[War] Japan: "Musings of a Mentor"

[Ian Martell]

"Musings of a Mentor"
Prime Minister Shunichi Sato
Japan
July 21st 2006

It was said that in Japanese politics that one could not succeed without the 
three “bans”; jiban: a strong constituency; kanban: a prestigious 
appointment and finally kaban: a briefcase full of money. The Sato name and 
Shunichi’s personal skills had insured him the first one in Tochigi’s Fifth 
District, however all the rest he owed to one man, his Oyabun, Jiro Oda.  It 
was Oda who had put Sato in touch with influential businessmen looking to 
make friends in the Diet who funded his first campaign, and once in office 
it had been Oda’s influence who had opened doors to key committee posts, and 
eventually posts in the party’s upper echelon culminating in his appointment 
to Cabinet in the 1998 Obuchi government as Minister of Infrastructure and 
Transport and from there to Koizumi’s Minister of Justice and finally Prime 
Minister himself.

So despite the fact it ought to be the private citizen who is honoured by 
the visit of the Prime Minister things were the reverse and it was Sato who 
played the junior role as the two men sat down to drink sake in the Prime 
Minister’s residence.

Oda gave an appreciating look around the small private study and shook his 
head. “You’ve been busy haven’t you?” he asked.

Sato nodded smiling. “It shows doesn’t it? I haven’t really unpacked yet.”

“I see that” said Oda as he swallowed his cup of warm sake in a single quick 
action. “And where is Mariko? Shouldn’t the set up of your residence be here 
responsibility?” he asked of Sato’s wife.

“In Nikko, she was here for my attestation as you likely saw on the news, 
but she went back to the family home after that, she’s never liked Tokyo 
much and she has her own public life there.

Sato dutifully poured the next cup of sake for Oda.

“Hmmph, country women. And you Shunichi are too liberal, the wife of the 
Prime Minister should not be running about the countryside. She has a duty 
to see that your home life runs smoothly so you do not need to deal with 
them yourself on top of running the country,” Oda said then coughed a dry 
and unhealthy sounding cough.

Sato’s concern at the cough must have shown because Oda smiled away the 
look. “My return for my patronage of Japan Tobacco,” he smiled. “They always 
said they’d get me for not supporting its privatization.”

Sato smiled at the joke despite his concern. Oda was in his eighties now 
sickness could be very serious at his age as Sato knew only too well. His 
father had died only the year before under similar circumstances.

“You should see a doctor,” Sato advised.

“Oh I do, little good it does, I get every cold that goes around, even in 
summer so it seems, and I can’t simply live in a bubble what would become of 
the Japanese government?”

Sato smiled. “What would become of it if you were gone? The Mori faction 
would have no one to keep them in check,” he said glad the subject of his 
home life had been left behind.

Oda smiled and downed his second cup of sake.

“May the Kami save us all,” Oda grinned as he held up his empty cup in mock 
toast.

Sato raised his own cup and nodded. “Indeed.”

Sato poured a third cup for Oda as he continued. “What do you think of the 
New Komeito situation?”

“Troubling if not unexpected it is natural for any party to want to remain 
in a position of influence for as long as possible, especially when their 
President is in such need of successes to keep his job.” Oda said then 
seeing Sato about to pour his own drink he said. “Here, here, I’m old not a 
barbarian, nobody has poured their own drink when they are sitting with me 
and I won’t abide it now.”

Oda took the carafe in a shaky hand and through an effort of sheer will it 
seemed poured it cleanly into Sato’s cup.

“Thank you,” Sato said quietly holding up his cup to Oda before downing it.

Oda nodded and sat back and sipped from his own. “Perhaps we’ve had enough 
sake tonight,” he said. “My coordination is going on me.”

Sato nodded benignly but he knew it wasn’t the previous two cups of sake 
that made his Oyabun’s hands shake like that. He was sicker than he was 
letting on. Still it was clear that was not a subject up for discussion so 
Sato moved back to the topic of the New Komeito Party.

