt to develop nuclear
arms. Since you claim that you intend to maintain the status quo, we
do not anticipate Taiwan attacking your island very soon.

"You must understand, relations with the PRC are paramount to Britain
over that of the ROC. We do not even acknowledge you exist as a
country. And if we sell you weapons now, then it will completely
alienate the Mainland from ever buying arms from Britain. Maybe even
the whole EU. And they can buy far more than you can.

"At the moment, the best we can offer is to help your military
maintain and refurbish your existing equipment. A direct sale of arms,
any arms, to Taiwan will have to wait until we have had time to
discuss it with our American and EU allies. That is not to say we are
saying no. But the United Kingdom is just a single player in the
European arms industry. Your government is going to have to wait for
an answer."

Lee rose from his seat and bid a respective nod before leaving. "And my
government will be eagerly awaiting your response sir. Thank you for seeing
us and hearing our concerns, we don't want to buy arms but if the PRC
persists we will explore all options through purchases or indigenous
developments in our defensive and strategic options."
---

Actions:
1) Britain reaffirms it is against Taiwan unilaterally declaring
independence and reaffirms support for the United States' 'One China'
policy.
2) Britain will assist the ROC military in refurbishing its existing
military hardware
3) The option of the ROC buying arms from Great Britain is not open
for discussion until London has had time to discuss the proposal with
the United States and the rest of the European Union.