[War] Ethiopia - Surrounded by Wolves

[David McGrogan]

Surrounded by Wolves
Prime Minister Zalelew Wami
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Date - 24/7/06
======================================

23rd of July, 2006, 11am.

President Wolde-Giorgis had once heard from an American IMF representative 
that "in New England, there are three seasons; it has just been Winter, or 
Winter is coming, or it is Winter"; he'd replied that the same was true of 
lowland Ethiopia, except there it was almost always summer. Almost always 
hot, dry, and sun-bleached.

But Addis Ababa was different. Here cool breezes blew softly inland from 
down the line of the Great Rift Valley, and the city's high elevation lifted 
it above the arid lowlands and their murdurous heat. Here in the mountains a 
man could relax. This was a jewel of a city, and as soon as he stepped off 
the plane he felt glad to be home.

But in all its long history, the city had rarely known peace. The current 
era was no different. The ruling party, the EPRDF, was in trouble - beset by 
internecine squabbling and accusations of election fraud last autumn that 
had forced it to flood Addis Ababa with Federal Police and seen dozens of 
protesters killed. The opposition - the Coalition for Unity and Democracy - 
had won all government and city council seats in the city in the previous 
election, and opposition parties had seen their total share of government 
leap from 12 seats before the election to 176 afterwards.

Worse, there was trouble on the borders. In Somalia there was a reignition 
of all-out civil war, instigated, some said, by the Americans. In Sudan the 
Darfur crisis continued to lurch from bad to worse, showing no sign of being 
resolved. There was tough rhetoric from Eritrea over the disputed shared 
border. Tit-for-tat murders and cattle rustling were raging between rival 
clans on either side of the Kenya-Ethiopia border. Everywhere, there were 
problems.

And to top it off, the Prime Minister, Menes Zelawi, was dead. The wise, 
strong father of the nation, lost in the wreckage of his crashed limousine 
on the way back from the Etritrean border. Zalelew Wami, whose name meant 
"to leap in victory", and who had already earned himself a reputation as the 
hard-man of Zelawi's cabinet as Minister of Defense, had just been named his 
successor.


24th of July 2006, 10pm.

Zalelew Wami sat back and watched the night-time streets of Addis Ababa, his 
Addis Ababa, stream by as his limousine swept its way through the traffic. 
His acceptance speech had gone well. He'd been forceful and eloquent, 
emotive but not emotional, sharing sentiment with the people without being 
sentimental. He'd taken the first step. But the next ones would be tougher, 
and a dark mood had settled over him.

There was a party on the outskirts of town in his cousin's villa - a 
gathering of family and friends, as well as politicians; the great and good 
of Addis Ababa society, all waiting his arrival. Waiting to celebrate. But 
he didn't feel capable of doing it - not yet, not with so much to be anxious 
about.

"Isaiah?" he said to his chauffeur softly.

"Yes?" Isaiah's voice came softly over the intercom. Isaiah was an Ethiopian 
Jew, and a man who treated words like they were 1000 Birr notes.

"Before we go to the villa, we're going to swing by the Mountain," Zalelew 
said. "You know the place." He saw Isaiah's head incline forward slightly, 
and smiled.

Then he had his mobile phone out and was making a call.

"Yes?"

"Cousin? It's Zelalew. Meet me on the mountain in 20 minutes. Bring Desta, 
and Ibrahem."

*****************************

'The Mountain' was a hidden bend of road on the lower skirts of Mount 
Entoto, where one could stand on clear nights like this and look out over 
the whole of Addis Ababa. The name Addis Ababa meant 'new flower' in 
Amharic, and tonight Zalelew could see the insight in that name. That was 
what the city was, tonight; a glowing, sprawling flower in the night.

He turned when he heard the sound of cars arriving behind him. Doors 
opening. Then his cousin's voice. "Zalelew!"

She hugged him. He kissed her cheeks. "Taytu," he said. Then, releasing her, 
he hugged Desta and Ibrahem to him. Desta Aweke was the Minister of 
Agriculture and a powerful ally in the government who had rallied support 
for Zalelew in the hours after Menes' death. Ibrahem Ashenafi was the 
half-Somali son of the mayor of Addis Ababa and a member of the assembly in 
the Ministry of Defence. He'd been at Jesus College, Cambridge, with Zalelew 
in their days as undergraduates.

