[War] China/Japan: "A Point of Agreement"

[Chazenesq2b at aol.com]

"A Point of Agreement" 
President Xia Hong, People's Republic of China
Prime Minister Shunichi Sato, Japan
July xx 2006


The Kantei guard and Chinese Presidential Security swept the steps of the
Kantei clear of press as the motorcade approached. Sato let out a sigh as he
left the air conditioned building and walked into the Tokyo's
seventy-percent humidty looking a tad heavier than normal under his light
weight suit because his people had insisted with the presence of foreign,
armed, security people that he wear at least light body armour.

"It was what saved President Bush," had been Chief Kumazaki's final
argument, Sato had no argument to offer against that so he suffered in
silence as he walked down the steps to meet President Hong's limo.


When she first looked at the limo she was to get into, she could hardly
believe it.  Xia considered herself a fortunate woman, to have married well,
been
born fairly well, and having been blessed with the work ethic to earn what
she
wanted.  Still, she'd never driven in anything so luxurious as a limo
before.
Granted, she had nice cars... but not limos.

She also didn't usually have submachine gun bearing security officers and
political advisors with her all the time either, but so be it.  They seemed
like
a fairly nice group, she even managed to make some small talk with one of
the
guards and a pair of diplomatic aides.  It bounced around, but naturally was
focussed on politics... the very many growing pains facing China.  There was
a
lot of work for her to do... and this first over-seas visit was designed to
be
a begining of things to come.

The Limo came to a stop at it's appointed designation.  First naturally the
two security agencies traded information through a translator and scouted
the
area for threats.  A few minutes later it was pronounced safe, and Xia was
all
too willing to get out.  She smoothed out the skirt she wore before
standing,
the music of anthems in the background.  She was tall for an Asian woman,
well
half-Asian, standing 5'9, and had fairer than normal skin to accompany
clearly ethnically mixed features.  One could say she was quite literally
the
new
face of China.

As the President got out of her car Sato watched her intently. He was a man
of the new Japan more liberal than most men his age, but the idea of a woman
leading any East Asian country was to his mind something that was not due to
happen for some time yet, but here she was, the most powerful Chinese
president in years, and though it galled him to admit it, the most powerful
person in Asia as well.

He bowed respectfully as one equal to another. "Welcome to Tokyo Madam
President," he said.

Xia smiled, returning the gesture.  "It's a pleasure to meet you in this
great city, Mister Prime Minister.  I've come to admire Tokyo, and Japan, a
great
deal."  There was a bit of a delay ofcourse, as Xia was hardly fluent in
Japanese, and the translator had to provide a more clean statement.  "Our
two
nations have much to discuss, shall we?"

“Indeed,” said Sato. “This way Madam President.”

He led the President inside and after leaving her in the care of his cabinet
who had turned out to meet her, changed out of the body armour before they
sat for the obligatory, though brief, press spray before they retired to the
Prime Minister’s private meeting room which had been decorated especially
for the conference with Japanese and Chinese ink brush works from the
pre-war period when cultural exchange between the two countries eclipsed
current levels. The paintings as a result were remarkably similar in style
and taste. Sato hoped the message of a desire for a return to those glory
days was clearly delivered as he sat down across from President Hong.

Taking a moment to put on his reading glasses to allow President Hong a
chance to take in the room, Sato opened the folder in front of his seat
which held their agenda and through his translator said: “I see our staffs
have chosen for us to butt heads right at the start. North Korea is the
first matter on the agenda,” he said as though it was the first time he had
seen the agenda’s final draft as a means of apology for beginning the
meeting with such a divisive issue.

Such minutie was typically lost on Xia, however in this case the brush
paintings gave the room a curious, beautiful look of antiquity.  Secretly
she
was
rather jealous... there wasn't any reason a powerful nation like China
shouldn't
have a proper capitol.  It would definitely be something that eventually,
she
would have to handle.  "That's quite all right, Prime Minister.  Your taste
in art definitely suggests to me you are a man of wisdom, and good faith."
Xia
gave a smile as she sat down across from him.

