[War] Ethiopia: Escalations (2)

[David McGrogan]

Ethiopia: Escalations (2)
Prime Minister Zalelew Wami
30th of July 2006

Zalelew was with his cabinet in the sunlit surroundings of an anonymous room 
in a corner of the Assembly building. They'd been waiting for an hour. 
Everybody was smoking.

The message had come from the EDF's Intelligence Bureau in the middle of a 
routine meeting over tax policy an hour ago: Another Antonov cargo plane, 
filed with up to 50 tons of military equipment, including anti-aircraft 
guns, had left an airfield near Asmara, Eritrea, and was heading for 
Mogadishu. EDF-IB men in Mogadishu had immediately been notified; they'd be 
able to confirm any second that the Antonov had arrived. If they did, it was 
at least the third plane-load of arms to arrive in Mogadishu from Eritrea in 
the past week.

Zalelew's eyes met Ibrahem's. They were certain by now that Eritrea was 
arming the Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia - gearing them up for an 
assault on the legitemate Transitional Government in Baidoa and possible 
confrontation with Ethiopian troops stationed there. It was harder for 
Ibrahem than any of them - his mother was a Somali. But Zalelew knew that, 
like all the government, Ibrahem knew the Union of Islamic Courts had to be 
opposed. A Taliban-style regime couldn't be allowed to gain power of a 
nation on Ethiopia's doorstep.

There was a knock on the door, and an EDF-IB man slipped inside, closing the 
door carefully behind him. "It's been confirmed," he said quietly. "The 
Antonov's arrived in Mogadishu."

Zalelew nodded. "Well then," he said to the others. "It would seem our 
Eritrean friends are looking for a war between the Union of Islamic Courts 
and the Transitional Government. Let's see if they have the guts to go 
through with it. We'll need to reinforce our troops down there in Baidoa."

"You mean for the army to stay in Somalia?" said Mrs. Saille, the Minister 
of Finance.

"Yes," said Zalelew. "Without our help the Transitional Government will fall 
to the Islamists. I can't accept such a situation. It would be disastrous 
for Ethiopia."

"And for Somalia too," said Ibrahem.

"Quite," said Zalelew. "But if we play this right, it might not come to a 
fight at all. With a show of force on our part, the UIC might decide they 
don't have a chance of victory through force and they'll be driven to 
negotiate with the government."

Mrs. Saille coughed. "What happens if they don't back down?"

Zalelew folded his arms. "There'll be a war."

TBC

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