[War] World Report, July 17 - July 23

[Daniel Garcia]

WAR:  World Report

- For all actions to July 23rd, 2006.

United Nations Security Council (Permanent Members):  United States,  
United Kingdom, France, China, Russia

United Nations Security Council (Members through July 31, 2006):   
Argentina, Denmark, Greece, Qatar, Slovakia

United Nations Security Council (Members through August 31, 2006):   
Congo-Brazzaville, Ghana, Peru, Japan, Tanzania

United Nations Security Council (Members from August 1, 2006):   
Canada, Gabon, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Venezuela

Pending UN Security Council Actions:  None

Pending UN General Assembly Actions:  None

United Nations Secretariat:  No news.

===============================================

WORLD NEWS  (Please review the following topics for potential posting  
fodder)

WAR NEWS NETWORK:  ISRAEL MASSES FORCES AT LEBANESE BORDER

Jerusalem (WNN):    In a sign that the crisis between Israel and  
Lebanon may yet worsen further, Israel is reportedly massing troops  
along its border with Lebanon.  The current crisis flared after a 12  
July raid by Hezbollah militants into Israel resulting in the deaths  
of eight Israeli soldiers and the capture of two.  The major stated  
aim of the Israeli operations has been to secure the return of the  
two captured soldiers.

To date, much of the conflict has been waged at a distance, via  
rocket attacks on the part of Hezbollah and aerial and artillery  
bombardments on the part of Israel.  However, over recent days small  
numbers of Israeli forces have penetrated small distances into  
Lebanon, battling Hezbollah militants.  This followed hints by  
Israeli officials of a ground campaign, and warnings broadcast to the  
Lebanese populace to evacuate their homes and head for safer areas.   
It is estimated that at least 500,000 Lebanese have fled the violence.

In a sign that Israel may shortly escalate the situation, Israel has  
been building up their ground forces.  An undetermined number of  
Israeli reservists were called up on Friday, 21 July.  Official  
speaking anonymously and analysts say that only a few thousand troops  
have been called up for the purpose of taking the place of regular  
troops that have been sent to the border.

The have also been reports that Israel is building a detention center  
for militants it anticipates capturing in any ground offensive  
against Hezbollah into Lebanon.  Meantime, United Nations Interim  
Force in Lebanon, almost 2000 strong with a battalion each from Ghana  
and India and significant contributions from China, France, and  
Poland, has been under severe pressure since the beginning of  
hostilities in its area of operation.


WAR NEWS NETWORK:  DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO END MIDDLE EAST CRISIS CONTINUE

New York (WNN):    On Thursday, 20 July, United Nations Secretary  
General Kofi Annan called for an end to hostilities in and over  
Lebanon, the return of the two Israeli prisoners, an expanded  
peacekeeping force, a donor conference, and other measures to repair  
the situation.  This followed several days of intense diplomacy by  
several major international players, including the United Kingdom and  
India urging a cease fire.

To date, these efforts have not borne fruit, as Hezbollah remains  
intent on keeping its prisoners and resisting the Israeli military  
campaign, and Israel remains intent on returning its captured  
soldiers and removing Hezbollah's ability to strike at Israeli  
territory.  However, diplomatic pressure continues to mount, and  
there may be an opportunity for a cease fire.  However, it is  
believed by analysts that Israel will probably not accept any  
resolution that leaves Hezbollah with the ability to strike at  
Israel.  With the recent demand by the new American President that  
the Israelis be careful to hit what their aiming at, not inflict  
civilian casualties, and refrain from a general invasion, Israel has  
been given pause, reinforced by early chatter among those in the  
international community on the possibility of reinforcing UNIFIL.   
Moreover, initial international approaches to the Lebanese government  
on the subject of a new or enlarged international presence in the  
country has been unofficially well received by Lebanese officials.

Much of the activity in trying to pressure the two sides to adopt a  
cease fire has fallen on Syria.  To date, it is believed that Syria  
has not acted to hold back or encourage Hezbollah since the beginning  
of the crisis, though it is though that Syria is an important conduit  
for arms, munitions, and funds from Iran to Hezbollah.  Syrian  
officials have, to date, denied that they have any influence over  
events in Lebanon since their forced withdrawal from that country.   
Some have suggested a more active, engaging approach towards Syria  
could pay dividends, and sources in the United States State  
Department say that the new President has begun to pressure Syria on  
this front.  To date, Syria has remained silent, though analysts  
believe that the government is being consumed by major discussions on  
what course of action to take.