Sato let his expression of Confucian dignity dissolve at the mention of the
art and smiled warmly at her compliments. An expression with the addition of
his reading glasses, that made him look grandfatherly despite his hair’s
stubborn refusal to turn grey.

“I am not sure about the wisdom but I can assure you I have always kept my
word,” he said with traditional Japanese humility.

"I would never have thought any less."  Xia offered a friendly smile before
diving head long into the topic before them.  "North Korea's missile tests
concern us as well.  Granted, we are not directly threatened, but their
over-zealous and ill advised efforts threaten to destabilize our entire
region... this
is something which would have direct consequences for China, and between us
Prime Minister, something my government will not allow."

Sato nodded, the grandfather and the statesman sharing equal parts in his
expression. “I think any wisdom there might be at this table is seated in
your chair Madam President,” he said with an inclination of his head. “That
is an apt assessment of the situation and it is also the one I had planned
to present to you. So as we are in agreement the question now is of course,
how do we deal with them in a way that best stabilizes East Asia and thusly
serves our nation’s interests?”

"The current regime in Pyongyang is too rigid to be expected to change
course, and seeking further economic penalties will only cause greater
suffering
among the general population of North Korea.  There are, however, a number
of
methods that might be employed to pressure Pyongyang into changing it's
ways."
Accepting a folder from her aide, she then in turn offered it to her
Japanese
counterpart.  It was translated already, ofcourse.  "With international
assistance, China would be willing to establish refugee centers, and begin
taking in
all those willing to relocate.  We can expect Pyongyang to move to close the
borders quickly, but those people we could get out would be a powerful
statement to the rest of the world on the conditions in North Korea.
Furthermore, we
can increase propoganda operations designed to instigate policy change
within
the country." She was, after all, a Political Commissar in the PLA when
young.
Psychological Operations Xia understood.  "Then, there's the presentation of
a united front against North Korea, making the point it's missile tests were
a disaster, and finally, if need be, there is always a military option."

Sato perused the folder quickly as the President spoke then looked up. “Well
I cannot say my government would support a military option of any kind as
our official stance is one of peaceful resolution to any international
conflict. However these other programs I believe could be supported by
Japan, the refugee idea especially. May I also suggest we involve the UN in
the refugee plan, if only in the capacity of requesting the visits of
goodwill ambassadors to speak with the refugees and spread the word of North
Korea’s abuses of its citizens. I believe that would go a long way in
securing a united front in the international community,” Sato said before
continuing. “Speaking of which, I believe to achieve such a front between
our two nations it would be necessary we both employ economic reprisals
against the North Korean’s in the manner of Japan’s embargo.”

Sato nodded to Akira who had been serving as his own aide who handed
President Hong a folder.
“Now let me say I agree with you, embargo’s such as these hurt the people of
North Korea and not its government and to compensate for that fact I would
humbly ask you to relay this offer to the North Korean government. In
exchange for returning to the six-party talks and stopping all development
and testing of its missile technology and submitting to inspections by your
government to verify that, Japan would end its embargo and be willing to
offer a 5.8 billion tied Yen Loan (about 50 mil USD) to provide
infrastructure to the poorer areas of North Korea. The loan would be
interest free but would carry the proviso that while North Koreans will be
employed to do the work, only Japanese firms will be contracted to oversee
it and only Japanese suppliers will be used unless we are unable to supply
the needed items. This is necessary to ensure that the money will be spent
only on infrastructure developments and also to appease the conservative
elements in Japan who will question the wisdom of providing money to our
most dangerous enemy.”

"I will certainly forward your most gracious offer through our embassy in
Pyongyang.  This does bring me to an item of concern for my government,
being
Japan's current level of military readiness.  Some in my government continue
to
see our two nations not as mutual leaders of Asia, but as competitors and,
dare
I say adversaries.  So far I've been able to refrain from responding in kind
out of concern for aggrivating an already delicate situation, however it
would
be politically easier to make the case for remaining calm if Japan was to
take the step of reducing it's current state."