"I thought there was supposed to be a party happening tonight," said 
Ibrahem, smiling.

"There is. But there are a few things for us to do before we join it, 
brother," said Zalelew. He looked at them. These three were his special 
cadre, his strongest allies, the only three he could trust. He smiled, and 
clasped Ibrahem's hand.

"The first thing we must do is to keep the capital," he said. "The 
supporters of the CUD will be out on the streets in numbers tomorrow."

Ibrahem nodded. "The Konjowochu should be out there in numbers too, keeping 
a lid on things." The Konjowochu were the feared Federal Police, 
professional and ruthless.

"Yes," said Zalelew.

"The last thing we need now is more bloodshed," said Desta. "Not with the 
capital as restless as it is."

"Sometimes a little blood has to be shed," says Taytu. "Like when a child is 
born." Taytu, ever the poet.

"Yes," Ibrahem said, nodding. He swept his hand over the cityscape before 
them. "Even if there is a little bloodshed, like in childbirth, the nation 
will survive and grow up strong. Like a child grows into a man."

"Or a woman," said Desta, looking at Taytu and grinning.

"Make it so," said Zalelew to Ibrahem. "Meles wasn't afraid to impose his 
will through the Konjowochu. Neither will I be."

He looked up at the stars, then back at the three of them. "And the army," 
he said. "They're still politicised and still dangerous. I want them brought 
properly to heel."

"Ninety percent of them support the EPRDF," said Desta.

"I want the other ten percent kept under close watch," said Zalelew. "I 
won't have even a sniff of revolt. If rabble-rousers in the army and the 
opposition join forces, there'll be trouble." The army had always been the 
most powerful element of Ethiopian society - like it had in much of Africa. 
It had numbered 250,000 under the Derg, and now, despite those numbers 
having fallen to 140,000, it was still one of the biggest armies in Africa, 
and among the best equipped and trained. American military expertise had 
been given freely in exchange for support in the War on Terror in the Horn 
of Africa.

"Any senior officers who are suspected of being supporters of the opposition 
should be moved to commands outside of Addis Ababa," she said. "To the 3rd 
Military District, in Gonder. That's the region most loyal to you. There, 
those officers won't be able to stir up as much trouble as they would here."

Zalelew laughed. "Why did we never choose you to be Prime Minister, cousin?" 
he asked.

"We women have to let you men have your fun," she said, grinning back at 
him.

He smiled. Taytu. In all his family it was her eyes, not those of his father 
(Dean of the University of Addis Ababa), his mother (Constitutional Lawyer), 
or any of his brothers and sisters, which watched his progress the most 
carefully, and it was her smile of pride and satisfaction that he worked for 
- not that of his father or mother or any of his family. Taytu was the 
special one.


He turned and looked back over the city below them. It was a flower, he 
decided. A beautiful flower. Home of 80 nationalities who spoke 80 
languages, a city of churches, synagogues and mosques, a city with the 
largest open-air bazaar on earth and the seat of one of the most ancient 
African kingdoms. But even as he looked out over it he felt its 
vulnerability. His city, and his nation, were in danger.

"Ethiopia is a herd of goats, my friends," he said. "And it is surrounded by 
wolves. Wolves from Eritrea, wolves from the Sudan, Somalian wolves, Kenyan 
wolves. The wolves of drought, of erosion, of poverty." He turned around and 
smiled at them. "We are the shepherds, and we have to fight off those 
wolves. It will be tough. These wolves are lean and hungry."


======================================


ACTIONS

1. Ensure that the capital's streets are safe and orderly. Mass protests and 
demonstrations are expected by supporters of the Coalition for Unity and 
Democracy; the Konjowochu (Federal Police) and the regular City Police must 
be out in large numbers - armed if necessary - and, while they are told to 
exercise restraint, they must have the option of the use of force.

2. Ensure the loyalty of the army to the current government. The 
overwhelming majority are EPRDF supporters, Wami knows, but he'd like to 
know if any senior officers are supporters of the Coalition for Unity and 
Democracy and who they are. Any such officers should be shifted to the 3rd 
Military District in Gonder - they won't be able to cause trouble there.

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