“And do you think Soka Gakkai can be convinced to change it’s support to 
another member of the party? Like Ishikawa for example?”

“Aoki Ishikawa and they have had their disputes, however, the Soka Gakkai 
can be reasonable if they believe Ishikawa’s leadership of the New Komeito 
advances their agenda they will support him.”

Sato nodded and playing the role of dutiful pupil asked. “And how do we 
accomplish that?”

“As usual the carrot and the stick. You tell them you will not deal with 
Kanzaki after his holding Article 9 hostage and that you are removing him 
from cabinet in favour of Ishikawa. They will understand what you mean to 
accomplish. Then, when they come to you with their proposal to end this 
dispute, you must accept it if it is reasonable.”

“And what would you think to be reasonable?”

“We promise to hold the necessary referendum on the Amendment as part of the 
ballot in next year’s elections for the House of Councillors. It will give 
them a greater measure of necessity than if we proceeded right to the 
referendum after the passage of the amendment in the Diet, and will save the 
government money after all. In the end we all win, even the taxpayer.”

“Except Kanzaki,” Sato said in contemplation.

“Yes, except for him but the man was beyond reason in being so inflexible 
about the timing of this amendment as I have always tried to teach you 
Shunichi, it is flexibility that ensures survival in our world.”

Sato nodded. It was an old lesson and one he’d learned well.  Still his 
initial anger at Kanzaki’s actions was fading and he couldn’t help but think 
of how this would be a death blow to Kanzaki’s political career. He shut 
that thought away and move on to other topics.

“What is your thoughts on Lebanon?” Sato asked.

“It shows that Israel is a reasonable nation, what was it your favourite 
Machiavelli said of the Romans?”

“That when they saw trouble coming they always employed counter measures and 
never to avoid a war, allowed them to continue because they knew that war 
would be inevitable and delaying only put the advantage in the hands of the 
enemy,” Sato replied paraphrasing The Prince. A book he’d studied many times 
since first discovering it in college.

“Exactly,” Oda said. “They saw trouble coming and headed it off, the Iranian 
satellite states in their region were gaining power and the moderate states 
were losing influence, they needed to check this advance or they would be 
facing a much larger war in the future perhaps even on Israeli soil.”

“And how do you think this scenario will end?” asked Sato.

Oda smiled. “I am not one of those palm readers housewives waste their money 
on Shunichi, but my best guess would be that it will mean that Israel will 
need to occupy a portion of Lebanon again to deny it’s use as a launching 
site for Hezbollah rockets.”

“But if the Lebonese government could reclaim that territory?”

Oda laughed. “Yes, if the Lebanese government wasn’t a cuckolded by 
Hezbollah.”

Sato laughed at the apt analogy. Hezbollah was not simply radical Muslims 
with bombs strapped to their chests. It had become an integral part of the 
life of the poorer Lebonese Shiite Muslims; their civilian arm provided them 
with hospitals, money for schools essentially all the services that the 
Lebonese government could or would not. So it was no wonder that the hearts 
and minds of so many of the people belonged to them. Then of course there 
was the military arm which was trained and well organized. Sato could not 
imagine how powerless a government would have to be to allow essentially a 
private army to form within its borders. Cuckholds indeed, he thought.

“Well,” he said. “What can we do to make a difference?”

Oda smiled. “Shunichi, still the idealist I see,” he said. “But I warn you 
it is the poor farmer who plants his neighbour’s field when there is work to 
be done in his own. Let the United Kingdom and India have this crisis, you 
already have North Korea to deal with.”

Sato nodded though a moment too slow and Oda gave him a quizzical look.

“I was thinking that Koizumi was right. The duties of Prime Minister do not 
always allow you to do as you would wish to.”

“All duties are so, Shunichi,” Oda said. “The sooner we accept it the sooner 
we find happiness.”


Actions:

1> Set up a number of different plot threads.

Note: My last post set for the 21st I promise, just wanted to keep up 
continuity with the other posts that mentioned that Oda was coming to visit.

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