Sato let out a breath and sat back and took off his glasses. "I see," he
said. "We too have members of our government who hold simular views of China
and would gladly see this state of readiness continue if North Korea were to
cease to become a threat. I however would prefer to think that we could come
to some compromise here and now to prevent those opinions from becoming the
majority in both our countries. So keeping in mind that we are not going to
sit defenceless in the face of Pyongyang's threat's to our security, what
would you think would make your government more comfortable about our
security situation?"

"There is a difference between being prepared, and taking a pro-active
stance."  Xia could see they wouldn't get through this as easily as they
seemed
to settle on the fact that North Korea needed to be dealt with.  "Can your
forces
not remain ready in a more cautious and reserved manner?"

"I feel I have been both cautious and reserved in this matter. Wars have
been started for less than what Pyongyang did, I have merely ordered my
forces to a enact a proportionate response. That said I am willing to stand
down my naval forces involved in the enforcing of the embargo and all armed
military aircraft as well and leave it to my Coast Guard and unarmed
surveilance craft. Will that statisfy your government of my peaceful
intent?"

She smiled.  "Immensely, I believe.  It should certainly be sufficient
rationale not to raise China's alert status.  I do believe, mister Prime
Minister,
that we have a frame-work for a course of action with regards to North
Korea."

Sato nodded his agreement. "It seems we do, though if you could give us
advanced warning on the opening of the borders we'd like to pass on that
date if you have no objections to various sympathetic ears inside the
country."

This peaked her curiosity, as noted by the rising of a brow.  "I'm afraid
I'm
unsure of what you mean by sympathetic ears, sir?"

Sato noting the Chinese President's curiosity replied: "People in the North
Korean villages who we have befriended over the years," Sato said. "I
believe we could get our message about the border out through them."

"Are these friends... North Korean?"  To some it might have seemed a stupid
question, but the fact was that Xia wondered just how Japan came across
these
'people'.  It smacked of some ongoing intelligence operation.

Sato nodded. "Yes," he said deciding that he could be open about the nature
of the activities these 'friends' were courted for. President Hong did not
seem in favour of the Pyongyang regime and he doubted even if she was to
reveal to Pyongyang that Japan had spies in their country, that the spies
would still remain annonmyous as there were many villagers in North Korea.
"Understanding that this is being said to you in confidence, we have been
for some time recruiting North Koreans to keep watch on North Korea's
military. It would be those people we would contact to pass along our
message about the border."

This was one of those situations where they both seemed to have each other
at
the throat.  She didn't want to jeopardize the possibility of warming
relationships with Japan, a potential massive market and economic partner,
but
at the
same time having Japanese spies so close to China itself, especially those
which could as easily slip through the border with the villagers as anything
else, was discomforting to say the least.  Licking her lips, she thought
very
much, very quickly, about the situation.  "I believe I can accomodate you,
provided Japan makes no attempt at using these spies on China, should they
slip
through the boarder as well, and that you understand, should Pyongyang, or
North
Korea as a whole, become politically unstable, China will need to respond
with
a stabilization force to ensure the orderly and safe transition to a new
government.  Naturally, as North Korea shares a border with us, the hard
line
elements in my government would be driven mad if it were revealed that Japan
has
been indulging in internal North Korean affairs, however understandable it
may
be to the rest of us."

Sato nodded. "Then I will do my utmost to make sure those elements do not
find out," he said as a joke to break the tension then laid it all out on
the table. "But in all seriousness Madam President, it is not my intent to
alienate China in any way, as you can see," he indicated the paintings. "And
I will offer you my private assurance, my word to you person to person, that
we will not use our North Korean sources against China in anyway. Those who
decide to cross the border will either be dissavowed and cut off from
further employment as intelligence sources in their new country, or our
people working at the camps will remove them to Japan and you can be assured
their return to China would be only with your permission."

Sato took a sip of water from the glass by his position at the table. "This
said, I would like to have a clear definition of what you would consider
political instability so we are playing with the same set of rules."