Finally, many nations continue to evacuate their citizens from  
Lebanon.  Japan, South Korea, and Thailand have all completed their  
evacuations, thanks to the Japanese government.  The United States,  
the United Kingdom, France, Egypt, and India are in the midst of  
evacuations by sea, air, and land, with a small Canadian navy  
flotilla heading to assist, and the United States government having  
hired a handful of cargo ships currently being prepared for  
occupation by those wishing to flee.  It is estimated that there are  
significantly over 300,000 foreign nationals in Lebanon, most of  
which wish to leave.  Of this number, no more than 20,000 have been  
evacuated so far.  Some have called this the greatest evacuation  
since Dunkirk during World War II.


WAR NEWS NETWORK:  GLOBAL SHOCK OVER SHOOTING OF US PRESIDENT, DEATH  
OF VICE PRESIDENT

Washington, DC (WNN):    The world reacted with shock at the events  
which led to the incapacitation of United States President George W.  
Bush and the death of his Vice President Dick Cheney.  The events,  
being unexpected and flowing from directions which no one had  
expected that they could come, have resulted in condolences from  
around the world.

In Europe, the European Commission expressed it's "sympathy and  
solidarity with the American people over their recent tragedy", with  
the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany coming to pay  
their respects to the recovering Bush personally.  It is said that  
these meetings were short.

In the Middle East, several heads of state paid their respects, such  
as the leaders of Jordan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and  
Qatar, while in parts of Saudi Arabia and other areas there were  
celebrations.  Those in Saudi Arabia, however, were brought short by  
the ongoing government crackdown there.

Finally, some have noted the seeming return of the curse to all  
Presidents elected in years divisible by 20.  Since the term of  
President William Henry Harrison, who was elected in 1840, all  
Presidents elected in such years have died in office.  President  
Reagan had been the victim of an attempted assassination, but  
survived to break the streak.  And while President Bush has not died,  
he has been forced to leave office, which strangely fits the pattern  
to some.
===============================================

ACTION RESPONSES
=============================

CANADA

Population Approval:  56%
Government Approval:  55%
International Favor:  60%
Economic Growth:  3.3%, Low.
Inflation:  1.7%
Unemployment:  6.1%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The dust is still settling on the recent fall from grace of Stephen  
Harper's Conservatives so soon after their initial victory.  The  
Liberals under new leader Jennifer Bindahri managed to narrow the  
Conservatives' plurality, enough that she was able to unseat them via  
a bold coalition with the New Democratic Party.  The populace's heads  
are kind of spinning, and half-joking comparisons to Italy are making  
the rounds.  All in all, people are eagerly awaiting for the most  
part the new government, though are marginally concerned about the  
strength of the coalition and the previous scandals in the Liberal  
Party.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister-designate Binhari has achieved kudos for  
her efforts on the behalf of Canadian citizens stranded in Lebanon,  
in concert with the British.  This patriotic play has gotten the head  
of government to be a good start on her term in office.  Meantime,  
the HMCS Protector and HMCS Toronto are en-route to Lebanon, expected  
to arrive late afternoon Friday, July 28th, local time, while the  
first Canadian citizens are expected to be evacuated by British  
forces by the end of the weekend.
=============================================

CHINA (PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval:  55%
Government Approval:  65%
International Favor:  45%
Economic Growth:  9%, High.
Inflation:  2.5%
Unemployment:  4.2% *(Urban registered.  Estimated total varies  
widely from 10% to over 20%)
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The recent change in leadership to President Hong Xia has left many  
people scratching their heads.  That China now has a female leader  
has startled many, and given some conservatives heart attacks.   
Fortunately, most people who would care are content to watch, so long  
as the prosperity continues, which it certainly appears to be doing.   
Some very, very quiet voices, however, wonder what happened to  
several prominent Communist Party members.  Most people know better  
to ask.
=============================================

GABONESE REPUBLIC

Population Approval:  55%
Government Approval:  55%
International Favor:  55%
Economic Growth:  2.3%, Average.
Inflation:  1.5%
Unemployment:  22% *(Estimate)
-----------------------------------------------------------------

When President El Hadj Omar Bongo Ondimba passed away after such a  
long rule, since 1967, the country shivered.  After all, the vast  
majority of the people of Gabon were born and raised under President  
Bongo's rule, so there was some disconcertedness and uncertainty  
following the news of his passing.  However, this stunned feeling  
also proved to be a perfect environment for the relatively unknown  
Jean Mbembe to be made President, and all has gone smoothly.  The  
people meanwhile, moving past Bongo, have begun waiting with  
anticipation to see how the new President will act.  The rumors that  
the President had quietly asked for reports on the status of the  
country have made a favorable first impression.
=============================================