"Political instability is hard to define, particularly in a nation as poor
off as North Korea already is.  But I think we both agree in the event of a
post- Kim Jong Il regime, that massive amounts of humanitarian aid will need
to
be
delivered and defended... that essential services will need to be provided,
and that deliveries of food and supplies are made with escorts.  A military
operation would be the only way to insure law and order, particularly if
experiences in Iraq are to be taken into consideration.  China has a far
better
relationship with North Korea than most in the international community, and
thus
would be the logical choice for keeping the peace."  Xia went for her own
glass,
adding... "especially given we would undoubtedly be faced with repopulating
any Korean refugees we accept.  Though we would of course appreciate any
support,
logic dictates that China be the lead nation in the response to such an
event."

Since receiving what he had dubbed the Yoshida Plan, he had been thinking
about the shape a post Kim Jong-Il regime would take, or rather a post KPA
regime. Needless to say major Chinese influence would likely not sit well
with his own hardliners, who wouldn't be much inclined to welcome Kim Jong
-Il's missiles replaced by the world's largest airforce. Neither would Sato
for that matter, or the US or South Korea.

"I would say that South Korea might have a different view of that logic, the
US as well," he added. "As for Japan with the number of North Korean ports
on the Sea of Japan, we would be I think best suited for handling the
distribution of aid in the eastern coast however this a purely theoretical
discussion and if such a thing were to occur we would need to sit down then
and discuss where each nation involved would have responsibilities."

"Any move by South Korea into North Korean territory would be considered an
act of war by the North Korean people... and an unprovoked entry of a
peacekeeping force would trigger precisely that, which would in turn
inevitably
lead to Chinese entry.  That's a situation I believe it's in our mutual best
interest
to avoid.  This being said, the United States is bogged down with events in
the Middle East, particularly with Iraq.  Neither nation would be able to
field
a large enough force to prevent major upheavel in North Korea.  China
however
has the manpower, the political, economic, and diplomatic influences, and
the
military capability to be a stabilizing force in the country.  I'm sure your
great nation would be more than welcomed to assist in Humanitarian efforts,
however I must insist in this case that South Korea and the West remain at a
distance from China's borders."

"Yes, well it would be something to negotiate if and when this occurs, and
if it does, I will be glad to offer Japan as a mediator for any dispute you
might have with the South Koreans or the West. However I do agree, China has
what is needed to do the job."

Sato took another drink of water.

"How about we put this issue to rest for now, we've agreed on our immediate
strategy, and the rest will depend on how North Korea reacts to it. So I
propose we meet the week of the opening of the border either here or in
Beijing to discuss our next steps and to meet face to face about any
concerns we may have at that time," then Sato thought of something else.
"Also, if you would be willing I further propose we set up weekly phone
calls between us, this would allow for us to discuss the major issues facing
our nations in a timely manner, and help stave off any conflicts that might
occur; what do you think?"

"I think that's something I can agree to on both terms."  Xia smiled.  "An
open line of communication and dialogue is ofcourse always preferred.  Shall 
we
move on to the issues presented by the Middle East?"

"Agreed," Sato said as the folders in front of both leaders were changed.

Actions:

China:
1> Prepare the border with North Korea to be opened to refugees, quietly set 
up refugee centers.

Japan:
1> Reduce forces involved in the embargo to Coast Guard ships and unarmed 
surveilance aircraft from the JSDF. Fully armed JSDF craft both air and sea 
shall be kept ready to assist if needed however.
2> Quietly amass aid from private and public sources for North Korean 
refugees to be distributed by the Japanese Red Cross.
3> Offer to end the embargo if North Korea rejoins the Six-Party Talks and 
ceases production and testing of any more missiles to be verified by Chinese 
inspections. In return the Japanese government will offer 50 million USD in 
aid to help build infrastructure in the rural areas of North Korea. This aid 
will be delivered through Japanese contractors to ensure the money is spent 
on infrastructure, but will employ North Korean workers.

Both:
1> Issue a joint statement of condemnation of North Korea's actions.
2> Set up a summit in Beijing for after the opening of the border to 
refugees and establish weekly phone calls between the two leaders.
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