INDIA (REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval:  55%
Government Approval:  55%
International Favor:  55%
Economic Growth:  9.3%, High.
Inflation:  5%
Unemployment:  9.2%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

With the Indian elections over, the President's party has solidified  
it's hold on Indian politics.  Pundits credit the disgraceful  
behavior of the former government, and the described 'heroic' actions  
of the President.  As a result, BJP now holds a true majority of  
legislative seats with 280.  However the unexpected effect has been  
that many of these seats have come at the expense of allied parties  
as much as the opposition.  As a result, most allied parties have  
thrown their support behind BJP in hopes their platforms are heard  
and represented.  Only about 40 of the remaining seats can be  
considered allied to the BJP.  This leaves 223 seats, 100 of which  
belong to INC, with 60 allied seats.  The rest either belong out  
right to the Communists or their allies.

Internationally, the early and tempered reaction of the President to  
events developing in Lebanon has helped contribute to an image of  
strong leadership, and informally aided in consolidating authority  
further in his hands among the politically well connected.  All the  
governments approached, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangledesh have  
officially thanked the Indian government for their most generous  
offer, and accepted the help whole heartedly.  Things are being  
complicated however, as there is some question to exactly how many,  
if any, nationals from these nations are actually involved in  
Lebanon.  The governments are scrambling to provide what data they  
can, however embarrassingly enough it may not be much.  The Lebanese  
government has ofcourse approved the pending operations as a show of  
good faith to the Indian government, and it's eagerness to protect  
civilian lives.

The troops involved are highly motivated and in excellent morale.   
They are bringing with them the best equipment India has to offer,  
and more importantly are convinced whole heartedly of their mission  
and their ability to succeed, after all there can be no more  
righteous a cause than the peaceful defense of one's countrymen.  The  
assembled fleet will be on station in approximately a week, and will  
arrive 'ready to go' for operations.  Evacuation operations are  
likely to take an additional three to five days, depending on how  
helpful local authorities and the Israeli government are, and how  
many foreign nationals will be taken aboard.

Shuttle diplomacy between Syria and Israel isn't bearing much fruit.   
Syria stands ardently by the fact that they have little or no pull  
left in Lebanon since their extrication, and aren't either harboring  
the Israeli soldiers or supplying Hezbollah.  Israel continues to  
insist Syria is a strong influence, and malevolent force through the  
terrorist organization in Lebanese politics.  Lebanon however is  
quietly signaling an Indian Peacekeeping force would be welcomed, and  
the sooner the better.  Rumor has it that if Israel persists in it's  
attacks, the Lebanese army may have no choice but to stage some kind  
of defensive action.  Furthermore suggestions are being made that  
Israeli policy and paranoia is partly to blame.  The question of who  
will pay for Israel's actions remain up in the air... sadly enough a  
lot of Lebanese progress made since the end of the bloody Civil War  
has become undone in the air campaign.
=============================================

JAPAN

Population Approval:  53%
Government Approval:  55%
International Favor:  55%
Economic Growth:  2.5%, Average, Picking Up.
Inflation:  0.6%
Unemployment:  4%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The new Prime Minister, Shunichi Sato, was welcomed warmly in the  
wake of the change in leadership from Koizumi and the recent  
elections.  This warm and fuzzy feeling quickly evaporated as a  
bitter and controversial dispute arose over the Prime Minister's  
quiet attempts to gather support to change the sensitive Article 9 of  
the Constitution, which limits Japan's military courses of action.   
The debate has three sides, with the two larger ones arguing for and  
against the proposed change, or any such change.  There is a smaller  
group that argues against any change and insists that the Self  
Defense Force is a violation of the current article.  This third  
group has little support, but is vocal.

With respect to the new and vigorous debates on the article, there  
seems to be a comfortable majority who favor some change that would  
legalize the Self Defense Forces.  Where the waters get murkier is  
whether any such changes should extend so far as to allow Japan to  
use force in international disputes, and under what circumstances.   
It has been a long standing opinion of many, supported in the past by  
the United States, that the article either does or should allow  
Japanese participation in peacekeeping efforts, mostly United Nations  
efforts but also to a lesser extent collective defense efforts.   
However, whether the article should allow the use of force  
preemptively or in advance of any possible danger or aggression is a  
point of fierce debate, division, and question.  Another factor is  
the recent North Korean missile launches, which has influenced many  
towards supporting a more assertive defensive stance.

In the realm of practical international affairs, Japan's response to  
North Korea's recent, widely condemned missile tests has met with  
widespread support among the people.  The embargo of North Korea will  
be easy to enforce, and is likely to face little opposition.  In the  
meantime, the Prime Minister's move to decentralize control of  
missile defenses has led to a debate inside the SDF as to where the  
authorization to shoot down missiles should lay.  The emerging  
opinion is that it should be the jurisdiction of the commander of the  
emerging Anti-Missile Command, though until that organization is  
fully up and running, the decision lays in the hands of the  
commanders on the spot.  As to the Anti-Missile Command, it is slowly  
coming together, with the greatest delaying factors being the need to  
work out arrangements to integrate sea based systems without removing  
the independence of action  of the ships upon which they are based  
for more conventional naval duties.

In the final international act of the Prime Minister's busy week,  
arrangements have been completed to evacuate all Japanese, Thai, and  
South Korean nationals, along with a hodge-podge from other East  
Asian nations, from Lebanon.  They should arrive in Japan by July  
24.  The Chinese government declined the assistance of the Japanese  
government, with analysts speculating pride and the often tense  
relations between the two nations being the reasons.
=============================================

KOREA [NORTH] (DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF)

Population Approval:  45%
Government Approval:  65%
International Favor:  35%
Economic Growth:  1%, Zero.
Inflation:  N/A
Unemployment:  0% *(Actual unemployment estimated to be well above 50%.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------

A small resistance movement, styling itself the Korean Revolutionary  
Force (KRF), has quietly and covertly contacted officials from South  
Korea, Japan, and the United States, asking for aid in their cause of  
overthrowing the Kim regime.  The KRF contacts insinuated that their  
situation was becoming difficult as they had grown bolder.
=============================================

SAUDI ARABIA (KINGDOM OF)

Population Approval:  55%
Government Approval:  55%
International Favor:  55%
Economic Growth:  6%, Very Good.
Inflation:  0.5%
Unemployment:  13% *(Estimate for males.  Some estimates are as high  
as 25%.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The news of King Abdallah's assassination sent shock-waves throughout  
Saudi Arabia.  In some places there were celebrations by radicals, in  
the markets there was a small panic.  For the most part, there was  
sorrow, for much had been hoped of Abdallah.  The new King, King Ali,  
signaled the end of the reigns of the children of Saudi Arabia's  
first king, and ushered in new youth to the government.  The  
crackdown that has followed his ascension has succeeded in catching  
several radicals close to the assassin, as well as other militants.   
At the moment they are in the custody of the security forces,  
awaiting their fate.  The rest of the country, and indeed the world,  
is also awaiting their fates as they are influenced by events in oil  
rich Saudi Arabia.
=============================================

UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND

Population Approval:  55%
Government Approval:  55%
International Favor:  55%
Economic Growth:  3.2%, Average.
Inflation:  2.5%
Unemployment:  5.4%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The series of surprises that have led to Prime Minister Owen Eckley's  
ascension to the Premiership of the country, including the early  
resignation of Blair and the defeat of Gordon Brown, has been well  
received by a population that was perhaps aching for new leadership,  
both due to the outstanding political climate and also simply due to  
time.  In any case, the Prime Minister has had a warm reception.

And with his new office, the Prime Minister hasn't wasted any time,  
quickly beginning attempts at trying to achieve a cease fire in the  
escalating Israeli-Lebanese crisis, sending  Foreign Secretary  
Hollstadt to India to meet with Indian President Kanchwala, and  
making a personal visit to Canada.  The Prime Minister has received  
kudos domestically for his handling of the Middle Eastern crisis, and  
for his work to evacuate British and Canadian nationals, and  
assisting the Indian government in the same.  These acts have drawn  
favorable comparisons with the more activist Blair, who some half- 
joke would have rammed through a peacekeeping force.

On the domestic front, the Educational Enrichment Bill is making its  
way through Parliament.  Fiscal hawks have criticized the measure,  
and others have argued that the extra time won't mean much without  
improving the day-to-day quality of the educational system first.   
Among the populace, there is a duality to opinion, particularly among  
parents.  On the one hand, improved education is something everyone  
wants, but on the other hand there is a guilt at robbing the youth of  
so much vacation time.  This has resulted in a somewhat lukewarm  
acceptance of the measure among the people.  When this feeling became  
clear, the Prime Minister's supporters started bragging for all they  
were worth for this amazing educational opportunity.  After all,  
education is very important.  Finally, some students have staged  
isolated protests around the country, with most students simply  
complaining about loosing their vacation time.
=============================================

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Population Approval:  55%
Government Approval:  55%
International Favor:  55%
Economic Growth:  2.8%, Average.
Inflation:  3.1%
Unemployment:  4.6%
-----------------------------------------------------------------

The near assassination and incapacitation of President Bush shocked  
the country.  Sure his approval ratings were miniscule, but he was  
still the President, so most of the country was left in a state of  
disbelief, with only a small majority openly expressing their  
satisfaction.  When Vice President Cheney keeled over shortly  
afterward, victim to his fifth heart attack, the shock was deepened.   
And with shock, there was confusion, for it must be said that few  
Americans could name the Speaker of the House, or even knew that the  
Speaker was next in line.  Thus the beginning of President Williams'  
term must be one of learning:  of the electorate learning about their  
new chief executive, and of their chief executive learning about his  
new circumstances.

The former Representative from New Jersey faces an interesting course  
ahead.  President Bush's endorsement will help him with conservative  
Republicans, particularly those of the Religious Right, analysts  
predict, but there are questions about the new President's positions  
- having been elected from a Democratic district in at best a purple  
state - and his age and experience, being the youngest American  
President ever by several years and having fully entered politics  
since the turn of the century.  However, the people are rallying  
around the new President at the moment, and also, again, at the  
moment appear to be patient.  But one thing everyone agrees is that  
it will be an interesting few years.

And as a start to these curious years, the use of the recent events  
to put a spotlight on mental illness, and as an example of American  
democracy at work has been applauded by educators and mental health  
advocates.  In particular, it has opened a debate on the handling of  
mental health in America and the military, with Democrats advocating  
a national mental health program and Republicans pushing for stricter  
mental health tests for the military.  Practically, the former would  
be expensive and the latter might thin the already shallow pool of  
recruits.

In the meantime, funeral arrangements for Vice President Cheney are  
moving ahead, with the funeral itself expected to be a relatively  
small affair to be held in Wyoming, at the request of his wife.  The  
markets, which were mercifully closed over the weekend, are expected  
to have absorbed the tragedy and be reassured that the government  
will still be there in the morning, partly thanks to the new  
President's acting to reassure them of such.  Of course, with  
everything in the world going as it's going these days, there are  
plenty of other reasons the market could go down.

Finally, discussions have begun as to the future of the holding  
facilities at Guantanamo Bay.  It seems clear that something must be  
done to make it's operations more transparent and palatable, or  
perhaps, given all the bad press, to close it and shift the prisoners  
to other facilities.  Of course, as this all has to be balanced by  
the need for security.  At the moment, the various departments  
involved appear to be at a loss.  One suggestion which has percolated  
up through the depths of the State Department is that whatever their  
eventual fate, they should be treated in the best, and not the worst,  
traditions of American prisoner holding, to set a shining example  
after a poor one of how such situations should be handled in the future.
=============================================

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

NOTE:  Initial indicators were gleaned from as recent sources as  
possible, for the most recent term possible (annualized).  In some  
cases, the numbers used are published estimates, but the English- 
speaking nations' data is more or less right from the source.

Depression:  Economic forces retracting uncontrolably and at a  
dangerous pace with little end in sight.

Recession:  Economic forces retracting, but more shallow than  
Depression and more controlably.  Sometimes necessary and part of  
regular economic trends, although prelonged.

Revision:  Economic forces retracting slightly and short term,  
associated with economic systems refitting to accomodate new  
industries, concentrations, etc.

Zero:  No movement one way or the other.

Low:  Comparatively low Economic growth/activity.  (miniscule to  
about 2%, depending)

Good:  Average economic activity (ranging from 2%-5% normally)

High:  Above average performance  (Greater than 5%)  Sometimes  
dangerous if in excess of 8% continuously.

SITES OF INTEREST

W.A.R. Website:  http://war.dagarcia.net/
United Nations:  http://www.un.org/
Central Intelligence Agency:  http://www.cia.gov/
CIA World Factbook:  https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
Federation of American Scientists:  http://www.fas.org/
GlobalSecurity.org:  http://www.globalsecurity.org/
CNN:  http://www.cnn.com/
BBC:  http://www.bbc.com/
New York Times:  http://www.nytimes.com/